2026 NBA Draft Analysis: Early Projections and Emerging Talent
A few weeks into the college basketball season, the excitement surrounding the 2026 draft continues to grow. A freshman class packed with stars is grabbing attention and demonstrating rapid progress. It’s the perfect time to present our first mock draft of the season.
NBA executives have benefited from a November schedule that has offered several promising matchups, including the Champions Classic and next week’s Players Era championship in Las Vegas, where 18 teams compete and more talent-filled duels are anticipated. This draft continues to be considered one of the strongest in recent times, with high-level players at the top and promising depth in the first round. It’s important to remember that these projections are subject to change until June. This mock draft seeks to predict what the draft would look like if NBA teams were selecting today. These projections are not a ranking of the best prospects; for that, see ESPN’s Top 100. They are based on conversations with NBA executives and scouts, as well as my own evaluation, the result of time spent following games and analyzing videos. The draft order was formulated using ESPN’s BPI rankings as of November 14th.First Round of the Draft
1. Brooklyn Nets
Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas Statistics 2025-26: 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists in two games Peterson missed some Kansas games due to a hamstring injury. Coach Bill Self described him as out for the “immediate future,” which casts doubt on his participation in a major matchup against Cameron Boozer and Duke. Although he wasn’t officially ruled out on Tuesday morning, that game represented a great opportunity to demonstrate why NBA executives consider him number 1. Peterson’s dynamic three-level scoring game, impressive physical tools, defensive tenacity, and competitive intangibles place him among the most complete and impactful first-year point guards of recent times. It’s worth noting that NBA evaluators have been disappointed by the Jayhawks’ supporting cast so far, and it seems that Kansas will go as far as Peterson can take them. There is room for debate about the number 1 spot as the season progresses, but Peterson would likely be the pick if the draft were held today. However, the possibility of a prolonged absence would leave the door open for Dybantsa and Boozer to gain ground. The Nets desperately need a player to lead their team; they have made five first-round picks in the 2025 draft and are still trying to figure out how each one fits in long term. Peterson would address their lack of stars and something else.2. Washington Wizards
AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU Statistics 2025-26: 20.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.0 assists in four games Dybantsa was the center of attention on Saturday in Boston, with a large number of NBA representatives present at the BYU-UConn game. He showed his tempting scoring potential in the second half, after struggling to make an impact in the first, which highlights some of the concerns about his consistency and tendencies, but also serves as a reminder of his considerable talent. Overall, he has been efficient. He draws fouls frequently and has strived to play as a team player, but he is still learning to read the flow of the game and when to be aggressive. Dybantsa’s impressive physicality gives him a great advantage as a wing scorer who should also add value defensively, but he will have to demonstrate improvement to maximize his chances of being number 1. The Wizards are one of several teams with a lot at stake in the 2026 lottery: they have gotten positive results from the 2024 draftees Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George, but they are still looking for a young star around whom they can build their offense. Dybantsa would bring an offensive playmaking element that the roster lacks.
3. Utah Jazz
Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke Statistics 2025-26: 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists in four games While a discreet debut against Texas underscored some of the scouts’ concerns about Boozer’s athleticism, he will have a big platform on Tuesday against Kansas, with most of the NBA decision-makers expecting to attend. He is a complete and polished player who contributes to winning beyond mere scoring, which should help mitigate the fact that he is not that vertically explosive. His excellent track record will earn him some benefit of the doubt as he adapts to college, and his prolific production will keep him in the conversation with Peterson and Dybantsa at the top of the draft. Utah has had a better start than expected, but is still among the bottom three in ESPN’s BPI win projections and recently lost Walker Kessler to injury for the season. If the Jazz’s pick falls outside the top eight, it will be transferred to Oklahoma City, which would create an additional incentive for the Jazz to keep losing for another season. Boozer would fit well as an offensive centerpiece alongside Ace Bailey.4. Indiana Pacers
Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee Statistics 2025-26: 20 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.7 assists in four games Ament has been productive against lower-level opponents to start the season and will be under the microscope next week in Las Vegas, where all 30 NBA teams are expected to send their decision-makers to the Players Era Championship, packed with prospects. Ament is still learning to leverage his 6-foot-10-inch, 207-pound physique as a scorer, but it has been encouraging to see him attack downhill and draw fouls. Scouts will be eager to evaluate him against better competition, but his physique and skills portend excellent potential as he gains experience. The Pacers’ devastating string of bad luck with injuries extended into the regular season: Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin, and Aaron Nesmith have been among the notable injured players. Indiana’s decision to reacquire its own 2026 first-round pick in the spring now looks particularly astute, giving the franchise a lifeline and a path to a talent-laden draft lottery. After a 1-13 start, it might make sense for the Pacers to lean into losing, with an eye on rebounding next season with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton.
5. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)
Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina Statistics 2025-26: 20 points, 9.5 rebounds, 3 assists in four games Wilson seems to have made a tangible leap since arriving at college, impressing NBA teams with a new competitive drive that is translating into high production. His energy and impact in the paint defensively and on the boards have made a big difference, along with a strong feel and passing ability. The main challenge going forward will be projecting his jump shot, as he hasn’t made many three-pointers and has been inconsistent from the free-throw line (68.8%). It’s unlikely that he can be an offensive focal point in the NBA without significant growth in that area, but some scouts believe there is an opportunity for Wilson to ascend to the upper levels of this class if he can maintain this level of play. Atlanta appears destined to benefit from its decision to exit the 2025 draft lottery to obtain this selection from New Orleans, as the Pelicans, with a 2-12 record, continue to regress and seem likely to convey significant odds. This selection will be a luxury for the Hawks, no matter what.6. Sacramento Kings
Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville Statistics 2025-26: 19.3 points, 2.5 rebounds, 6.8 assists in four games A 29-point explosion in a rivalry game against Kentucky marked Brown’s proper arrival on the college stage and underscored the excitement surrounding his potential and trajectory in the NBA. His ability to shoot from deep (36% from 3) off the dribble and catch, as well as make plays for his teammates, gives him excellent potential, plus continuing to play downhill and get to the free throw line with more aggression will help his case. It’s a reasonable bet at this point that he will be the first point guard to be selected after Darryn Peterson, and where Brown ultimately falls among the top picks could depend on where teams in need of point guards end up selecting. This has been a challenging start to the season, to say the least, for the Kings, with a 3-11 record, controlling their own selection and might need to consider moving on from an aging core group with expensive contracts. The amount of high-level talent in this lottery makes that a more acceptable proposition, and the Kings’ need for a younger playmaker should make Brown a clear consideration.
7. Charlotte Hornets
Chris Cenac Jr., PF/C, Houston Statistics 2025-26: 10.8 points, 9 rebounds, 0.5 assists in four games Cenac has been consistent at the start of the college season and seems to have accepted his role in Houston, making a difference in rebounding and showing comfort with his jump shot. With his minutes looking solid, there is plenty of room for him to build on that, particularly on the offensive end, where he faces an adjustment playing inside against older and stronger college big men. He still has a long way to go to reach his ceiling, but he has a good toolbox for a modern, mobile, and stretch-the-floor rim protector, an archetype that is not prevalent in this class. The Hornets have gotten good initial results from their rookies, including Kon Knueppel and Ryan Kalkbrenner, but it remains to be seen if they are ready to make a real push for a play-in spot. Cenac’s length and mobility could be complementary to their long-term attack zone.8. Dallas Mavericks
Koa Peat, PF/C, Arizona Statistics 2025-26: 16.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 2.8 assists in four games Peat has left a strong impression with his initial play and solidified a place in the lottery discussion, with his physicality and interior impact proving to be important for Arizona. His lack of shooting range and the fact that he is undersized (6-8) for a 4 are considered limiting factors, but it’s easy to appreciate his well-defined identity as a player. If Peat can develop a 3-point shot, it’s hard not to see him finding utility in the NBA, but that might be something he’ll ultimately have to prove in training. Continuing to drive winning as a rebounder, play finisher, and physical defender should keep him in mind as a mid-to-late lottery candidate, although his skill set might be more team-specific than others. The firing of Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison could signal a page turn as Dallas reorients the franchise around Cooper Flagg. There’s a window for the 4-11 Mavericks to lean even further into the lottery in search of another young star to pair with him.9. Memphis Grizzlies
Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky Statistics 2024-25: 9.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists Quaintance remains sidelined while completing the final stages of rehabilitation from an ACL tear. His production as a 17-year-old freshman at Arizona State last season made him a prospect of high interest, and the hope is that he will return in January. Optimistically, he is projected as a vertical spacer and alley-oop threat who can also anchor a team defensively, but he is not a good outside shooter nor is he super skilled for a 5-man, which likely creates some limitations on how he could be used offensively. NBA teams are eager to see him back on the court to get a better idea of his readiness and potential. The Grizzlies are currently scheduled to pick twice in the lottery, keeping their own first-round pick and likely also Phoenix’s. As Memphis considers a longer time horizon after trading Desmond Bane, getting a couple of picks in a quality draft will be critical.10. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)
Dame Sarr, SG/SF, Duke Statistics 2025-26: 9.8 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.5 assists in four games Scouts consider Sarr the second-best prospect from Duke, with his 6-8 physique, defensive potential, and developing offensive game as a perimeter connector, giving him a path to becoming a valuable NBA player. He is also beginning to answer questions about his shot, having made 7 of 14 three-pointers to start the season and looking comfortable catching and shooting. While he is not highly regarded as a scorer, much of his value will come from filling the gaps. A bad start for the Clippers has positioned the defending champion Thunder to potentially select in the lottery, giving them another opportunity to add top-tier talent to an already loaded roster. This is the first of three first-round picks they have.
11. Memphis Grizzlies (via Phoenix)
Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers (New Zealand) Lopez has been productive in his second season in Australia, hitting 40% of his three-pointers, showing offensive progress and contributing as a rebounder. There are some holes in his profile: he hasn’t gotten to the free-throw line much, and scouts have expressed concern about his athleticism and defense. Lopez could project better as a stretch-four rather than a forward. His ability to handle, be a playmaker, and hit open shots at 6-8 will keep him in conversations in this part of the draft. The Grizzlies will have the best of the first-round picks from Phoenix and Orlando, with the Magic ahead of the Suns according to ESPN’s BPI projections.12. Portland Trail Blazers
Neoklis Avdalas, SG/SF, Virginia Tech Statistics 2025-26: 16.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 6 assists in four games The 33-point explosion by Avdalas on the road against Providence caught the attention of the NBA, as he skillfully navigated ball screens, hit five three-pointers, and showcased his potential as a 6-8 playmaking forward. While he isn’t especially quick or adept at beating defenders one-on-one, a factor that creates some skepticism in his projection, NBA teams are always on the lookout for big playmakers, and Avdalas has begun to demonstrate this in an outsized role. Continuing to hit shots from long range and establishing his value without the ball will be key. He fits the mold from a size and skill perspective, and he will have the opportunity to go high in the draft if he can mitigate those concerns. Portland is in the middle of the table in the West and will transmit its selection to Chicago if the Blazers make the playoffs and the selection falls between 15 and 30.13. Chicago Bulls
Braylon Mullins, SG, UConn Mullins remains out with an ankle injury, but is on track to return in the coming weeks, and NBA teams will be eager to evaluate him in a college environment. His excellent 3-point shooting, both on the move and off the dribble, gives him a distinctive skill, in addition to being a tough competitor with positional size who can contribute defensively. UConn has historically done well presenting its shooters under the direction of Dan Hurley and will need him to make an impact, positioning him for a possible “one-and-done” season if things go well. The Bulls own their pick in 2026 and returned to the middle of the table after a good start to the season: the healthy return of Coby White and Josh Giddey will offer a better idea of the direction Chicago is taking regarding the draft.14. Milwaukee Bucks
Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas Statistics 2025-26: 19.8 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists in four games Acuff has had a good start at Arkansas, putting up efficient numbers and shooting well from long distance in four games. His burst and playmaking ability have been on display, and his strength and pace help compensate for his smaller size. Teams in need of point guards will be watching him closely in the coming weeks, with a Thanksgiving matchup against Duke and a head-to-head game against Mikel Brown Jr. and Louisville offering real tests. The Bucks will receive the worst of their own picks and those of New Orleans and have an obvious need for long-term help in the attacking zone right now: while it’s early, their selection could be an interesting landing spot for any of the point guards in this range.15. Boston Celtics
Thomas Haugh, SF/PF, Florida Statistics 2025-26: 19 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3 assists in four games Many in the NBA anticipated that Haugh would explode this season: he has wasted no time in establishing himself as one of the best players in college basketball. Although he will turn 23 before his rookie season in the NBA, Haugh seems like an obvious plug-and-play option that will help any team with his ball movement, defensive effort, and versatility. Teams with playoff aspirations will be watching him closely from this part of the draft. Amidst some speculation that they could fall in the standings, the Celtics have been energetic in the absence of Jayson Tatum. Adding an NBA-ready player with this pick should be an approach they consider.
16. Toronto Raptors
Labaron Philon Jr., PG, Alabama Statistics 2025-26: 19.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 6 assists in three games Philon has started the season in good form, especially scoring 25 points in Alabama’s road victory over St. John’s and showing improved ability as a shot creator. He is taking on a central role in playmaking this season and has a good chance to separate himself from the other point guards in this part of the draft. Showing that he can carry the load efficiently as Alabama navigates a tough non-conference schedule will help. The Raptors control their own selection, but they are working to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022, which will likely schedule them to select somewhere in this range.17. Charlotte Hornets (via Orlando)
Tounde Yessoufou, SG/SF, Baylor Statistics 2025-26: 16.3 points, 5 rebounds, 1.7 assists in three games With a powerful 6-5, 210-pound physique and a high-motor engine, Yessoufou has intriguing potential, as well as some developmental risk as scouts work to project his offense. He can play downhill and get to the free-throw line, but he has struggled with the 3-point shot (3 of 15 to start the season) and faces questions about his playmaking and feel for moving the ball. If his shot improves, Yessoufou could be, at a minimum, a high-value play finisher and disruptive defender. How his efficiency develops over the course of the season will be the biggest factor in determining how high he is selected. Charlotte will receive the least favorable of the Washington selections (if 1-8), Phoenix, Orlando and Memphis, which in this case is that of the Magic.18. Golden State Warriors
Yaxel Lendeborg, PF/C, Michigan Statistics 2025-26: 11.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3 assists in three games Lendeborg’s age (23) hinders his perceived potential, but his complete game and physical tools should be enough to take him to the first round, where teams looking for help in the attacking zone to plug and play will consider him. He remains an inconsistent outside shooter, but his ability to handle and pass gives him additional perimeter functionality for a larger 6-9, 240-pound forward. Michigan has been grappling with the difficult task of playing with three big players together for stretches, hoping that Lendeborg’s ability to combine lineups will allow them to put their best players together on the court. He’s not always aggressive as a scorer, but he should have utility in a complementary NBA context and be attractive to teams like Golden State who are in win-now mode.19. Miami Heat
Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston Statistics 2025-26: 17.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.3 assists in four gamesAlthough he entered the university with less fanfare than some of his classmates, Flemings has been one of the best freshmen from the start, playing a key role for the No. 1-ranked Houston and showing NBA-caliber speed, vision, and explosiveness. He passed his first major test, propelling the Cougars to a victory against a tough Auburn defense on Sunday with 22 points. He has been exceptionally efficient in this small sample, hitting 79% of two-point attempts in four games, and puts a lot of pressure on defenses with his downhill pace despite being slender. He should continue to emerge as the season progresses while sharing the frontcourt with Milos Uzan.
20. Minnesota Timberwolves
Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa Statistics 2025-26: 21.3 points, 3 rebounds, 5.3 assists in three games It’s no surprise that Stirtz is off to a good start, as Iowa navigates a soft early schedule, like an expert in
