MMA Predictions 2026: Jones, McGregor, and Surprising Retirements

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Bold Predictions for the MMA World in 2026

Although the world of mixed martial arts (MMA) doesn’t rest, it currently seems to be in a kind of recess. With more than three weeks passed since the last event and awaiting the next one on January 24th in Las Vegas, anticipation grows. In this context, we present some bold predictions for the 2026 calendar, knowing that unpredictability is a constant in this sport.

Jon Jones: Out of action in 2026?

Contrary to general expectation, we predict that Jon Jones will not compete in 2026. Although the fighter announced in July his intention to return, the reality is that Jones is 38 years old and his time in MMA is limited. Furthermore, he has had few fights in recent years. The decision to reject a lucrative fight against Tom Aspinall suggests that he does not need the money, which raises doubts about his return.

Dana White has stated that the chances of Jones headlining an event are minimal, and although the UFC CEO could change his mind, Jones’s trajectory, marked by suspensions and violations, generates uncertainty.

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Conor McGregor: Two Fights on the Horizon

The boldest prediction: McGregor will fight twice in 2026. The key could be an event. This event could be the opportunity he needs to regain discipline. He is expected to face Michael Chandler in June, a favorable matchup for McGregor. If he shows his best form, the UFC could offer him more opportunities, even for a title. If McGregor attends the event, a second fight at the end of the year wouldn’t be out of the question. With the media spotlight on him and in good shape, the UFC would seek to keep him active, possibly at Madison Square Garden in November. Although it seems unlikely, the possibility exists.

Multiple UFC Champions Retirements

It is possible that we will see several champions retiring in 2026. Considering the current champions, heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall faces a medical issue. Alex Pereira, light heavyweight champion, is 38 years old. Khamzat Chimaev, middleweight champion, has expressed his lack of enthusiasm for the sport. Ilia Topuria, featherweight and lightweight champion, has hinted at his retirement several times. Alexander Volkanovski, featherweight champion, could also retire. Furthermore, important figures like Justin Gaethje, Kamaru Usman, and Kayla Harrison could consider retirement. The fight between Harrison and Nunes on January 24 could mark the beginning of the end for both.
Amanda Nunes
Amanda Nunes is one of the four UFC fighters who retired during their reign as champion since 2020.Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

The End of the BMF Belt

It’s time for the BMF (Baddest Motherfucker) belt to come to an end. Nate Diaz, Jorge Masvidal, Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, and Max Holloway have participated in fights for this belt. With Charles Oliveira joining the list in March, the time is right to conclude this stage. Although the BMF belt has been an effective marketing tool, its impact seems to have diminished. The UFC should announce that the fight between Holloway and Oliveira will be the last for this title.

Usman Nurmagomedov Stays in PFL

Usman Nurmagomedov, PFL lightweight champion and cousin of Khabib Nurmagomedov, will renew his contract with PFL. Despite being considered one of the best lightweights in the world, the reasons for his stay are several. PFL needs Nurmagomedov and will prioritize his continuity. PFL signed an agreement with the Department of Economy and Tourism of Dubai, and Nurmagomedov’s name carries significant weight in the region. Furthermore, his talent makes him a key figure for the PFL brand. The UFC lightweight division is already saturated. With an interim title fight between Gaethje and Pimblett, Topuria’s uncertain future, and Arman Tsarukyan waiting for his opportunity, there isn’t much room for Nurmagomedov at the moment. Nurmagomedov’s presence in the PFL would benefit the sport by promoting competition and offering more opportunities for fighters.
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