The NBA’s offseason in 2025 promises to be full of significant moves and changes, similar to what was seen during the trade deadline of the current season. Eyes are on several stars and teams that could reshape the league landscape.
The Bucks and the Suns are two of the ten teams that will be closely watched this summer, along with the 2024 champions, the Boston Celtics. These teams could be key in redefining the offseason.
Boston Celtics
“The Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has been known for years. There are penalties associated with being at certain levels, and we know that. We have to weigh that. We have to weigh where we are. We have to weigh everything else, and then make those decisions.”
Brad Stevens, May 2025
Brad Stevens, Celtics’ president of basketball operations, is aware of his team’s situation, which projects a $500 million payroll and the restrictions imposed by exceeding the second apron of the salary cap.
Unlike the previous season, where the NBA title justified a high investment, Boston’s performance is under scrutiny after their elimination in the second round of the playoffs, where Jayson Tatum suffered an Achilles tendon injury.
The Celtics exceed the second apron by $23 million, and unless the Brooklyn Nets are willing to absorb Kristaps Porzingis’ $30.7 million contract, there is no direct path to reduce the payroll with a single trade. Reducing the salary will likely require multiple moves. Since Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Derrick White are under contract through at least the 2028-29 season, Boston must balance cost-cutting with its championship goals.- Group contracts sent in a trade.
- Use more than 100% of the traded player exception.
- Send cash.
- Use a pre-existing trade exception.
- Sign a released player with a salary of at least $14.1 million.
The Celtics’ first-round pick in 2033 will be frozen (the one in 2032 already is) if they finish the 2025-26 season above the second apron.
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets have two unique advantages this offseason: four first-round picks in June and over $40 million in cap space.“If you’re going for top-level talent, they automatically have to change the trajectory of your team. This can’t be like, ‘we’re going to sign this [player]’ and lock ourselves into being the 6-7 seed. When we go all in, you’re going to compete at the highest level and fight for the championship.”
Sean Marks, April 2025
However, unlike the 2019 offseason, when Durant and Kyrie Irving signed as free agents, the current roster is not ready to compete for the championship, even with the addition of an All-NBA player.
Therefore, Brooklyn is a candidate to sign free agents with inflated contracts, take salaries in exchange for draft picks, and target restricted free agents with an offer.
Brooklyn cannot use most of its available salary cap space during the regular season. Teams must spend 90% of the salary cap before the first day of the regular season. Including their first four picks, Brooklyn has $79 million in salaries and will need to spend an additional $60 million.Denver Nuggets
“We definitely need to find a way to get more depth. It seems like the teams that have longer rotations, longer benches, are the ones winning. Indiana, OKC, Minnesota.”
Nikola Jokic, May 2025
The comments from the three-time MVP did not surprise Nuggets president Josh Kroenke. “I heard Jokic’s comments loud and clear. I mean, I think he was thinking that before those words came out of his mouth,” he said last month.
Jokic has three years left on his contract, and there’s a sense of urgency to improve the roster, specifically the bench. The Nuggets’ starters averaged 94.4 points in the regular season, the most for any team since the 1986-87 season, according to ESPN Research.
The Nuggets have three options to strengthen their depth.- Develop the former draft picks Jalen Pickett, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Hunter Tyson, and DaRon Holmes as consistent rotation players.
- Through trades. Because Denver has a first-round pick available in 2031 or 2032, their only tangible asset is Michael Porter Jr. The forward averaged a career-high 18.2 points this season and is owed $38.3 and $40.8 million, respectively, in the next two seasons. Denver also has the combined $13.5 million in salary of Zeke Nnaji and Dario Saric. Because Denver is projected to be a first-apron team, they are not allowed to take back salary in a trade.
- Through free agency. This path seems unlikely as the Nuggets have high salaries with Jokic, Jamal Murray, Porter, and Aaron Gordon, who comprise 82% of their total payroll. Furthermore, the first year of Murray’s extension puts Denver above the first apron again. Unless a trade materializes to free up salaries, Denver only has the veteran minimum exception available.
Golden State Warriors
“We are good at giving whatever is necessary. It just depends on how good we think it will make our team. I think the only problem with mortgaging the future is you don’t want to get caught. I don’t want to be in a situation where we give a lot, put all our chips in, and then, 10 games into the season, we have a catastrophic injury, have nowhere to go, and then we’re stuck for four or five years.”
Mike Dunleavy Jr., May 2025
Golden State’s general manager, Dunleavy, has the draft assets to go all-in.
The Warriors can trade up to four first-round picks starting from draft night: 2026, 2028, 2030 (if it’s 1-20) and 2032. They also have the right to swap first-round picks in the next seven years if their 2030 pick is in the top 20.But the problem will be if the Warriors can put together a salary package that is substantial enough for a trade without including Draymond Green or Jimmy Butler III. Curry, Butler, and Green represent 85% of Golden State’s payroll. The remaining six players under contract will earn a total of $30 million next season. Salary restrictions are the reason why Jonathan Kuminga plays a fundamental role in the Warriors’ offseason.
The Warriors are expected to offer him a qualifying offer of one year and $7.9 million, making him a restricted free agent. With Brooklyn being the only team offering a starting salary of $20 million or more (Golden State would have the right to match), the best option could be to explore a sign-and-trade. There are two challenges in a sign-and-trade, besides Kuminga having to sign at least a three-year contract with the first year guaranteed. First, only 50% of Kuminga’s outgoing salary is used in a trade, not the full amount. (For example, if the salary in the first year is $30 million, $15 million counts as outgoing salary and $30 million comes in for the acquiring team).Golden State is also $25 million below the first threshold. It would not be allowed to sign a player earning more than that amount unless additional salary is included.
Houston Rockets
“I think continuity for the sake of continuity is not what we’re trying to achieve. Continuity is great, but the ultimate goal is to build a championship team. And if we believe there’s a move or a series of moves that make that more likely, then we would ignore continuity and make those moves.”
Rafael Stone (via Houston Chronicle)
If the Rockets’ general manager is willing to forgo continuity to acquire an All-NBA player, then expect them to be aggressive this offseason.
Houston meets the three most important requirements for acquiring a superstar:
- Draft Equity: Houston has five negotiable first-round picks over the next seven years, including the tenth pick in this year’s draft and unprotected first-round picks in 2027 (Phoenix) and 2029 (Phoenix or Dallas). The Rockets can also trade first-round picks in 2028, 2030, and 2032.
- Controllable Contracts: The Rockets have five players, Jabari Smith Jr, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, and Amen Thompson, on first-round rookie contracts.
- Considerable Contracts: Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green signed rookie extensions last October. The poison pill restriction on their contracts lifts on July 1, making them trade-eligible. Both players are slated to earn $33 million next season. Brooks has two years remaining on his contract ($22.1 million and $20.9 million).
The Rockets were at their best in their first-round series against Golden State when Adams teamed up with Sengun. When both players were on the court this postseason, Houston had a 30.7-point advantage per 100 possessions compared to 30 in the regular season.
Houston is right at the first threshold when including team options for VanVleet, Aaron Holiday, and Jock Landale’s non-guaranteed contract.Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers’ general manager, Pelinka, attempted to acquire Charlotte Hornets center Mark Williams at the deadline to provide Luka Doncic with an alley-oop threat and help fill the void left by Anthony Davis’s trade. But the trade was rescinded after a failed physical examination.“I think when you make a big trade at the deadline, where you trade your starting center for a point guard, of course, that’s going to create significant problems with the roster, and we saw some of them. We know that this offseason, one of our main goals is going to be to add size to our frontcourt at the center position.”
Rob Pelinka, May 2025
While the Lakers don’t have cap space to sign free agent Myles Turner, for example, Los Angeles has a 2031 or 2032 first-round pick, five years of pick swaps, the 2024 first-round pick Dalton Knecht, and over $70 million in expiring contracts (Reaves, Dorian Finney-Smith, Rui Hachimura, Maxi Kleber, and Gabe Vincent) to use in a trade.
The Lakers will continue playing with a win-now approach with LeBron James on the roster and building a sustainable roster for the future centered around Doncic. He is eligible to sign a four-year, $229 million extension on August 2nd.
Milwaukee Bucks
“The fact of not having a second championship… I look at my career and everyone can say: ‘Oh, incredible career, active Hall of Famer, first vote, whatever’. But I, my personal goal, if I can’t help my team win a second ring, I’m disappointing myself.”
Giannis Antetokounmpo, April 2025 (via Thanalysis podcast)
The Bucks will be the center of the NBA universe this offseason for two reasons.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported in mid-May that Antetokounmpo is open to exploring whether his best long-term fit is to remain with the Bucks or elsewhere.
Antetokounmpo is under contract for the next three seasons, with 2027-28 as a player option. The two-time 30-year-old MVP will be eligible to sign a four-year, $293.4 million extension in the 2026 offseason, either with the Bucks or a new team.And like any offseason, Milwaukee is against the clock to get a championship for the former MVP.
Improving the roster with many high-level players could prove difficult this summer. Milwaukee cannot trade multiple first-round picks and can currently only move their 2031 or 2032 pick. Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard, and Kyle Kuzma will earn a combined total of $130 million of the Bucks’ $164 million payroll next season.
Lillard will turn 35 in July and is owed $113 million over the next two years while recovering from a ruptured Achilles tendon. Lopez, Bobby Portis, Taurean Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., and Gary Trent Jr. could become free agents this summer. (Portis and Porter have player options). However, there are positives. Milwaukee is no longer in financial purgatory and can add in free agency or via a trade. It also plays in a very open Eastern Conference, where there is no prohibitive favorite next season.Orlando Magic
“We are ready to turn the page on our rebuild and enter the next stage of our team and look at it through a more win-now lens.”
Jeff Weltman, April 2025
We don’t want to call Weltman conservative, but Orlando’s head of basketball operations has tried to balance the situation in the draft, development, retention, and competition for a spot among the top six in the Eastern Conference recently.
Since 2021, Orlando has built through the draft. The Magic have a record number of nine players selected in the draft and only two, Wendell Carter Jr. and Gary Harris, acquired via trade. The strategy has worked temporarily, as Orlando reached the first round of the playoffs in consecutive seasons. But it has also failed to advance on both occasions, and with the early years of Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs’ extensions about to begin, the Magic project to be above the luxury tax and the first threshold.How the Magic take the next step depends on Weltman’s adjustment when healthy, and whether Orlando can compete for a top-four spot in the Eastern Conference. The Magic went through the regular season with their top four scorers, Paolo Banchero, Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moritz Wagner, each missing at least 20 games. The core of Banchero, Suggs, and Wagner played only six games together and 3% of Orlando’s possessions.
The Magic have the draft assets and contracts to be aggressive this offseason if additional help is needed from the outside. The Magic became the first team since the 2016-17 Oklahoma City Thunder to rank last in three-point percentage and make the postseason. Not only do they have two first-round picks in this year’s draft, but also the ability to trade up to four in the next seven years. They are also entitled to swap first-round picks every season.
Phoenix Suns
“I want my career to end on my terms, that’s the only thing. That’s the only thing I’m worried about. Because I see a lot of guys who don’t have that opportunity, so I want to keep working to make that decision on my own.”
Kevin Durant, via “The Draymond Green Show with Baron Davis”
If Antetokounmpo is the 1A on teams’ wish lists this offseason, Durant is a close 1B.
The 37-year-old player averaged 26.6 points last season, the sixth-highest in the NBA, and has only averaged less than 25 points once, in his rookie season. After two disappointing and costly seasons, the Suns will likely reset their roster, starting with exploring trades for the star. Durant is in the final year of his contract, and without an extension or a trade, the Suns risk losing him for nothing next offseason.There are three factors that could influence the transfer package that Phoenix could receive:
- Can Phoenix fall below the second apron to add the sent contracts? Or below the first apron to use more than 100% of the traded player exception? The Suns are projected to exceed the second apron by $25 million, but they could shed a significant amount of salary if Cody Martin ($8.7 million) is waived, Vasilije Micic’s $8.1 million team option is declined, and Bradley Beal is bought out of his contract. The same apron rules apply to teams interested in acquiring Durant’s $54.6 million salary.
- Is Durant willing to sign a two-year, $112 million extension with his new team?
- Is the team trading for Durant still in a position to compete for a championship?
San Antonio Spurs
“It simply demonstrates that they are not here to waste time and that they are willing to take the next step in time. We are moving forward. I think it’s a good step in building our future.”
Victor Wembanyama, February 2025
Like Houston, San Antonio meets the requirements (draft assets, young players, considerable contracts, and a roster to win now) to add a third star alongside Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox.
San Antonio not only has two picks in the lottery, including the number 2, but the Spurs also have the right to swap first picks with the Atlanta Hawks in 2026, the Hawks’ unprotected first pick in 2027, and multiple pick swaps. The Spurs can also trade two of their own first-round picks (2029 and 2031 or 2030 and 2032). The Spurs have 17 second-round picks available to trade. They also have the advantage of financial flexibility to add sent contracts and recoup more salary in a trade. Entering the offseason, San Antonio is $32 and $44 million below both respective thresholds. Not including Fox and Wembanyama, the Spurs have 10 players earning between $3 and $27 million.
