Preliminary Analysis of the 2026 NBA Draft: Perspectives and Projections
A few weeks into the college basketball season, the anticipation surrounding the 2026 draft continues to grow. A freshman class packed with stars is grabbing attention, showing a rapid ascent to the next level. It’s the right time to present our first mock draft of the season. NBA executives have benefited from a November schedule that has offered promising matchups, including the Champions Classic and next week’s Players Era championship in Las Vegas, where 18 teams with promising figures will meet. This draft is shaping up to be one of the most outstanding in recent memory, with high-level players at the top and promising depth in the first round. It is important to note that these projections are subject to change until June. This mock draft seeks to simulate what the draft would look like if it were held today. These projections are not a ranking of the best prospects; for that, you can consult ESPN’s Top 100 rankings. They are based on conversations with NBA executives and scouts, as well as my own evaluation after watching games and analyzing videos. The draft order has been established using ESPN’s BPI rankings from November 14th.First Round of the Draft
1. Brooklyn Nets
Darryn Peterson, PG/SG, Kansas
The freshman point guard has averaged 21.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in his first two games. Peterson missed some recent games due to a hamstring injury, which puts his participation in a major matchup against Cameron Boozer and Duke in doubt. His scoring ability at all three levels, his impressive physical tools, his defensive tenacity, and his intangibles place him among the most complete and impactful freshmen guards of recent times. If the draft were today, Peterson would likely be the first pick. The Nets urgently need a player to lead their team; they have made five first-round picks in the 2025 draft and are still determining how each one fits in long term. Peterson would solve their lack of stars.2. Washington Wizards
AJ Dybantsa, SF, BYU
Dybantsa stood out on Saturday in Boston, with a large NBA contingent present for the BYU-UConn game. He showed his promising scoring potential in the second half, after struggling to make an impact in the first, which points to some of the concerns about his consistency. Overall, he has been efficient, draws fouls frequently, and has strived to play as a team, but he is still learning to read the flow of the game and when to be aggressive. Dybantsa’s impressive physicality gives him top-tier scoring potential, but he will need to improve to maximize his chances of being No. 1. The Wizards are looking for a young star to build their attack. Dybantsa would bring a direct play element that is missing from the roster.3. Utah Jazz
Cameron Boozer, PF/C, Duke
Boozer, with averages of 22.5 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 4.3 assists in four games, will have a great platform on Tuesday against Kansas, with most of the NBA decision-makers present. He is a complete player who contributes to winning beyond scoring, which should help mitigate the fact that he is not as vertically explosive. His excellent track record will give him the benefit of the doubt and his prolific production will keep him in the conversation with Peterson and Dybantsa at the top of the draft. Utah, with a better streak than expected, is still among the last three in ESPN’s win projections. Boozer would fit well as an offensive centerpiece alongside Ace Bailey.4. Indiana Pacers
Nate Ament, SF/PF, Tennessee
Ament has been productive against lower-level opponents at the start of the season and will be under the spotlight in Las Vegas next week. Ament is still learning to harness his 6-foot-10-inch frame, but it has been encouraging to see him attack and draw fouls. Scouts will be eager to evaluate him against better competition, but his physique and skill set portend excellent potential as he gains experience. The Pacers’ bad luck with injuries extended into the regular season. After a 1-13 start, it might make sense for the Pacers to focus on losing, with an eye on bouncing back next season with a healthy Tyrese Haliburton.5. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans)Caleb Wilson, PF/C, North Carolina
Wilson seems to have made a tangible leap, impressing NBA teams with a new competitive edge that is translating into great production. His energy and impact in the paint, both on defense and rebounding, have made a big difference, along with a strong feel and passing ability. The main challenge in the future will be to project his jump shot, as he hasn’t made many three-pointers and has been inconsistent from the free-throw line (68.8%). Atlanta appears poised to benefit from its decision to move out of the 2025 draft lottery to obtain this selection from New Orleans, as the Pelicans, with a 2-12 record, continue to regress and seem likely to convey significant odds. This selection will be a luxury for the Hawks, no matter what.6. Sacramento Kings
Mikel Brown Jr., PG, Louisville
A 29-point explosion in a game against Kentucky marked Brown’s arrival on the college scene and underscored the excitement surrounding his potential and trajectory in the NBA. His ability to shoot from distance (36% from 3) off the dribble and catch, as well as make plays for his teammates, gives him excellent potential, in addition to continuing to play towards the basket and getting to the free throw line with more aggressiveness will help his case. It’s a reasonable bet at this point that he will be the first guard to be selected after Darryn Peterson, and where Brown falls among the top picks could depend on where the teams in need of a point guard end up selecting. This has been a difficult start to the season, to say the least, for the Kings, who control their own selection and might need to consider a change of course with an aging core group with expensive contracts. The amount of high-level talent in this lottery makes it a more acceptable proposition, and the Kings’ need for a younger playmaker should make Brown a clear consideration.Mikel Brown Jr. scores a three-pointer
7. Charlotte Hornets
Chris Cenac Jr., PF/C, Houston
Cenac has been consistent at the beginning of the college season and seems to have accepted his role in Houston, making a difference in rebounding and showing comfort with his shot. With his solid minutes, there is plenty of room for him to build on that, particularly on the offensive end, where he faces an adjustment playing inside against older and stronger college big men. He is still far from reaching his ceiling, but he has a good toolbox for a modern, mobile, and rim-protecting 5, an archetype that is not prevalent in this class. The Hornets have gotten good initial results from their rookies, but it remains to be seen if they are ready to make a real push for a play-in spot. Cenac’s length and mobility could be an addition to their frontcourt game in the long run.8. Dallas Mavericks
Koa Peat, PF/C, Arizona
Peat has left a strong impression with his initial play and has solidified a place in the lottery discussion, with his physicality and interior impact proving to be important for Arizona. His lack of shooting range and the fact that he is undersized (6-8) for a 4 are considered limiting factors, but it’s easy to appreciate his well-defined identity as a player. If Peat can develop a 3-point shot, it’s hard not to see him finding utility in the NBA, but that could be something he’ll ultimately have to prove in training. Continuing to drive winning as a rebounder, play finisher, and physical defender should keep him in mind as a mid-to-late lottery candidate, although his skill set might be more team-specific than others. The firing of the Mavericks’ general manager could signal a page turn, as Dallas reorients the franchise around Cooper Flagg. There’s a window for the Mavericks, with a 4-11 record, to pivot even more towards the lottery in search of another young star to pair with him.9. Memphis Grizzlies
Jayden Quaintance, C, Kentucky
Quaintance remains sidelined while completing the final stages of rehabilitation from a torn ACL. His production as a 17-year-old freshman at Arizona State last season made him a prospect of high interest, and the hope is that he will return in January. Optimistically, he is projected as a vertical spacer and lob threat who can also anchor a team defensively, but he is not a good long-range shooter nor is he super skilled for a 5-man, which will likely create some limitations on how he could be used on offense. NBA teams are eager to see him back on the court to get a better sense of his readiness and potential. The Grizzlies are currently scheduled to pick twice in the lottery, keeping their own first-round pick and likely also Phoenix’s. As Memphis considers a longer time horizon after trading Desmond Bane, getting a couple of picks in a quality draft will be critical.10. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LAC)
Dame Sarr, SG/SF, Duke
Scouts consider Sarr the second-best prospect from Duke, with his 6-8 physique, defensive potential, and developing offensive game as a perimeter connector, giving him a path to becoming a valuable NBA player. He’s also starting to answer questions about his shot, having made 7 of 14 three-pointers to start the season and showing comfort catching and shooting. While he doesn’t stand out much as a scorer, much of his value will come from filling the gaps. A slow start for the Clippers has positioned the current champion Thunder to potentially select in the lottery, giving them another opportunity to add top-tier talent to an already loaded roster. This is the first of three first-round picks they have.11. Memphis Grizzlies (via Phoenix)
Karim Lopez, SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers (New Zealand)Lopez has been productive in his second season in Australia, hitting 40% of his three-pointers, showing offensive progress and contributing as a rebounder. There are some holes in his profile: he hasn’t gone to the free-throw line much, and scouts have expressed concern about his athleticism and defense. Lopez may ultimately project better as a stretch four rather than a forward. His ability to handle, be a playmaker, and hit open shots at 6-8 will keep him in conversations in this part of the draft. The Grizzlies will have the best of the first-round picks from Phoenix and Orlando, with the Magic ahead of the Suns according to ESPN’s BPI projections.12. Portland Trail Blazers
Neoklis Avdalas, SG/SF, Virginia Tech
The 33 points by Avdalas on the road against Providence caught the attention of the NBA, as he skillfully navigated ball screens, scored five three-pointers, and showcased his potential as a 6-8 playmaking forward. While he is not particularly fast or skilled at beating defenders one-on-one, a factor that generates some skepticism in his projection, NBA teams are always looking for big playmakers, and Avdalas has begun to demonstrate it in an outsized role. Continuing to score from long distance and establishing his value without the ball will be key. He fits the mold from a size and skill perspective, and he will have the opportunity to go high in the draft if he can mitigate those concerns. Portland is in the middle of the table in the West and will transmit its selection to Chicago if the Blazers make the playoffs and the selection falls between 15 and 30.13. Chicago Bulls
Braylon Mullins, SG, UConn
Mullins remains out with an ankle injury, but is on track to return in the coming weeks, and NBA teams will be eager to evaluate him in a college environment. His excellent 3-point shooting, both on the move and off the dribble, gives him a distinctive skill, plus he is a tough competitor with positional size who can contribute defensively. UConn has historically been successful in showcasing its shooters under the direction of Dan Hurley and will need him to make an impact, positioning him for a possible one-and-done season if things go well. The Bulls own their pick in 2026 and returned to the middle of the table after a good start to the season: the healthy return of Coby White and Josh Giddey will offer a better idea of where Chicago is headed regarding the draft.14. Milwaukee Bucks
Darius Acuff Jr., PG, Arkansas
Acuff has had a good start at Arkansas, obtaining efficient numbers and shooting well from long distance in four games. His burst and playmaking ability have been on display, and his strength and pace help compensate for his smaller size. Teams in need of a guard will watch him closely in the coming weeks, with a Thanksgiving matchup against Duke and a head-to-head game against Mikel Brown Jr. and Louisville offering real tests. The Bucks will receive the worst of their own selection and that of New Orleans and have an obvious need for long-term help in the defensive zone at this time; while it’s early, their selection could be an interesting landing spot for any of the guards in this range.15. Boston Celtics
Thomas Haugh, SF/PF, Florida
Many in the NBA anticipated that Haugh would explode this season: he has wasted no time in establishing himself as one of the best players in college basketball. Although he will turn 23 before his rookie season in the NBA, Haugh seems like an obvious plug-and-play option that will help any team with his ball movement, defensive effort, and versatility. Teams with playoff aspirations will be watching him closely from this part of the draft. Amidst some speculation that they might plummet in the rankings, the Celtics have been restless in the absence of Jayson Tatum. Adding an NBA-ready player with this pick should be an approach they consider.Thomas Haugh makes a three-pointer
16. Toronto Raptors
Labaron Philon Jr., PG, Alabama
Philon has started the season in good form, scoring 25 points in Alabama’s victory over St. John’s and showing improved skill as a shot creator. He is taking on a key playmaker role this season and has a good chance to separate himself from the other point guards in this part of the draft. Proving that he can carry the load efficiently while Alabama navigates a difficult non-conference schedule will help. The Raptors control their own selection, but they are working to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2022, which will likely schedule them to select somewhere in this range.17. Charlotte Hornets (via Orlando)
Tounde Yessoufou, SG/SF, Baylor
With a powerful 6-5, 210-pound physique and a high-performance engine, Yessoufou has interesting potential, as well as some development risk, as scouts work to project his offense. He can drive down and to the free-throw line, but has struggled with the 3-point shot (3 of 15 to start the season) and faces questions about his game and his feel for moving the ball. If his shot improves, Yessoufou could be a high-value play finisher and a disruptive defender at a minimum. How his efficiency develops throughout the season will be the most important factor in determining how high he is selected. Charlotte will receive the least favorable of the Washington selections (if 1-8), Phoenix, Orlando and Memphis, which in this case is the Magic’s.18. Golden State Warriors
Yaxel Lendeborg, PF/C, MichiganLendeborg’s age (23) hinders his perceived potential, but his complete game and physical tools should be good enough to take him into the first round, where teams looking for frontcourt help to plug and play will consider him. He remains an inconsistent outside shooter, but his ability to handle and pass gives him additional perimeter functionality for a bigger forward at 6-9, 240. Michigan has been grappling with the difficult task of playing with three big players together for periods, hoping that Lendeborg’s ability to combine lineups will allow them to put their best players on the court together. He’s not always aggressive as a scorer, but he should have utility in a complementary NBA context and be attractive to teams like Golden State who are in win-now mode.19. Miami Heat
Kingston Flemings, PG, Houston
Although he arrived at college with less fanfare than some of his classmates, Flemings has been one of the best freshmen from the start, playing a key role for number 1 Houston and showing NBA-caliber speed, vision, and explosiveness. He passed his first major test, leading the Cougars to victory against a tough Auburn defense on Sunday with 22 points. He has been exceptionally efficient in this small sample, making 79% of two-point attempts in four games, and puts a lot of pressure on defenses with his downhill pace despite being slender. He should continue to emerge as the season progresses while sharing the backcourt with Milos Uzan.20. Minnesota Timberwolves
Bennett Stirtz, PG, Iowa
It’s no surprise that Stirtz is off to a good start, as Iowa navigates a soft early schedule, as a screen navigation expert and a senior prospect who remains one of the best players in college basketball. He has proven to be a guard who can dictate the flow of the game and make good decisions while taking on significant usage. He will be examined more closely against better competition, as scouts work to project him physically and defensively in the long term. As a 22-year-old senior…
