Attention mixed martial arts fanatics! UFC returns this weekend with an explosive card from Australia, headlined by the light heavyweight clash between Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes at the RAC Arena in Perth.
Ulberg vs. Reyes: Clash of Titans in the Octagon
Carlos Ulberg, ranked number 4 in the light heavyweight division, comes into this fight with an impressive streak of eight consecutive victories. In his last performance, he achieved a unanimous decision victory over former champion Jan Blachowicz.
On the other hand, Dominick Reyes, ranked number 7, is a former title contender looking to get back on track. Reyes has demonstrated his power by knocking out his last three opponents.
Reyes has been fighting intelligently lately. The question was always: “Is he good enough to be a champion?” He’s always been good enough. The problem is he’s made bad decisions in past fights. If he stays back, fights from the outside, and is smarter about when it’s appropriate to be aggressive, he can use his striking power and athleticism to his advantage. It won’t surprise me if Ulberg catches him. We’ve seen that before. But Reyes is big, talented, and he’s gotten back in his mind that he can aim for the title.
Anthony Smith
Normally, I don’t go with guys I’ve lost faith in, but this one is difficult. I lost faith in Reyes after he lost four in a row from 2020 to 2022, but I’ve recently regained it. He’s on a three-win streak and is confident. He has the ability to hit people. With his newfound confidence, I think he’ll outstrike Ulberg in all areas.
Din Thomas
Betting Analysis: Who Will Take the Victory?
The winner of this fight could position themselves as the next contender for the light heavyweight championship. Ulberg is a more complete fighter, but the odds of almost 2 to 1 in favor of Ulberg are too wide to bet on him.
Ulberg has won his last two fights by decision, and will not launch an attack to allow Reyes to counterattack, so for Reyes it’s win by knockout or fail. Both men are aware of each other’s power and will not engage in a brawl, so bet that the fight lasts more than 1.5 rounds.
Ulberg is expected to dictate the pace and extend the fight into the final rounds, while Reyes will seek a late knockout.
Predictions for the Rest of the Box Office
Peso Pluma: Jack Jenkins vs. Ramon Tavaras
Jenkins by KO/TKO/Decision. Stylistically, this is a good matchup for Jenkins. He should have the edge wherever the fight ends up, and I expect him to work damaging calf kicks early and often. Jenkins has climbed to almost a 3-1 favorite, so take a double-method of victory to lower the line.
Lightweight: Tom Nolan vs. Charlie Campbell
Nolan to win (-150). This should be a fun fight while it lasts. Nolan is huge for the weight class and knows how to really use his reach advantage, making it difficult for any opponent to land punches. Campbell accepts this fight on short notice, so look for him to be aggressive from the start rather than relying on his cardio to hold out in Round 2 and Round 3. Campbell is entertaining, but I think Nolan’s reach and versatile game will be too much for a 30-year-old making his first UFC appearance of 2025.
Light Heavyweight: Navajo Stirling vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Stirling to win at a distance. After consecutive decision victories for Stirling in his last two fights, I’m looking for him to get a finish. Bellato is physically strong, but has taken a lot of damage in his three UFC fights. It may only take one clean shot from Stirling to turn Bellato’s lights out. We’ve seen Bellato rally when his opponent has run out of energy, but I don’t see that happening here. Stirling showed a high fight IQ against Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan in his last two fights, so he won’t slow down, even if he can’t get the finish.
