The NBA conference semifinals have presented an unprecedented scenario. For the first time in league history, the visiting teams won the first four games of the tournament. The surprise continued with victories by the visitors in the second games of the Eastern Conference.
This unexpected result is even more remarkable considering the dominance that the two best teams in the East, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics, showed during the regular season. Both teams surpassed 60 wins, with an average difference of 12 wins over the Indiana Pacers and the New York Knicks, who occupied lower positions in the table.
While the Eastern series take a break before resuming on Friday, with Indiana and New York holding 2-0 leads heading into their Games 3 and 4 at home, we analyze what went wrong for the favorites and what implications these surprises have for the chances of Boston and Cleveland reaching an Eastern final that seemed inevitable a week ago.
Cavaliers vs. Pacers: Donovan Mitchell needs urgent help
Like three of the visitors’ four wins in the first game, Indiana’s triumph was characterized by an unusual performance in three-point shooting. The Pacers made 19 of 36 attempts (53%) from beyond the arc, while the Cavaliers, who led in three-point shooting percentage during the regular season, hit only 9 of 38 (24%).
Unlike other instances, rest was not a valid explanation, as Indiana finished its five-game series against the Milwaukee Bucks a day after Cleveland completed its sweep of the Miami Heat.
The difference in shooting percentage decreased in Game 2, with the Pacers hitting 39% and the Cavaliers 28%. Despite the absence of Darius Garland, Defensive Player of the Year Evan Mobley, and key substitute De’Andre Hunter, Cleveland looked set to tie the series, leading by 17 points at the end of the third quarter and by seven before things got complicated.
The final minute included two Cavaliers turnovers and two offensive rebounds by Indiana after missed free throws, allowing Tyrese Haliburton to secure the victory with a standout performance.
However, Indiana’s position isn’t as dominant as it seems. Of the four highest-seeded teams that have lost 2-0 at home since 2021, three managed to force a Game 7, although two of them, the Celtics in the 2023 conference finals and the Denver Nuggets last year against the Minnesota Timberwolves, lost the final game at home.
Cleveland’s situation makes Friday’s Game 3 a must-win, putting the focus on the Cavaliers’ injuries. Hunter and Mobley suffered their injuries in the fourth quarter of Game 1, while Garland has missed the last four games, including the first round.
If Donovan Mitchell replicates the performance he had during the first 47 minutes of Game 2, Cleveland could win without them. Mobley’s reincorporation is key. Although Indiana had a more discreet performance in shots inside the area on Tuesday, the team scored 50 points in the paint, six more than Cleveland had allowed in any other playoff game, and 26 in the last quarter alone.
Hunter’s absence is inopportune, as he would be the logical replacement for Mobley in the lineup. Without Hunter, the Cavaliers only had two players over 6 feet 5 inches, starting center Jarrett Allen and substitute power forward Dean Wade. This left Cleveland’s second unit at a size disadvantage.
The Cavaliers have shown their ability to win without Garland, but his return would alleviate some of Mitchell’s offensive burden. According to Dan Feldman of the NBA’s “Dunc’d On Basketball” podcast, Mitchell’s performance in Game 2 was only the sixth in the Stathead.com database with a usage rate of at least half of his team’s plays in a playoff game with at least 20 shot attempts. This means that every other Cleveland play with Mitchell on the court ended, on average, with him shooting, turning the ball over, or going to the free throw line. (Given that responsibility, it’s no wonder Mitchell got tired at the end).
From a matchup perspective, I don’t think the Pacers’ initial two wins suggest they should be favored over in-form Cavaliers on a neutral court.
However, Indiana only needs to win two of the next five games, three of which will be at home, and it is unclear when Cleveland will be fully recovered. As a result, the Pacers are now the clear favorites to return to the Eastern Finals.
Celtics vs. Knicks: The Three-Point Shot Fails the Champions
As mentioned, at least the Celtics have experience in this situation, after losing 3-0 to the Miami Heat in 2023 before recovering and forcing Game 7, although they then lost at home. In fact, this is the fourth time that an Al Horford-era Celtics team has lost 2-0 at home, since it happened to them against the Chicago Bulls (a comeback win) and the Cavaliers (a five-game loss as underdogs at the start of the series) in 2017.
In a way, this isn’t surprising. Over the last four playoffs, including their 2022 Finals loss and their title run last season, Boston has been much better away from TD Garden. The Celtics are 22-9 (.710) in road playoff games since then, managing at least one road win in all 12 series so far. No other team is over .500 by more than three games on the road in that span.
At the same time, Boston has a record of only 23-16 at home in the last four playoffs. Only the Heat (11) have had double-digit home losses since then, considering that the Celtics have played many more playoff games than any other team in the last four years.
Given that context, Boston’s Game 1 home loss to a team they swept 4-0 in a dominant regular season series seemed to be of no concern. Given that the Celtics missed a playoff record 45 three-pointers, the fact that they forced overtime could be considered impressive.
Defying the typical bounce, the low percentage of outside shots held in Game 2. Boston attempted far fewer three-pointers (40 of 94 shots, compared to 60 of 97 in Game 1), but again hit 25%. The Celtics are the second team in the last six years to hit 25% or less in the first two games of a playoff series, joining the 2021 Atlanta Hawks in their loss in the Eastern Finals to the Bucks.
To some extent, the focus on Boston’s missed three-pointers is overblown and reflects the fact that they are tracked separately on the scoresheet. The Celtics shot even worse (8 of 33, 24%) on 2-point attempts outside the restricted area, without the benefit of the extra point for the shots they did make.
Several of those misses came from Jayson Tatum, who went 0-for-5 from 2-point range outside the paint. Tatum and Jaylen Brown missed all five 2-point shots they attempted outside the paint in the final quarter, as Boston resorted to “hero ball” with New York cutting into their lead. Only eight of the Celtics’ 24 shots in the final period were assist opportunities, according to GeniusIQ tracking.
Despite Boston’s reputation for struggling in close games, the Celtics had the third-best NBA offensive rating in clutch situations this season (scoring within five points in the final five minutes or overtime). And Boston’s +47 net rating in clutch moments during their 2024 title run led all teams.
Because the Celtics are largely healthy, aside from center Kristaps Porzingis’ lingering illness, and have controlled the first three quarters of both games by a combined +21 margin in that span, they are in the best possible position for a team that is down 2-0 at home. Surprisingly, Boston still has the best odds to win the East.
But the current champions head to New York without momentum and with little room for error.
