Featherweight ex-champion Diego Lopes seeks to get back on the winning track by facing Jean Silva in the main event of UFC Fight Night this Saturday from the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio. The prelims will begin at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main event is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET.
Lopes, who holds the number 3 position in the featherweight rankings, comes to this fight after his defeat against Alexander Volkanovski in a fight for the vacant championship. Before this setback, Lopes had a streak of five consecutive victories.
For his part, Silva is undefeated in the UFC and has finished his last five opponents, with four knockouts and one submission.
Silva is difficult to take down, his takedown defense has been solid. In his last fight, he submitted a dangerous black belt like Bryce Mitchell. Diego is not a great wrestler and is vulnerable to strikes. Silva is someone you can’t connect many punches on. Something that gets lost in Silva’s antics is his technical ability. He has his hands down and is playful, but he is a technician who has a lot of power. Not only do I think Silva will win this fight, but I think he will go far in this division.
It’s hard to go against Silva. Lopes takes too many hits and Silva is very precise. I don’t think he’ll knock out Lopes because he’s tough and, if that’s the case, he’ll take the fight to the ground and play guard before getting knocked out.
Din Thomas
Betting Analysis
The odds are accurate as of September 11. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Over 2.5 rounds (-150). Lopes vs. Silva has everything you could want from a main event: two well-rounded fighters with great stamina who are always looking for the finish. Although I expect this fight to have many heart-stopping moments, I think it will go to the championship rounds.
Each of Lopes’ last three fights has gone the distance, but Silva hasn’t had a fight go to a decision since competing on “Dana White’s Contender Series” in 2023. However, Silva hasn’t fought anyone ranked in the UFC’s top 5, and Lopes hasn’t yet been finished in his UFC career. I believe Lopes has a big advantage if he can put Silva on the canvas, but standing, the striking is almost even. Bet on over 2.5 rounds.
Parker’s Best Bets for the Rest of the Card
Lightweight: Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
Gordon to win by KO, TKO, or decision. This is the perfect fight for Gordon, who comes into this fight after a first-round knockout of Thiago Moises. Gordon is a better fighter than Garcia, both standing and on the ground, but Garcia is more durable. Gordon is a -255 favorite by ESPN BET, and I don’t mind taking a risk here because I don’t see how he could lose the fight. If the money line odds are too expensive for you, bet on Gordon to win by KO, TKO, or decision.
Lightweight: Claudio Puelles vs. Joaquim Silva
Silva to win (par). Despite coming into this matchup on a two-fight losing streak, Puelles is a surprising betting favorite over Silva. Puelles’ only path to victory is to secure a leg lock, and I just don’t see it for him. Silva is the better athlete and the better striker. I expect him to keep this standing and impose himself on Puelles throughout the fight. If Silva can keep up the pace as he did against Clay Guida last December, expect Puelles to tire and possibly be finished.
Men’s Flyweight: Alessandro Costa vs. Alden Coria
Costa to win (-400). Costa has had ups and downs inside the Octagon, but his two losses have been against tough rivals like Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi. When he fought in the rankings, he knocked out Jimmy Flick and Kevin Borjas.
With odds close to 3 to 1, look to include Costa in your parlay. Coria is a good prospect with an even balance of knockout and submission finishes, but this is a big step up in competition, and I don’t see him doing well. Costa will keep the fight standing, if successful, but if necessary, he can also take it to the ground. As long as he doesn’t make a mistake, expect Costa to get the win.
