Starting next weekend, at the Quaker State 400 race in Atlanta, the NASCAR Cup Series will implement an in-season tournament, following the example of other sports leagues such as European football and the NBA, to add excitement to the regular season.
The classification for the In-Season Challenge was based on the results of three races (Michigan, Mexico City, and Pocono), using a combination of best positions and points obtained. Now, 32 drivers will face off in a direct elimination format, competing head-to-head until one is crowned champion and takes home a prize of $1 million.
This guide will help you understand the format, favorites, contenders, and results of the qualifying process. To do this, an updated version of the Cup Series playoff prediction model has been used, which simulates the tournament 2,000 times to estimate the chances of each driver.
Tournament Favorites
Let’s take a closer look at the favorites landscape:
Despite being seeded in 18th place due to poor results in two of the three qualifying races, William Byron has been the best Cup driver this season, leading both the overall standings and the Driver Rating. This makes him the main contender to win the tournament.
Byron, a two-time Daytona 500 winner, has a favorable matchup in the first round against Ryan Preece. He could face less consistent drivers on road courses in the following rounds, and he could face a less strong driver on ovals in the final.
Other drivers with good chances include Christopher Bell, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Chris Buescher, and Kyle Larson. Hamlin and Elliott have the best opportunities to reach the round of sixteen, with favorable matchups in the first round.
Elliott also has a good chance of reaching the quarterfinals, as he could face John Hunter Nemechek or Josh Berry in the second round, neither of whom excels on road courses.De izquierda a derecha, Chase Elliott y William Byron son dos pilotos de la Copa que hay que seguir de cerca mientras la NASCAR se lanza a su primer torneo de temporada.
The Surprise Contenders
If we consider Byron a “surprise contender” due to his position in the standings, he has the best chances of reaching the final and/or winning it of all the drivers in that category. However, it is unusual to qualify the number 1 ranked driver as a contender.
Similarly, Logano and Tyler Reddick have the next best odds from that group. However, the former is the current Cup Series champion, and the latter was in last year’s final; neither would surprise with a good performance, although Reddick would have to face Larson and then, probably, Blaney immediately.
Ty Gibbs could be an unexpected choice. He is in 23rd place in the overall standings, but he is the sixth seed in the tournament and his performance has been increasing. Favorable matchups with Justin Haley and Michael McDowell could take Gibbs to the round of 8, which would be both expected and surprising.
If we limit ourselves to the drivers who are in 15th place or lower in the tournament standings and in the overall standings, four drivers have a 10% or more chance of winning at least two rounds: Austin Cindric, A.J. Allmendinger, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski. All are known for being specialists on speed or road circuits, and those circuits make up each of the first three races of the tournament.
Busch and Keselowski can’t both have good performances, as they face each other in the first round. The winner will likely face Hamlin on a road course, while Cindric and Allmendinger could meet at Sonoma in the round of 8.
The “Espoiler” Pilots
Sometimes, it’s not so much about winning the title as it is about being an obstacle for the favorites. In this tournament, that could be the case for Keselowski, Reddick, Erik Jones, and Carson Hocevar, each of whom has at least a 44% chance of eliminating higher-ranked drivers.
We already mentioned Keselowski’s battle with Busch, but Reddick has a real chance of ending Larson’s race immediately, while there’s a nearly 50% probability that Jones or Hocevar will surprise Ross Chastain or Blaney, respectively.
Logano may cause problems for Bubba Wallace in the second round if Joey survives Alex Bowman in the first. Also, McDowell could have a very high chance of defeating Gibbs in a second-round fight.
Briscoe has the potential to turn Byron from a favorite into a secondary topic if he manages a good race on the streets of Chicago. Briscoe performed well in the last road course race in Mexico City.
Difficult Duels
Preece could be an example of an unlucky driver, as he finished in 15th place. The underdog could still win, as Atlanta is a chaotic track.
Bowman also fits that mold: he is seeded in eighth place, which matches number 25 in a 32-driver tournament. But unfortunately for him, that means facing Logano in a place where Joey won in last year’s playoffs and is always a threat. If Bowman wins, he would have a favorable matchup against Wallace in the second round.
Zane Smith is seeded in 14th place, but would be the underdog against Cindric, particularly in Atlanta, where Cindric had a streak of five straight races finishing in the top 12. Nemechek got Berry in the first round, an anomaly that doesn’t really reflect how they’ve been competing all season.
The Chastain, Blaney, and Larson trio might not have it so easy. For Ross, that’s because speed tracks are a clear weak point in his performance, putting him on shaky ground against Jones. Blaney and Larson will have to face Hocevar and Reddick, who are more difficult than the rest of the top 10.
This new In-Season Challenge promises to be as wild and experimental as anything NASCAR has attempted in years.
