Cooper Flagg’s chances of winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award have significantly improved thanks to the draft lottery.
The Dallas Mavericks, with the number one pick, give Flagg the opportunity to join a competitive team without the need to carry all the weight as a rookie. In addition, the other two top draft picks went to unexpected teams.
Dylan Harper, the second pick, will play for the San Antonio Spurs, behind De’Aaron Fox. VJ Edgecombe, the third pick, joins the Philadelphia 76ers, a team with many guards and contender aspirations.
These factors have made Flagg the clear favorite to win the Rookie of the Year award, with odds of -190. However, winning this award is not guaranteed, as demonstrated by the cases of Zion Williamson and Anthony Davis, who did not achieve the award despite expectations.
Here’s an analysis of Flagg’s potential competitors, grouped by category.
The Contenders
Ace Bailey, Utah Jazz (+1600)
Tre Johnson, Washington Wizards (+750)
Kon Knueppel, Charlotte Hornets (+2800)
The selections after Harper and Edgecombe were for rebuilding teams, which has historically favored Rookie of the Year award winners. Since the 2017-18 season, only one winner (Scottie Barnes in 2021-22) has played for a team with more than 46% wins.
Bailey, Johnson, and Knueppel join three of the worst NBA teams and should have significant minutes from the start. These three rookies, along with Flagg, are projected to average double figures in scoring.
Knueppel, Flagg’s teammate at Duke, could have the clearest opportunity to shine. The Hornets have young talents like LaMelo Ball and Brandon Miller, and they urgently need Knueppel’s shooting ability. Although Charlotte could line up Collin Sexton alongside Ball in the backcourt, Sexton would fit better as a substitute. Furthermore, Knueppel was more effective at Duke than other “one-and-done” players, which explains his position in the projections.
Johnson, the third-highest scorer in the summer league, could start at the shooting guard position in Washington, depending on how the Wizards use CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton. McCollum and Middleton do not seem to be in Washington’s long-term plans, and the team lacks playmakers, which opens an opportunity for Johnson.
Bailey could have the longest odds of this group because Utah’s offense might not favor his shot selection. Utah coach Will Hardy will surely push him toward higher-value shots, but the Jazz lost two of their best playmakers and are relying on recent draft picks to replace them.Kon Knueppel played one season (2024-25) at Duke alongside Cooper Flagg.
The Wildcards
Dylan Harper, San Antonio Spurs (+1000)
VJ Edgecombe, Philadelphia 76ers (+1200)
These odds reflect the players’ talent more than their opportunities. Edgecombe could have more chances if the Sixers decide to keep their pick.
However, Philadelphia’s guard rotation is filled with young talent. Tyrese Maxey is an All-Star and Jared McCain was the initial favorite for Rookie of the Year before an injury. The 76ers could also re-sign Quentin Grimes.
It’s unclear where the Spurs will find minutes for Harper. Playing with Fox could be tricky due to the lack of a three-point threat from both players. San Antonio also has its wing rotation, including Stephon Castle.VJ Edgecombe was selected by the Philadelphia 76ers with the third pick of the 2025 NBA draft.
The Not Favorites
Walter Clayton Jr., Utah Jazz (+3300)
Nique Clifford, Sacramento Kings (+5000)
Egor Demin, Brooklyn Nets (+7500)
Jeremiah Fears, New Orleans Pelicans (+5000)
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Charlotte Hornets (NR)
Derik Queen, New Orleans Pelicans (+7500)
This group includes “one-and-done” prospects and senior players who could contribute immediately.
Clayton and Clifford were two of the first three seniors selected after Cedric Coward, but Kalkbrenner could have the best chance to start. The Hornets no longer have a future center after trading Mark Williams, and Kalkbrenner could have the best chance to start of any player outside the lottery. If he gets minutes, Kalkbrenner should have good offensive numbers.
Demin will compete to be the starting point guard for Brooklyn, which saw D’Angelo Russell leave in free agency. The challenge will be to play efficiently in a Nets offense that features five first-round picks. Similar problems are foreseen for Fears and Queen in New Orleans.
Ultimately, the Rookie of the Year award will likely go to Flagg. We’ll see if another candidate can emerge to challenge the top pick.
