Tarik Skubal: Uncertain Future for the Tigers’ Star?
The free agent class for the 2025-2026 season will not feature figures of the stature of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, or Juan Soto. However, one name stands out above the rest, generating expectations and speculation about his possible departure: Tarik Skubal, the ace of the Detroit Tigers. After two consecutive seasons winning the American League Cy Young Award and leading his team to the postseason, Skubal’s situation poses a dilemma for the Tigers’ management. Keeping the left-handed pitcher in Detroit could be very costly, as he will enter the final year of his contract in 2026 and become a free agent. Projections suggest that Skubal could surpass Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s $325 million contract, and even become the first pitcher to reach $400 million. Faced with this crossroads, Tigers’ president of baseball operations, Scott Harris, faces a crucial decision that could define the future of the franchise. We analyze the three main options with industry experts.1. Skubal’s Transfer This Winter
This option was the least popular among the analysts consulted. A rival executive argued that getting rid of an ace before the regular season begins is not a viable strategy for a team with title aspirations. Some suggested that an offer that included a young pitcher with star potential could be enough to start internal conversations, but no one dared to defend a deal unless an amazing offer was presented.
A trade for a lesser sum could mean a shorter competitive period for the Tigers. Furthermore, parting with a player of Skubal’s caliber would label them as a small-market team, which could raise doubts about their ability to compete for other star players approaching free agency. The widespread opinion is that the Tigers could choose to keep Skubal for next season. However, the possibility of a trade is always present if the right offer comes along.2. Keep Skubal and trade him at the deadline if the season doesn’t go as planned
In the event that things don’t go as expected during the first half of the 2026 season, experts agreed that this would be the best option. Defining what it means for things to “not go well” is complicated, but the fight for a wild card spot at the trade deadline is where the gray area opens up. An agent commented that retaining Skubal beyond the trade deadline and missing the playoffs would be catastrophic.
The return for Skubal in a trade would be considerable, even in a temporary deal. It is estimated that the Tigers could receive two prospects within the top 100 or a young elite player. Offers should include a compensatory pick for the Tigers, similar to what they would receive if Skubal leaves as a free agent. According to a rival executive, Harris could be focused on 2027 and 2028 as the years of greatest competition. If things go well in 2026, the window would widen. Prospects Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark could be key players in the second half of 2026, so aiming for a takeoff in 2027 is logical. There is debate over whether Skubal would be worth more this winter or at the deadline, as it is difficult to predict the desperation of a contender at that time. It is assumed that the return would be less at the deadline.3. Retain Skubal, try to extend his contract, and get a draft pick if he leaves
This would be a bold decision in the current era, where the value of assets is fundamental. If Skubal leaves as a free agent, the compensation would be a draft pick in the 30th rounds, which is valued at 8-10 million dollars. The Tigers would have another chance to compete for the title with their ace and more time to convince him to stay in Detroit. Skubal has expressed his desire to remain on the team, so a deal cannot be ruled out. Another executive believes Harris is focused on making this happen. However, Skubal’s representation by Scott Boras makes it difficult for him to sign a deal without testing the market. Boras usually advises his clients to seek free agency. An additional factor to consider is the possible job instability next winter, as the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, 2026. It is unlikely that Boras would want Skubal on the market during a labor strike. Yamamoto’s contract ($325 million) and Max Fried’s ($218 million) are the benchmarks to beat. Boras’ agency didn’t achieve either of those contracts, so setting precedents is key for elite agencies. It’s also important to note that Skubal underwent Tommy John surgery and flexor tendon surgery, which could influence the projections of a long-term contract.Will Harris and the Tigers be able to win a bidding war? It’s unlikely, but if they offer a shorter contract with a record annual value and opt-out options, they would have a chance, albeit a small one, to retain their ace.
The problem for Detroit is its payroll. They ended last season with a payroll of $155 million, well below the competitive balance tax threshold. If Skubal aims for an annual value of 30 or 40 million, will the Tigers be able to justify allocating a quarter of their payroll to a single player? Or would signing Skubal be part of an effort to increase the payroll and adapt to the competitive window opening for the Tigers?If things go well in 2026, the Tigers could compete and keep Skubal for the whole season. Another executive speculated on Detroit’s options if they traded Skubal at the deadline: “They could trade Skubal and then re-sign him long-term, but I can’t imagine the series of events that would make that happen.”
Some sources mentioned that Detroit is looking for pitching depth at the start of free agency. Will it be to cover a possible Skubal trade? An agreement now or at the deadline? Or simply to create depth for a successful season?
