World Baseball Classic 2026: Analysis and Predictions
The 2026 World Baseball Classic is underway! Over the next two weeks, the biggest stars on the planet will face off under the spotlights of the international stage.
What teams join the United States as favorites to win the championship? Who are the main candidates to surprise the world? And which superstars will shine the most in this event? It’s time to analyze everything with our WBC power rankings, contender tiers, and keys to reign in 2026.
Level I: The Super Teams Trio
United States
Group B | Title probabilities: -110
Most Valuable Player (MVP) most likely: Bobby Witt Jr. was a 22-year-old emerging runner who only had two at-bats in the last edition of the WBC. Since then, he has won two Gold Gloves and two Silver Bats, finished in the top five in MVP voting twice and accumulated 24.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, behind only Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge. At 25 years old, he could already be one of the top three players in the sport and is poised to shine in this tournament. – Alden Gonzalez
Factor X: Nolan McLean is among the most surprising entries to this tournament, because top pitching prospects are rarely involved. And the 24-year-old right-handed pitcher for the Mets will end up playing an important role. After a dizzying episode, McLean is ready to start on Tuesday against Italy. After that, USA manager Mark DeRosa said McLean would be in the lineup to pitch in a possible championship game. US team officials are confident that McLean’s explosive stuff will play against some of the best in the world. They are about to find out. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: With a winning percentage of .600 in the first five WBCs, the United States ranks fifth in winning percentage, behind Japan, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Korea. Against those four teams plus Mexico and Cuba, the United States has an 11-13 record. – David Schoenfield
United States will win if… the pitching is as good as advertised. This is the best pitching staff Team USA has assembled for a WBC, although Tarik Skubal will only make a shortened start against overmatched Great Britain and Joe Ryan won’t be available until the knockout stage. With Paul Skenes, Skubal, Logan Webb and Ryan, if his back pain doesn’t keep him out, the United States has the best rotation in the tournament. McLean, Clay Holmes and Matthew Boyd offer depth. Mason Miller is the closer, and the bridge to him is sturdy. The lineup, with Aaron Judge in the middle, should score a lot. If the pitching works, the Americans could go undefeated. – Jorge CastilloDescription: 1:37Judge: The U.S. Team looks to bring Olympic hockey momentum to the WBC. Aaron Judge joins Pat McAfee to explain how the U.S. Team looks to bring Olympic hockey momentum to the World Baseball Classic.
Dominican Republic
Group D | Title Odds: +400
Most likely MVP: Juan Soto. In a team of superstars, he is the alpha. In a lineup composed of some of the best hitters in the game, he is the best of all. Soto is not the captain, but he is the one who will set the pace for the Dominican Republic. Three years ago, Soto hit 6-for-15 with five extra-base hits in the tournament, but the Dominican team did not advance beyond the group stage. He will make sure that doesn’t happen again. – Gonzalez
Factor X: Cristopher Sanchez competes in his first WBC, and he does so after a highly successful season that saw him record an ERA of 2.50, compile 202 regular season innings, and finish second in the National League Cy Young voting. He is the ace of a Dominican pitching staff that looks much better than three years ago, and he needs to dominate in his two starts. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: The Dominican Republic won it all in 2013, with a record of 8-0, one of the two teams that remained undefeated throughout the tournament. (Japan had a 7-0 record in 2023.) Robinson Cano was the MVP of the tournament in 2013 and Fernando Rodney earned seven saves, but you surely remember the pitching hero in the 3-0 victory over Puerto Rico in the championship: Yes, Samuel Deduno pitched five scoreless innings and Rodney ultimately closed out the game. – Schoenfield
The Dominican Republic will win if… the bullpen throws strikes. The lineup is possibly the best in the tournament. The rotation is strong even without Framber Valdez and Freddy Peralta (who are not pitching in this year’s event). The relief corps is talented with great stuff almost everywhere, but walks could be a problem. Right-handers Seranthony Domínguez and Camilo Doval ranked among the bottom nine in walk rate among Major League relievers last season. Huascar Brazoban and Wandy Peralta had walk rates of 9.7%. Abner Uribe had a walk rate of 9.1%. If they can control the strike zone, the Dominicans will rebound from their disastrous 2023 performance. Otherwise, they won’t beat the other top teams in the tournament. – Castillo
Japan
Group C | Title Odds: +350
Most Likely MVP: This isn’t complicated: it’s Shohei Ohtani, even if he’ll only be batting in the WBC. Before coming out of the bullpen to strike out Mike Trout and win a championship in the 2023 WBC, Ohtani recorded a 1.345 OPS in the tournament. His batting practice exhibition in Japan recently made adults act like children. No, Ohtani won’t make an emergency pitching appearance, but he should do enough with the bat to lead Samurai Japan once again. – Gonzalez
Factor X: Hiromi Itoh went 14-8 with a 2.52 ERA in 196⅔ innings for the Nippon-Ham Fighters and won the Sawamura Award as the NPB’s best pitcher last year, an honor Yoshinobu Yamamoto won three straight times. Yamamoto will join Itoh in this year’s rotation, but could be limited given his workload last fall. Ohtani and Yu Darvish, meanwhile, won’t be pitching. And Itoh is the one who will have to step up. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Masataka Yoshida drove in 13 runs in Japan’s title run in 2023, his third WBC title, the most in any individual tournament. He’s back on the roster, but with Ohtani slated for the majority of DH duties, Japan would have to deploy him in the outfield, where he has played just seven games in the last two years with the Red Sox. – Schoenfield
Japan will win if… the initial rotation holds without Ohtani, Darvish, and Roki Sasaki. Ohtani is on the team only as a hitter. Sasaki opted to stay in camp with the Dodgers. Darvish is out for the season.
The Japanese rotation is still among the best in the tournament. Yamamoto is one of the best pitchers in the world. Itoh won the Sawamura Award, the NPB’s Cy Young, last season. Yusei Kikuchi is a quality Major League starter. But Japan lacks the depth of 2023. Tomoyuki Sugano, who had a 4.64 ERA in his first Major League season, is expected to start a game. Tatsuya Imai could join the team in the knockout stage, but that’s not a guarantee. There’s also Yamamoto’s status. He’s coming off a Herculean effort in October. Will the Dodgers allow him to take on a heavy workload in this tournament? Even if he does, will he be dominant? It would be difficult for Japan to repeat if he isn’t. – Castillo
Level II: Major Threats
Venezuela
Group D | Title probabilities: +900
Most Likely MVP: Ronald Acuña Jr. is the biggest star on this team, of course, but Jackson Chourio shouldn’t be overlooked. In two seasons of Major League Baseball at 20 and 21 years old, he has hit 42 home runs, stolen 43 bases, recorded an OPS of .781, and accumulated 6.8 fWAR. He then played some winter ball in Venezuela this offseason, so he’ll be more than ready to face top-tier pitchers in this tournament. – Gonzalez
Factor X: Dominant left-handed reliever Jose Alvarado couldn’t be secured for this tournament, so it appears Eduard Bazardo will be setting up and Daniel Palencia closing games. Bazardo and Palencia are coming off strong seasons for the Seattle Mariners and Chicago Cubs, respectively, and give Venezuela the kind of one-two punch at the end of games that it didn’t necessarily have in 2023. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Venezuela is the best team that has never reached a final, finishing third in 2009 as their best result. For the first time, they will play without Miguel Cabrera, who played at least one game in the first five WBCs. He is serving as batting coach this year. – Schoenfield
Venezuela can go far if… Acuña stands out. For some reason, it seems that Acuña is flying under the radar. The former National League MVP made a place among the most important and exciting players in the world when he returned from an injury last season. He was one of the few positives in a miserable season for Atlanta, batting .290 with 21 home runs and an OPS of .935 in 95 games. His skill set and his swagger can change games, and tournaments. If Acuña can hit some home runs and steal some bases, he will energize his team and electrify the crowd in Miami. With that, Venezuela could finally break through and reach its first final. – Castillo
Mexico
Group B | Title odds: 22-1
Most Likely MVP: Nobody embodies the spirit of the WBC better than Randy Arozarena, the Cuban-born outfielder who continues to represent the country where he established his residency on his way to the United States. Three years ago, Arozarena was the heart and soul of a Mexican team that went further than many expected, batting .450/.607/.900 and capturing the attention of fans throughout the tournament. This is his stage. – Gonzalez
Factor X: The Mexican team will likely have to fight their way through this tournament, so the X factors will be those surrounding Arozarena in the lineup, namely Alejandro Kirk, Jonathan Aranda, Rowdy Tellez, Alek Thomas, and Jarren Duran. This is a better and deeper offensive unit than the 2023 edition. It needs to prove it. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Mexico has a 3-1 record against the United States in WBC history, losing 2-0 in the group stage in 2006, but then eliminating the United States with a 2-1 victory in the second round, as eight pitchers combined for a three-hit game. Mexico also won 5-2 in 2013 and 11-5 in 2023 when Joey Meneses hit two home runs. – Schoenfield
Mexico can go far if… the pitching surprises. Mexico reached the semifinals in 2023, and nearly knocked off Japan, thanks to a solid starting rotation. That group looks very different this time. Julio Urias, the ace of the 2023 staff, is out of baseball after a second suspension for domestic violence. Jose Urquidy was not given a sure thing. Taj Bradley would have been an important addition, but decided not to participate. For now, the rotation has two confirmed starters: Taijuan Walker and Javier Assad. Mexico could opt for openers in their other two group stage games. Regardless, a robust bullpen with Andres Muñoz as closer must deliver for Mexico to make another run. – Castillo
Puerto Rico
Group A | Title probabilities: 20-1
Most Likely MVP: Some in the Giants have been excited about the work Heliot Ramos did this offseason, believing he’s ready for a breakout year in 2026. Puerto Rico needs that resurgence to start a little earlier, with the outfielder anchoring a lineup that has absorbed several key losses heading into this tournament. – Gonzalez
Factor X: Three years ago, Edwin Díaz tore his knee while celebrating an exciting victory over the Dominican Republic, a devastating blow on what was supposed to be a momentous night in Miami. His willingness to return, he called it an “easy yes”, given that Puerto Rico will host the group stage games, is a huge boost for a team that has been defined by its absences. If Díaz is getting the ball in the ninth inning, Puerto Rico is in good shape. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Runner-up in 2013 and 2017, Puerto Rico has an impressive 23-11 record in WBC history. They had a perfect 7-0 record before the 2017 championship game, but lost 8-0 to the United States. – Schoenfield
Puerto Rico can go far if… unannounced players emerge to help the lineup overcome significant absences. Puerto Rico’s position player group isn’t as robust as expected without four mainstays: Star infielders Francisco Lindor and Carlos Correa were not cleared for insurance. Javier Báez, an All-Star last season, was suspended for failing a drug test in 2023. Kiké Hernández is still recovering from offseason elbow surgery.
The alignment remains solid without them. Nolan Arenado is a future Hall of Famer. Ramos and Willi Castro have been All-Stars. Eddie Rosario and Christian Vázquez have extensive experience in the WBC and postseason. But others need to step up and deliver. Outfielders Bryan Torres, Carlos Cortes and Matthew Lugo, and infielders Edwin Arroyo, Darell Hernaiz and Luis Vázquez will be among the first-time participants given the opportunity. – Castillo
Korea
Group C | Title probabilities: 65-1
Most Likely MVP: Jung Hoo Lee and Hyeseong Kim are the MLB players in Korea’s lineup, but watch out for Ahn Hyun-min, a 22-year-old who hit .334/.448/.547 with 22 home runs in 112 games in the Korean Baseball Organization last year. He’s already one of the most important hitters in the KBO and has caught the attention of MLB scouts. – Gonzalez
Factor X: Won Tae-in will anchor Korea’s rotation after posting a 3.24 ERA across a career-high 166⅔ innings for the Samsung Lions last year. He made three appearances for Korea in the 2023 WBC, but allowed three runs in 4⅓ innings. He’ll need to produce a better performance this time. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Korea reached the semifinals in 2006 and lost the title game in 2009 to Japan, but has not managed to advance beyond the group stage in three consecutive tournaments, with a record of 2-1 in 2013 (without advancing due to run difference), 1-2 in 2017 (losing to Israel and the Netherlands) and 2-2 in 2023. – Schoenfield
Korea can go far if… the pitching recovers from a terrible performance in 2023. Korea allowed eight runs in a surprising loss to Australia before conceding 13 to Japan in their first two games in 2023, resulting in not advancing beyond the group stage for a third consecutive WBC.
Hyun Jin Ryu, who hasn’t pitched for his country since the 2009 WBC, now leads the pitching staff. But he is 38 years old. The Koreans need Dane Dunning and a group of KBO pitchers, including Ko Young-pyo, Son Ju-young, So Hyeong-jun, and Jeong Woo-joo, to help avoid another disappointing performance. – Castillo
Level III: Surprise Candidates
Canada
Group A | Title probabilities: 50-1
Most Likely MVP: Freddie Freeman won’t be wearing the uniform this year, but Josh Naylor will, and he deserves our attention. Naylor made such an impression in Seattle at the end of last season that the Mariners made his re-signing their top priority (which they did with a five-year, $92.5 million contract). He puts the ball in play, hits for power, and has shown an incredible ability to steal bases despite below-average speed. In short, he’s perfect for a short tournament. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Canada has never advanced beyond the group stage, getting closest in the inaugural tournament in 2006, when it had a 2-1 record but was eliminated on run differential. Canada beat the United States in one of the biggest upsets in WBC history that year. That team featured Jason Bay, Justin Morneau, Matt Stairs and Corey Koskie, but the number 9 hitter, Adam Stern, who had 43 at-bats in the Major Leagues, was the hero with three hits and a home run. – Schoenfield
Canada could be this year’s surprise team if… the lineup hits for them to win. With Puerto Rico hit by absences, Canada has the best lineup in Group A, even without Freeman, who put on the uniform in 2023 but declined this time. The team will have Major League players from 1 to 9 led by Naylor and Tyler O’Neill. Bo Naylor is one of the best catchers in the tournament, Denzel Clarke could be the best defensive center fielder in the world, and outfield prospect Owen Caissie has true power.
Canadians have a solid trio of starting pitchers in Jameson Taillon, Michael Soroka, and Cal Quantrill, but Rob Zastryzny is their only reliever who appeared in a Major League game last season. Ultimately, they will need the offense to get them out of Group A, the most competitive group in the tournament, and into the knockout stage for the first time. – Castillo
Italy
Group B | Title probabilities: 80-1
Most Likely MVP: We haven’t seen the true potential of Jac Caglianone in the Major Leagues yet, but there’s a strong possibility we’ll see it in this tournament. Perhaps spring training provided an early indication. In his first 15 at-bats of the Cactus League, the prodigious power hitter of 23 years old from the Royals hit six hits, three of them for extra bases. One of his batted balls had a speed of 120.2 mph, making him the eighth player to reach 120 mph in the 11-year history of Statcast. Another, his only home run, was 460 feet. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Italy has won at least one game in every WBC, but has never defeated any of the traditional powers, with its biggest victories being two wins over Mexico. Most of the players on this year’s team have MLB experience, although there are two pitchers on the team actually from Italy in Claudio Scotti, who pitched briefly in the minors for the Mets, and Gabriele Quattrini. – Schoenfield
Italy could be the surprise team this year if… the influx of Major League players, especially pitchers, is enough to surpass Mexico for second place in Group B. Italy advanced from the group stage in 2023 with a very different roster. That group was played in Taiwan. This one will be played in Houston, which made it easier to convince Italian-American Major League players to commit. Aaron Nola will be the best starting pitcher ever to wear the uniform for Italy. The bullpen will be Italy’s best. The lineup, led by Vinnie Pasquantino and Caglianone, should have Major League players from 1 to 9. Italy is a real threat to advance to the quarterfinals. – Castillo
Cuba
Group A | Title probabilities: 80-1
Most Likely MVP: Let’s pick here. Alexei Ramírez will play in this tournament at 44 years old, 10 years after his last Major League season. He played in the inaugural WBC in 2006, when he was only 26, even before breaking out with the White Sox. Soon, he will be the oldest player in WBC history. What does he have left? Who knows. But it would be great to see him help Cuba make a surprising run. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: Cuba has an 18-14 record in WBC history, ranking fifth all-time in wins behind Japan (30), Puerto Rico (23), United States (21), and Dominican Republic (20). They reached the semifinals in 2023, defeating Australia in the quarterfinals before suffering a 14-2 thrashing against the United States. – Schoenfield
Cuba could be this year’s surprise team if… the pitching staff allows for low-scoring games. This team doesn’t resemble the loaded Cuban rosters of yesteryear when the country excelled in international play, including a second-place finish in the inaugural WBC in 2006. A dry pipeline and political decisions have produced a group of position players that is weak on paper. That’s how Ramirez, 44, makes the roster.
As a result, Cuba needs the pitching staff to keep games close. Left-hander Liván Moinelo, one of the best starters in the Japanese Professional Baseball League, is coming off of recording an ERA of 1.46 in 24 starts in Japan. Right-hander Raidel Martínez is one of the best relievers in the world with an ERA of 1.62 in eight NPB seasons and a league-leading 46 saves in 2025. It’s up to the star duo to lead the way. – Castillo
Colombia
Group A | Title probabilities: 80-1
Most Likely MVP: Michael Arroyo is likely this team’s best offensive player. The 21-year-old second baseman was ranked as the No. 62 MLB prospect by ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel heading into 2026, and is coming off a season in which he posted an .834 OPS, hit 17 home runs, and stole 12 bases in the Mariners’ Class A and Double-A affiliates. He has great contact skills, but can also provide power. And Colombia will need a lot of both. – Gonzalez
A fact to impress your friends: This is Colombia’s third consecutive appearance in the WBC, after having done so for the first time in 2017 when it defeated Canada and almost had a monumental surprise against the United States, losing 3-2 in 10 innings. It almost achieved another surprise against the United States in 2023, losing by the same score of 3-2. – Schoenfield
Colombia could be the surprise team of the year if… Jose Quintana takes care of business and the lineup exceeds expectations. Quintana, the best pitcher in the history of Colombian baseball, was not on that team in 2023. A good start from him in the group stage is essential to make noise in this tournament.
Offensively, Colombia does not have a player expected to make the Opening Day roster for the Major Leagues. Gio Urshela, who went 0-for-14 in 2023, is the most accomplished of the group. Arroyo, a top-100 prospect at 21 years old, has potential. Donovan Solano, Jorge Alfaro and Harold Ramírez are among the other recognizable names that Colombia will need to produce. – Castillo
