UFC 320 and PFL: MMA Event Predictions and Key Bets

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Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira: Clash of Titans at UFC 320

The UFC 320 main event in Las Vegas features a high-caliber matchup. Magomed Ankalaev will seek to defend his light heavyweight title against Alex Pereira. The main card is scheduled for Saturday at 10 p.m. ET, and will be broadcast on ESPN PPV. The prelims will start at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS/ESPN+/Disney+/FX, followed by the early prelims at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+/Disney+/FX. Ankalaev comes to this fight after defeating Pereira by unanimous decision at UFC 313 in March. Ankalaev, ranked number 7 in ESPN’s pound-for-pound ranking, has not suffered a defeat since March 2018. For his part, Pereira, former middleweight and light heavyweight champion, will seek to regain lost ground. In the co-main event, Cory Sandhagen will challenge Merab Dvalishvili for the bantamweight championship. Dvalishvili, ranked number 3 in ESPN’s pound-for-pound rankings, will seek his third title defense, after obtaining the belt at UFC 306 in September 2024. Sandhagen, number 5 in bantamweight according to ESPN, secured his title opportunity after knocking out Deiveson Figueiredo in the second round at a UFC Fight Night in May. In addition, on Friday, the PFL returns with the PFL Champions Series Dubai event at the Coca-Cola Arena in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, at 11:30 a.m. ET on ESPN Unlimited. The main event will be the lightweight title rematch between Usman Nurmagomedov and Paul Hughes. Nurmagomedov won the first fight by majority decision in January.

Expert Predictions and Analysis

Alofoke Deportes analysts and commentators offer their predictions for the UFC title fights, while betting expert Ian Parker provides insights on the value bets available on both cards.

UFC Light Heavyweight Title Fight

I don’t like to make excuses, but I can’t ignore the fact that it was clear Pereira was extremely sick during the 10 days leading up to the first fight. He was overtrained and over-traveled. With a reset and some rest, I think he will show his true potential. Ankalaev fought at his peak in the first one. Pereira wasn’t close to his best level.

Anthony Smith

I almost always favor the guy who has more ways to win. Ankalaev fought the first fight during Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting, so, as this fight is outside of Ramadan, I think Ankalaev should have a little more energy, more enthusiasm in his step. He should be faster this time. He will be able to take down and connect more punches to win by decision.

Din Thomas

Betting Analysis

Parker predicts Ankalaev (-260) to win and for the fight to last more than 2.5 rounds. For Pereira to win, he must defend takedowns as he did in the first fight and unleash his hands. He cannot allow Ankalaev to dictate the pace and narrative of the fight. Parker believes the fight is likely to unfold similarly to the first one, with the possibility of Ankalaev achieving some takedowns. He recommends combining Ankalaev’s victory with over 2.5 rounds, which could offer a valuable bet.

UFC Bantamweight Title Fight

Sandhagen could be the most complete fighter in the division. He is definitely the most dangerous finisher, but he has a weakness and that is high-level, high-pressure fighters. I love Sandhagen’s game and style, but he hasn’t shown the ability to stop high-paced, well-conditioned fighters who engage a lot. He needs a finish to win, but Dvalishvili has been unstoppable.

Smith

Merab is constantly improving. Sandhagen is very good at solving puzzles, but Dvalishvili is always adding things to his game that Sandhagen probably hasn’t seen. Dvalishvili will be able to get the job done, by decision, obviously, we are talking about Merab here.

Thomas

Betting Analysis

Parker bets on Dvalishvili to win by decision (-210). Dvalishvili has been impeccable in his reign as champion, and Parker believes that streak will continue against Sandhagen. For Sandhagen to win, he will need a knockout or capitalize on a mistake by Dvalishvili. Parker anticipates an exciting fight, but with Dvalishvili winning by decision.

Parker’s Best Bets for the Rest of the UFC 320 Card

Light Heavyweight: Jiří Procházka vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Rountree to win (+145). Parker is surprised that Rountree is the underdog in this fight. Unless Procházka has become a phenomenal wrestler, the fight will stay standing, which favors Rountree, the better striker. Rountree is accurate and has tremendous power in both his hands and feet. Unless Procházka catches him early, the underdog will pull off the upset.Welterweight: Punahele Soriano vs. Nikolay Veretennikov Soriano to win (-270). Soriano shouldn’t have any problems getting the victory here. He’s better in every aspect of the fight. Veretennikov has been rocked and nearly finished in his two fights this year, and if Soriano rocks him, I doubt he has the durability to recover. Soriano could also wrestle here, as Veretennikov presents no submission threat. Bet on Soriano to win in your parlay, and if you want to get a prop for positive odds, Soriano by knockout may be a good value bet.

Parker’s Top Bets for the PFL Champions Series Dubai

Lightweight Title Fight: Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Paul Hughes The fight will go the distance. This should be another epic five-round fight. The first fight is a contender for fight of the year, so I expect no less in the rematch. However, I don’t expect Nurmagomedov to underestimate Hughes as he did in the first encounter. This time, Nurmagomedov knows what to expect, which will help him better plan his game. For Hughes, if he can defend takedowns and keep the fight standing, it becomes an even matchup. But if he allows Nurmagomedov to implement his wrestling and dictate the pace of the fight, he will end up losing again. Considering how close the last fight was and how durable both fighters are, he bets that the fight will go the distance.Light Heavyweight: Corey Anderson vs. Dovlet Yagshimuradov Anderson to win by KO/TKO/decision. Another rematch will decide who wins the PFL light heavyweight championship. In the first fight at Bellator 257 in April 2021, Anderson dominated with his wrestling and won by TKO in the third round. Yagshimuradov won last year’s PFL tournament with a victory over Impa Kasanganay, while Anderson moved up to heavyweight and defeated Denis Goltsov. In the rematch with Yagshimuradov, Anderson is the favorite. As long as Anderson avoids Yagshimuradov’s power, he should have no problem closing the distance and using his wrestling and pace to tire Yagshimuradov. Expect Anderson to win by TKO or decision.
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