Analysis of MMA fighters under 25 with championship potential
ESPN’s list of the top 25 MMA fighters under 25 has been led by four different names in the last four years: Song Yadong in 2021, Usman Nurmagomedov in 2022, Erin Blanchfield in 2023, and, most recently, Tatsuro Taira. Although each of these fighters has achieved success in their respective promotions, only one has reached the top in this sport.
Despite the other fighters not yet competing for a title in their UFC careers, all three have recently suffered defeats that could have propelled them into title contention. Despite these losses, each appears to be in a position to re-aspire to the top of their respective divisions, so we analyze their paths to a possible title fight.
Erin Blanchfield (Women’s Flyweight)
Victories needed for a title: Two or less. Next fight: May 31st against Maycee Barber.Current situation: After losing to Manon Fiorot in a fight to be the number one contender last March, Blanchfield recovered with a unanimous decision victory over former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas in November. This victory put her back in the title fight.
After Fiorot’s defeat to the champion, Valentina Shevchenko, at UFC 315 last month, the only fighter ahead of Blanchfield in the division’s rankings is Natalia Silva, who now appears to be the main contender after dominating former champion Alexa Grasso at UFC 315.A victory over Barber would solidify Blanchfield’s position among the top two fighters in the division, but it wouldn’t guarantee her a title shot. Instead, it would create a couple of possible scenarios.
- If Silva gets the next title opportunity, Blanchfield would be next in line to challenge the winner of that fight. Blanchfield could wait for her chance to compete for the championship, or she could seek revenge for her loss to Fiorot.
- The UFC could take a different, and more likely, direction and organize a champion-vs-champion fight between Shevchenko and strawweight champion Zhang Weili. That bout would open the door to a number one contender or interim title fight between Blanchfield and Silva.
Blanchfield’s path to the belt: If I were Blanchfield, I would want Silva to lose to Shevchenko in her next title defense, because Shevchenko is a better matchup for Blanchfield. Silva would likely be the favorite over Blanchfield, because her striking is miles ahead and she has elite takedown defense, as well as a black belt in jiu-jitsu. Blanchfield would need to take the fight to the ground and keep it there to have any chance of winning.
Tatsuro Taira (Men’s Flyweight)
Victories needed for a title: Three or more. Next fight: August 2nd against Amir Albazi.Current situation: Like Blanchfield, Taira was likely one win away from competing for a championship last year. But a split-decision loss to Brandon Royval dashed his hopes for a title fight.
Taira needs a win over Albazi this summer to get back into the win column and re-enter the title fight. Albazi is the perfect opponent for Taira in terms of style and is ranked ahead of him in the UFC rankings.
Taira’s path to the belt: With a victory over Albazi, especially if he secures a finish, Taira could call for a fight with someone like former champion Brandon Moreno or former Bellator champion Kyoji Horiguchi. Considering Alexandre Pantoja is scheduled to defend his title against Kai Kara-France and Royval faces Manel Kape on the same UFC 317 card, a win over Albazi likely wouldn’t propel Taira into a title fight.
For Taira, it won’t make a difference if Kara-France or Pantoja win at UFC 317, but the loser of Royval against Kape could be an option. With Moreno waiting to be scheduled for a fight at UFC 320 in September, Taira could face Horiguchi or Kape, if he loses against Royval.
Song Yadong (Men’s Bantamweight)
Victories needed for a title: Four or more. Next fight: To be determined. Current situation: Song has had ups and downs since losing to Cory Sandhagen in September 2022, but he recovered from a loss to Petr Yan with a unanimous decision victory over Henry Cejudo in February. The victory was controversial due to eye strikes, but that shouldn’t change his position in the division because he dominated that fight.Song’s path to the belt: As ESPN’s No. 7 bantamweight who has suffered defeats to fighters ranked above him, there is no direct path to a title fight for Song. However, Umar Nurmagomedov’s loss to champion Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 makes Nurmagomedov an option. Nurmagomedov’s grappling and pressure would be a challenge for Song, but a loss wouldn’t set Song back much in this crowded division.
Considering that Sandhagen is coming off the best win of his career over Deiveson Figueiredo and Yan has won consecutive fights, including against Song at UFC 299 last March, Sandhagen and Yan will likely face each other in a rematch to establish a top contender. That would leave Song looking to fight Nurmagomedov or a newcomer like Marcus McGhee. Fighting, and beating, Nurmagomedov would be the fastest path to compete for a championship, but the most likely fight is against McGhee. If Song were to fight McGhee, a dominant victory could earn him a high-ranked opponent, but he would still be two or three wins away from a title fight.
