2025 NASCAR Season Analysis: Qualifying and Outlook
NASCAR All-Star Race festivities move to North Wilkesboro, North Carolina, this weekend. This event serves as an evaluation point for the 2025 season, highlighting drivers who have excelled and those who have not met expectations.
To analyze the performance of each driver, a formula has been used that considers various key indicators. These include victories, positions in the standings, overall performance, and fulfillment of preseason expectations.
Los componentes de la fórmula, estandarizados para una comparación justa, son:
- Adjusted points index+ (with a Cup average of 100)
- Total wins
- Ranking position
- Average performance index per race
- Average completion (indexed)
- Performance against preseason expectations
- Head-to-head record against teammates
- Race completion rate (indexed)
With this data, letter grades are assigned, considering results, consistency, and surprises. Below is the analysis of each driver before the Race of Stars.
Level A
Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports: A+
2025 Statistics: 3 wins, 8 top-5s, 9 top-10s, 9.8 average finish. Ranking position: 1st. Adjusted points index+: 241. Average performance index: 102.6
Larson continues to demonstrate his excellence, securing victories in Homestead, Bristol, and Kansas. His consistent performance and ability to dominate races position him as the favorite for the championship.
Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing: A
2025 Statistics: 3 wins, 6 top-5s, 8 top-10s, 11.2 average finish. Ranking position: 3rd. Adjusted points index+: 224. Average performance index: 92.8
Bell has had an impressive season, matching his win record at the beginning of the calendar. Although his pace has slowed a bit, he remains a strong competitor and the lead driver for Joe Gibbs Racing.
William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports: A
2025 Statistics: 1 win, 5 top-5 finishes, 7 top-10 finishes, 10.2 average finish. Ranking position: 2nd. Adjusted points index+: 202. Average performance index: 103.9
Byron has been one of the most consistent drivers, leading the series in average race position. His victory in the Daytona 500 reaffirms his place in the history of the competition.
Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing: A-
2025 Statistics: 2 wins, 5 top-5s, 6 top-10s, 15.2 average finish. Ranking position: 7th. Adjusted points index+: 178. Average performance index: 87.6
Hamlin demonstrates that age is not an impediment, showing a great performance in 2025. With two victories and a high points index, he seeks to consolidate his legacy in NASCAR.
Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman get a B grade in the first half of the 2025 NASCAR season.
Level B
Ryan Blaney, Team Penske: B+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 5 top-5s, 6 top-10s, 16.1 completion average. Ranking position: 5th. Adjusted points index+: 148. Average performance index: 92.6
Blaney has had bad luck, with several retirements, but his speed is undeniable. With greater reliability, he could aim for the championship.
Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports: B+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 3 top-5s, 6 top-10s, 11.7 average finish. Ranking position: 4th. Adjusted points index+: 143. Average performance index: 84.6
Elliott has traded dominance for consistency, achieving good results but without victories. He needs to regain his dominant form to aspire to more.
Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing: B+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 3 top-5s, 4 top-10s, 13.7 average finish. Ranking position: 6th. Adjusted points index+: 138. Average performance index: 93.4
Reddick has performed well, although without victories. His high performance index places him among the best, but he needs to capitalize on his opportunities.
Josh Berry, Wood Brothers Racing: B+
2025 Statistics: 1 win, 2 top-5s, 3 top-10s, 21.2 average finish. Ranking position: 17th. Adjusted points index+: 103. Average performance index: 80.5
Berry has exceeded expectations, achieving a victory in Las Vegas. His performance is notable, considering the history of the Wood Brothers team.
Joey Logano, Team Penske: B
2025 Statistics: 1 win, 1 top-5, 3 top-10, 17.3 completion average. Ranking position: 9th. Adjusted points index+: 114. Average performance index: 89.2
Logano has one victory, but needs to improve consistency in his results. His ability to improve throughout the season is a plus.
Austin Cindric, Team Penske: B
2025 Statistics: 1 win, 1 top-5, 3 top-10, 17.3 average finish. Ranking position: 14th. Adjusted points index+: 114. Average performance index: 82.8
Cindric is having a good season, improving his skills and showing good performance on ovals. He is on track to have his best year.
Chase Briscoe, Joe Gibbs Racing: B
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 4 top-5s, 5 top-10s, 15.2 average finish. Ranking position: 13th. Adjusted points index+: 134. Average performance index: 77.1
Briscoe is having the best season of his career, showing a great improvement after joining Joe Gibbs Racing. Although he has no wins, he has been a factor in several races.
Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports: B-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 2 top-5s, 7 top-10s, 16.9 finishing average. Ranking position: 8th. Adjusted points index+: 134. Average performance index: 83.1
Bowman has made limited progress in 2025, underperforming compared to his teammates. However, he is in a strong position for the playoffs.
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing: B-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 2 top-5s, 6 top-10s, 13.9 completion average. Ranking position: 11th. Adjusted points index+: 145. Average performance index: 77.6
Chastain has had good results, but his overall performance is less impressive than in previous years. He needs to win races to regain his level.
Chris Buescher, RFK Racing: B-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 6 top-10, 15.5 average finish. Ranking position: 12th. Adjusted points index+: 122. Average performance index: 76.6
Buescher remains in a playoff position, but his performance has decreased compared to previous seasons. He needs to improve to maintain his position.
Ryan Preece, RFK Racing: B-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 4 top-10, 19.8 average finish. Ranking position: 16th. Adjusted points index+: 97. Average performance index: 80.2
Preece has performed well in his first season with the team, exceeding expectations. His performance is solid, although he needs to improve his results.
Bubba Wallace signed a multi-year contract extension with 23XI Racing in September 2024.
Level C
Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing: C+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 2 top-5s, 4 top-10s, 19.6 finishing average. Ranking position: 10th. Adjusted points index+: 102. Average performance index: 85.0
Wallace had a good start to the season, but has struggled recently. Although his performance is promising, he needs to improve his results to maintain his position.
John Hunter Nemechek, Legacy Motor Club: C+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 4 top-10, 18.2 average finish. Ranking position: 19th. Adjusted points index+: 91. Average performance index: 56.1
Nemechek has shown significant improvement, surpassing the performance of the No. 42 car in previous seasons. Although predictive metrics are less optimistic, his progress is notable.
Zane Smith, Front Row Motorsports: C+
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 0 top-5s, 1 top-10, 18.8 average finishing position. Ranking position: 23rd. Adjusted points index+: 80. Average performance index: 64.1
Smith has improved in his second full season, with above-average Cup performance and a positive record against his teammates. He also got the pole at Talladega and led some laps at Homestead.
Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing: C
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 4 top-10, 18.1 average finish. Ranking position: 18th. Adjusted points index+: 96. Average performance index: 75.8
Busch, despite similar results to Nemechek, faces frustration due to expectations. After a promising start, his performance has declined, showing an average performance.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Hyak Motorsports: C
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 2 top-10, 17.3 average finish. Ranking position: 15th. Adjusted points index+: 91. Average performance index: 59.0
Stenhouse is difficult to evaluate due to his inconsistency. Although he has had good results in some races, his overall performance is mediocre. He needs to win to secure his place in the playoffs.
Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing: C
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 0 top-5s, 3 top-10s, 18.4 average finish. Ranking position: 22nd. Adjusted points index+: 86. Average performance index: 62.9
Dillon is a C-level pilot, showing improvement compared to previous years. Although he needs victories to enter the playoffs, his performance has been acceptable.
Todd Gilliland, Front Row Motorsports: C
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 0 top-5s, 2 top-10s, 18.8 average finishing position. Ranking position: 24th. Adjusted points index+: 82. Average performance index: 62.1
Gilliland has maintained a stable performance, similar to the previous year. His completion average is better than the Cup average, but his performance index has decreased. He comes from an 11th place in Texas and a 12th in Kansas.
Michael McDowell, Spire Motorsports: C
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 0 top-5s, 0 top-10s, 19.1 average finish. Ranking position: 21st. Adjusted points index+: 77. Average performance index: 63.1
McDowell, after joining Spire, has outperformed his teammates, but his metrics are below the Cup average. He needs to improve his results.
Carson Hocevar, Spire Motorsports: C-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 2 top-10, 22.2 average finishing. Ranking position: 20th. Adjusted points index+: 85. Average performance index: 73.2
Hocevar has shown flashes of brilliance, but needs to improve his technique and respect for other drivers. His finishing average is low despite his good performance.
Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing: C-
2025 Statistics: 0 wins, 1 top-5, 3 top-10, 20.9 average finish. Ranking position: 27th. Adjusted points index+: 87. Average performance index: 64.8
After a good season, Suarez has had an irregular start, with more retirements than top-10 finishes. However, his underlying performance has not changed significantly.
In 12 Cup Series races this season, Ty Gibbs has a top-five finish.
