Confirmed UFC Blockbusters for Summer: Topuria vs. Oliveira and Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Tuesday’s news about the official scheduling of two highly anticipated championship fights for the summer in UFC has resolved some important doubts, but has also generated new questions. Former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria, who vacated his title last month, will compete for the lightweight belt against former champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 317 in Las Vegas on June 28. This means that Islam Makhachev, the current pound-for-pound king, will vacate his lightweight belt to move up to welterweight, where he will eventually challenge newly crowned champion Jack Della Maddalena.
The summer pay-per-view calendar will conclude with UFC 319 in Chicago on August 16, featuring another highly anticipated matchup: champion Dricus Du Plessis versus Khamzat Chimaev for middleweight supremacy.
Chimaev, undefeated in his MMA career, hasn’t stepped into the octagon since October 2024. Between them, Chimaev and Du Plessis have defeated six former champions in their last six fights, so neither is a stranger to the spotlight.
What Does Topuria’s Immediate Title Opportunity Mean?
It means much more to Topuria than to the rest of the division. Lightweight, as always, is strong. Arman Tsarukyan suffered a setback when he withdrew from a title fight at UFC 311 in January due to a back injury, but that doesn’t change how impressive he has been in competition. Justin Gaethje’s resume is solid enough that he could fight for a belt right now. There’s nothing wrong with this division, quite the opposite. Topuria is getting an immediate title shot because of what he represents in MMA right now. He is number 2 in the pound-for-pound rankings and a bona fide superstar.
Topuria is the most interesting man in sports, and although Makhachev is more proven at this moment, Topuria’s stardom could eclipse Makhachev’s by the end of the year, depending on how things go.
Is This Oliveira’s Last Chance to Regain the UFC Championship?
Probably, but never say never. This is not the first time Oliveira has reached a crossroads.
His path to the championship seemed to have hit a dead end in 2022, when he was stripped of the lightweight title after missing weight before a fight at UFC 274 against Gaethje in May. Then, he was submitted by Makhachev in another title opportunity four months later. Oliveira’s career exuded finality, but a year and a half later, there he was in a title eliminator. He lost that fight against Tsarukyan. After a single comeback victory over Michael Chandler at UFC 309 in November, here he is once again. The aspiration for greatness never fades.
But Oliveira is 35 years old now, and there’s a line of lightweight contenders stretching far behind him. Tsarukyan and Gaethje are waiting their turn, and Paddy Pimblett heads a queue of next-generation stars. If Oliveira were to fall to Topuria, it’s possible Oliveira could rise and find his way to another golden opportunity. But Oliveira can’t afford to approach this fight with anything less than urgency. He must seize this moment as if it were his last.
Can Della Maddalena Be a Real Challenge for Makhachev?
One million percent. With all due respect to Makhachev, but let’s also show some respect to Della Maddalena. Della Maddalena just broke Belal Muhammad’s 11-fight win streak at UFC 315, one of the most impressive runs in MMA in recent memory. There’s no doubt that Della Maddalena is a real challenge for Makhachev.
Makhachev is moving up to welterweight, where Della Maddalena feels very comfortable. Della Maddalena’s takedown defense was impressive at UFC 315. His boxing is a real problem for opponents, and we’ve seen Makhachev look less dominant against the boxing of Dustin Poirier and even Alexander Volkanovski, a natural featherweight. I’m not necessarily saying it’s Della Maddalena’s fight to lose against the world’s number 1 pound-for-pound fighter, but there are some real cards in his favor here. Let’s acknowledge that, so that, if Makhachev wins, we give the achievement of overcoming Della Maddalena the credit it deserves.
What Can We Expect to See When Du Plessis and Chimaev Meet at UFC 319?
Perhaps it’s an evasive statement to say we should expect the unexpected. But what else have these two produced in the UFC but surprises?
Du Plessis entered three of his four most recent fights as an underdog in the betting, but won all of them, along with the five UFC fights that came before. He has a strange way of fighting that doesn’t seem like a winning style, until his hand is raised. Chimaev, on the other hand, burst onto the UFC scene looking like a champion impatient for his belt to be fitted. His first three octagon victories, all quick finishes, came in a span of 65 days. That was five years ago, however, and Chimaev’s express train momentum has slowed to a chugga-chugga crawl as his activity has decreased. However, he remains undefeated.
Chimaev’s two most recent victories were against former UFC champions (Kamaru Usman and Robert Whittaker), and Du Plessis has conquered champions in his last four fights (Whittaker, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland twice). So this moment won’t be too big for either of them. With Chimaev being an explosive starter and Du Plessis being infinitely resilient, I expect an early attack from the challenger and the champion playing the long game, looking longingly towards the deep waters, where he feels comfortable swimming.
Parker’s Early Bets for the Main Events
Topuria to win within the distance: Topuria will likely be the favorite here and with good reason. He is undefeated, will have the advantage in the fight, and has devastating knockout power against Oliviera, who has been knocked down in many fights. If Topuria’s line is anywhere below -200, take it, and for a better line, take him to win within the distance. As long as he can prevent Oliviera from taking his back, I don’t see how he loses this fight.
Du Plessis to win by decision: The question for this middleweight championship fight, as with any Chimaev fight, is whether Du Plessis can make it out of the first round. That answer, in my opinion, should be yes. Du Plessis has the defensive wrestling and physical strength to fend off Chimaev in the early going and then take him into deep waters to get it done in the championship rounds. Alternatively, it’s always worth taking Chimaev to win any fight in the first round, as five of his eight UFC wins have come by stoppage in the first round. If that strategy fails, take the live line on Du Plessis, because he will use his cardio to improve as the fight goes on.
