The Future of Tarik Skubal: What Decision Will Detroit Make?
After three seasons without a star figure of the caliber of Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani or Juan Soto, the free agent class of 2025-26 does not have such resounding names. However, one player could be the key to a major move in the offseason: Tarik Skubal.
The possible departure of the Detroit Tigers’ ace generates uncertainty. Why would the team consider parting ways with their star pitcher, after he won the American League Cy Young Award for the second consecutive year and led the team to its second straight postseason? The answer is simple: keeping Skubal in Detroit will become very expensive.
The 28-year-old lefty will enter the final year of his contract in 2026, before becoming a free agent at the end of the season. If he hits the market next winter, Skubal could surpass the record contract of $325 million for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, pitcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and even become the first baseball pitcher to reach $400 million.
Faced with this crossroads, Tigers’ president of baseball operations, Scott Harris, faces a crucial decision that will define the future of the franchise. Industry experts were consulted, who suggested three main options.
Options for the Tigers
- Trade Skubal this winter: This was the least favored option among the experts. A rival executive explained that getting rid of the ace before the season starts makes no sense.
- Keep Skubal, but trade him at the deadline if the season doesn’t go as planned: In case things don’t go well in the first half of the 2026 season, this is the most sensible option.
- Keep Skubal no matter what, try to extend his contract and accept the draft pick if he leaves: A bold bet in the current era, focused on the value of assets.
Uncertainty surrounds Detroit’s decision. While Skubal has expressed his desire to stay in Detroit, his agent, Scott Boras, usually advises his clients to explore the free agent market.
Another factor to consider is the possible job instability next winter, with the current collective agreement expiring on December 1, 2026. This could influence negotiations and Boras’ strategy.
The records to beat are Yamamoto’s contract ($325 million) and Max Fried’s ($218 million), the highest for a left-handed pitcher. Detroit could have a chance if it offers a shorter contract with a record annual value and opt-out clauses.
The challenge for Detroit is its payroll. The team finished last season with a payroll of $155 million, well below the competitive balance tax threshold. If Skubal requires an annual salary of $30 or $40 million, the Tigers will need to assess whether they can justify that investment.
The key to Detroit lies in its long-term plan and the development of its young prospects, Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark. If both show a high level in 2026, this could boost the team’s competitiveness and convince Skubal to stay.
The team’s strategy regarding the offseason is key. Will they seek depth in pitching to replace Skubal, or to reinforce the team for a successful season? Detroit’s decision will have a significant impact on the franchise’s future.
