UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena and more, Disappointment? Analysis

Dana White announces three headline fights for UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden

From a plane in Washington, D.C., UFC CEO Dana White announced the three fights that will culminate in UFC 322, an event that will take place on November 15 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Five current and former champions will be in action in these three matches. The strawweight champion, Zhang Weili, will vacate her belt to move up to women’s flyweight and challenge the current champion, Valentina Shevchenko, in the co-main event. In addition, Islam Makhachev, ranked number 2 in the pound-for-pound rankings, will seek the welterweight title against champion Jack Della Maddalena. White also announced that former welterweight champion Leon Edwards will have the opportunity to break a two-fight losing streak against Carlos Prates. Despite this event promising to be high-caliber, the absence of a fight that was initially expected could generate some disappointment. Let’s analyze the details of this UFC 322 fight card.

Is this card better than if we had Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall at MSG?

No. Not even close. While the current alignment is impressive, a fight between Jones and Aspinall would have been one of the greatest in UFC history. Although the announced fights are of a high level, none come remotely close to the magnitude that that matchup would have. Jones is considered the best of all time, but his “reign” in heavyweight was somewhat disappointing. Imagine the excitement of seeing Jones facing an English challenger as dangerous as Aspinall to be crowned undisputed champion in his home state, New York? That would be the kind of fight that would attract celebrities in private jets from all over the country, a true spectacle. This reminds us of the disappointment caused by Jones’ decision to retire. It was a smart decision, no doubt. Why risk fighting Aspinall when his legacy and fortune were already secured? He made a business move, something uncommon in MMA, and in a way, that’s admirable. However, the way he prolonged the situation generated a lot of dissatisfaction. Despite this, UFC deserves credit for putting together a quality card for UFC 322, which will undoubtedly be a major event. However, the global excitement doesn’t compare to what a Jones vs. Aspinall would have generated.

Is it positive for MMA that champions must vacate their belts to move up a weight class?

Alexander Volkanovski, in the background, lost his attempt to become a two-division champion in consecutive defeats to Islam Makhachev, who now moves up to try to win a second belt.Although I am in the minority on this issue, interim title situations do not bother me. If Makhachev were to keep his lightweight title while pursuing another division’s title, it would seem appropriate to me. The argument for vacating the belt is to maintain fluidity in the division, but the real problem is money. With an interim belt, UFC can schedule important fights and pay contenders like champions. If a division stagnates, its fighters can’t earn money like champions, but an interim title solves that.

Another reason why I would be in favor of allowing a champion like Makhachev (or Zhang) to keep their belt is that, if they lose, they can return to their division and fight the interim champion in a unification. If Makhachev were to lose and return to 155 pounds, would it be fair for him to be the challenger for Ilia Topuria? UFC should allow a champion to move up a weight class, and only if the champion secures a second belt should they be forced to decide which division to continue in. In 2023, Alexander Volkanovski, featherweight champion, moved up a weight class, and UFC scheduled an interim championship in his absence. Volkanovski was unsuccessful at lightweight and returned to featherweight for a unification fight. This is how it should work.

Should Zhang and Makhachev be favored over Shevchenko and Della Maddalena?

Yes. Starting with the co-main event, Shevchenko is one of the best fighters in the history of women’s MMA, but she is 37 years old and has been less dominant, even in victory, in recent years. Zhang, at 36, seems to have less physical wear and tear than Shevchenko, who has competed in martial arts for more than half her life. In her last two fights, Shevchenko has demonstrated her champion pedigree with impressive performances against Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot. However, she found and exploited the weaknesses of both contenders. Against Zhang, Shevchenko will struggle to find a specific weakness to dominate.

Zhang Weili, strawweight champion since November 2022, will vacate her belt to compete for the women’s flyweight title at UFC 322.

When comparing the fighters’ resumes in the main event, it’s inevitable that Makhachev is the favorite. The feeling is that Makhachev, who traditionally fights at 155 pounds, will not be significantly smaller than Della Maddalena on fight night, and Makhachev’s world-class grappling helps offset any size disadvantage. That said, I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against Della Maddalena. Makhachev almost has to be the favorite for several reasons, but in practice, for me it’s a 50-50 fight.