Detroit Tigers: From Cinderella to Contenders in Record Time
In August 2024, the Detroit Tigers seemed destined for another losing season, their eighth consecutive and tenth without reaching the playoffs. With a record of 55-63, ten games out of a wild card spot and behind five teams in the standings, hopes were slim. However, an unexpected turn changed the team’s course, transforming them into one of the most dominant teams in the American League.
On August 10, 2024, the Tigers found themselves in a precarious situation. The team had traded their starting pitcher Jack Flaherty at the July trade deadline. The lineup, in a 3-1 loss against the San Francisco Giants, showed Akil Baddoo as the leadoff hitter (.125 average), Gio Urshela in the fourth spot in the lineup (.605 OPS), and Bligh Madris playing first base and batting fifth (0.560 career OPS in the majors). The last four batters finished the game with an average below .200.
FanGraphs’ projections gave Detroit a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs, a figure that seemed optimistic.
But everything changed. The Tigers won the next day, and on August 15, Javier Báez hit a two-run homer in the eighth inning against Seattle Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz, securing a 2-1 victory. From there, the team went on a 31-13 run, finishing the season with an 86-76 record and securing a wild card spot, edging out Seattle by one win, before being eliminated in the American League Division Series.
The success continued in 2025. The Tigers have a record of 36-20, the best in the American League. Tuesday marked 100 games since the transformation began on August 11, and since then, they have had the best record in the majors:
- Detroit Tigers: 67-33, .670
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 64-36, .640
- New York Mets: 62-38, .620
- Philadelphia Phillies: 61-38, .616
The Keys to Success: In-Depth Analysis
What factors explain this surprising resurgence? Let’s analyze some of the key numbers behind Detroit’s astonishing transformation in the last 100 games.
1. Tarik Skubal: Dominance on the Mound
Tarik Skubal, with a 10-2 record, a 2.22 ERA, 149 strikeouts, and only 14 walks, was the winner of the American League Cy Young Award in 2024, and has elevated his game to a higher level. This season, Skubal boasts a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 92-7, that is, 13.14 strikeouts per walk, which would be the best in history for a qualified pitcher.
Skubal threw a no-hitter against the Cleveland Guardians on Sunday, allowing only two hits and striking out 13 batters, recording a “game score” of 96, the highest since Domingo Germán also achieved a 96 in his perfect game in 2023. Skubal’s final pitch: a 102.6 mph fastball to strike out Gabriel Arias, the fastest strikeout pitch by a starting pitcher in the pitch tracking era.This historic performance included his first complete game of his career, with only 94 pitches. A scoreless game with fewer than 100 pitches is known as a Maddux, in honor of Hall of Famer Greg Maddux. Skubal is the first pitcher to throw a scoreless game with fewer than 100 pitches and at least 13 strikeouts since pitch tracking began in 1988.
“I was a little excited, to be honest, before the entrance started,” Skubal said after the game. “It was great. I thought the 12-year-old me wouldn’t believe I’d have the opportunity for the fanbase to support you the way they do and be in that moment.”
Tarik Skubal
Guardians manager Stephen Vogt called him the best pitcher in baseball, and it’s hard to argue with that statement.
2. An Unstoppable Bullpen
The Tigers lead the majors with a 2.78 ERA in the bullpen. Let’s analyze the performance of the relief corps in the last two seasons:
- From the start of the 2024 season until August 10: 4.16 ERA (20th in the majors)
- From August 11 to the end of the season: 2.35 ERA (2nd in the majors)
- 2025: 3.31 ERA (7th in the majors)
Although the bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as in the last seven weeks of 2024, it has been effective. Manager A.J. Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter deserve credit for their management. Tommy Kahnle, signed as a free agent, has shared closing responsibilities with Will Vest, with Kahnle recording six saves and Vest, with his powerful arm, securing four wins and seven saves.
This situation has been more of a necessity than a master plan. Jason Foley led the team with 28 saves in 2024, but was sent to Triple-A at the start of this season after struggling in spring training. In mid-April, Foley discussed his surprise and frustration at being sent to the minors, but after allowing one hit in 6⅔ scoreless innings in five games for Toledo, Foley was placed on the injured list before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery earlier this month.
This could be an area where the Tigers will look to add depth. Kahnle has had success throwing changes 84% of the time, but hasn’t pitched 50 innings in a season since 2019. Beau Brieske had an ERA of 3.18 last season as a reliever, but in 2025 he has 5.29 with only 12 strikeouts in 17 innings. Overall, the bullpen ranks 22nd in the majors in terms of strikeout percentage, so it’s more of a contact-seeking pitching staff.
3. Renewed Offensive: More Power and Effectiveness
The Tigers have an OPS of .726, ranking among the top 10 in the majors. Let’s break this down into the same three periods:
- From the start of the 2024 season through August 10: .674 OPS (27th in the majors, 4.12 runs per game)
- From August 11 to the end of the season: .714 OPS (13th in the majors, 4.45 runs per game)
- 2025: .736 OPS (8th in the majors, 5.07 runs per game)
During the first four months of 2024, Detroit’s offense was poor, similar to every season since 2017. In those years, the Tigers ranked 10th or worse in the American League in runs, consistently near the bottom in on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The offense improved in the final stretch of 2024, but it has been even better this season. Detroit hadn’t averaged at least 5.0 runs per game for an entire season since 2008.
The Tigers have also improved their OBP from .300 last season to .325 so far in 2025. Two keys here: free agent Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 draft pick of 2020. Torres, signed to a one-year, $15 million contract, has an OBP of .380, well above his .334 career mark at the start of the season. There are reasons to believe he could maintain this pace, as he ranks in the 99th percentile in chase rate, continuing a two-year improvement, going from a 25.9% chase rate in 2023 to 21.4% in 2024 and 16.0% in 2025. This has helped him get more walks than strikeouts and a solid .277 average. Torkelson, for his part, is batting .238/.351/.513 with 13 home runs and 40 RBIs, a big improvement over last year’s .219/.295/.374 line that led to a two-month suspension in Triple-A. He hit 31 home runs in 2023, so he has produced power numbers before, but this time he’s doing it with fewer strikeouts and more walks. His timing has improved, especially when hitting more fly balls (and fewer ground balls). His defensive metrics have also improved a lot. So far, this is a much better player than what we saw even in 2023, let alone in 2024.4. Javier Báez: A New Role with Impact
Javier Báez is batting .280/.315/.459 in 2025. Manager Hinch has done a fantastic job mixing up his lineups, especially since Matt Vierling, who was second behind Riley Greene in WAR among position players in 2024, has just returned to action in 2025. The Tigers have also been without outfielders Parker Meadows and Wenceel Pérez all season. With Vierling and Meadows injured, they were left without a center fielder. The initial plan featured low-hitting infielder Ryan Kreidler plus a bit of Greene, but Kreidler didn’t hit and Greene is better suited for a corner position.
So the Tigers got creative, with Báez, of all players. Despite that key home run against the Mariners, Báez was one of the worst players in the majors in 2024, batting .184/.221/.294 with minus 1.1 WAR. They made their late run last year primarily without Báez, who played his last game on August 22. With three years and $73 million remaining on his contract and the Tigers looking to give the shortstop position to rookie Trey Sweeney, they seemed stuck with a utility infielder on an expensive contract.After training in center field in spring training, Báez made his first start there on April 22.
“One of the things Javy has always been involved in is winning,” Hinch said at the time. “And he asked what he needed to do to help this team win. You can make adjustments at the plate, play clean defense, the base running he brings. But the reality is that the most important message was: We are going to need you in multiple positions. And he totally agreed, and I think he has taken it in stride because he saw that our team was winning.”
A.J. Hinch
Baez’s offense had been in decline in his three seasons with the Tigers, so he’s finally producing at the plate for the first time since 2021. His defense in center has been more than acceptable. Can he keep it up? Probably not. He’s the same ultra-aggressive hitter, with a chase rate that still exceeds 40%. His hard-hit rates are still well below where they were during his best seasons with the Chicago Cubs. Meadows has just begun a rehab assignment and will likely take over center when he returns, but Baez has at least shown he can help as a utility player.
In addition to Vierling, another player who can play everywhere on the field, suddenly the Detroit lineup is not only versatile, but also deep from one to nine with a good bench.
5. Promises on the Mound: Mize and Jobe
Casey Mize and Jackson Jobe have a combined 10-2 record with a 3.23 ERA in 2025. The continued success of Mize and Jobe could be the key for the Tigers to dominate the American League Central Division and maintain this winning pace over 162 games. Mize is 6-1 with a 2.45 ERA, but has a 3.90 FIP, as he has allowed a .215 average and .255 OBP despite averaging 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings, which is below average. Jobe is 4-1 with a 4.03 ERA, but a 5.02 FIP, as he has a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio of 35-24.
Despite the difference between their effectiveness and their FIP, there are reasons to believe in both pitchers. In Mize’s case, he throws strikes (with only 10 walks in nine starts), and his expected stats show a .208 average and a .369 slugging percentage, almost a perfect match with his actual results, so he has done a good job of limiting hard contact and inducing an above-average ground ball rate.
For Jobe, it’s all about improving projection. We’ve seen it in his last three starts, as the high-ranking rookie pitcher induced some more swings and misses: 14, 11, and 11, respectively, after failing to reach double digits in his first six starts. His changeup has been effective, giving him a good weapon against left-handed hitters. The problem is that his four-seam fastball, although averaging 96.6 mph, doesn’t miss many bats. Since he doesn’t get much extension on his release, his “effective” velocity is only 93.0 mph, so it plays a bit down despite a fairly high spin rate (81st percentile). In a nutshell: he’s in his ninth career start and has shown the potential that made him a top prospect.
And the conclusion for the Tigers in general? They are clearly up to the task, with improved offensive depth, a dominant number 1 starter, and a top-tier manager who knows how to use his roster. Detroit also has a solid farm system, number 3 in the preseason rankings, which will allow them to be one of the teams most likely to add significant help at the trade deadline.
The Tigers haven’t won 100 games since 1984, which coincidentally is the last time they won the World Series. This team has the roster to make you believe that both things could happen again in 2025.
