Colorado Rockies: Heading for a Historic Losing Season?
It seems that even the Colorado Rockies have their limits. After a humiliating 21-0 defeat to the San Diego Padres, which left the team’s record at 6-33, management made a drastic decision.
The team fired its manager, Bud Black, despite the vote of confidence that general manager Bill Schmidt had previously given him. Colorado is heading towards a seventh consecutive losing season, and could be following in the footsteps of the 2024 Chicago White Sox, who pursued the modern record for losses in a season.
Saturday’s loss was the culmination of a seven-game stretch in which the Rockies allowed six, nine, eight, ten, eleven, thirteen, and twenty-one runs, respectively. They became the first team in MLB history to allow at least eight runs and then increase the number of runs allowed in each of their next four games. The 21-0 loss was the third-largest run differential in Major League history since 1901. The Rockies’ pitching line during that seven-game stretch was: 62 innings pitched, 96 hits, 25 walks, 49 strikeouts, 11 home runs, a .353 batting average, and a 9.00 ERA.
And the effectiveness was 9.00 only because 16 of the 78 total runs allowed were unearned.
This might suggest that the Rockies, contrary to what owner Dick Monfort claimed in February, will not have one of the best infield defenses in “history.” Instead, the Rockies rank 28th in the majors in defensive runs saved at all positions, and last in runs allowed and second-to-last in runs scored.
Of course, this is not Black’s fault. The Rockies have been heading in this direction for years, trying to build primarily from within, as they rarely make trades or sign free agents. The belief throughout the sport is that the Rockies lag far behind other organizations in the application of analytics and that they have made significant mistakes, such as not getting enough in return for Nolan Arenado or letting Trevor Story go to free agency without trading him.
The Rockies managed to win on Sunday in what would be Black’s last game after nine seasons, improving to 7-33, with third base coach Warren Schaeffer taking over as interim manager for the rest of the season and former Rockies manager Clint Hurdle, recently named the team’s hitting coach, taking over as bench coach.
“While we all share responsibility for how this season has unfolded, these changes are necessary,” Monfort said in a statement. “We will use the remainder of 2025 to improve where we can on the field and to evaluate all areas of our operation so that we can properly transition to the next stage of Rockies Baseball.”
Dick Monfort
Comparisons to the White Sox are inevitable. The Rockies’ record through their first 40 games, before Monday’s loss to Texas, put them on pace to finish 28-134, which would be 13 games worse than Chicago’s 41-121 record.
It’s not that the Rockies haven’t earned that win-loss record: they’ve been outscored by 128 runs, the second-worst run differential through the first 40 games since 1900, with only the 2023 Oakland Athletics worse at minus-144. Those Athletics were 9-31 after 40 games and 12-50 after 62 games, a 31-win pace, but at least they managed to play a little better the rest of the way and finished 50-112.
So, maybe there’s hope for the Rockies.
In fact, that’s what made the White Sox so incredible last year: it took a whole lot of consistently terrible baseball to lose 121 games. They were 12-28 after 40 games and 14-30 after 44 games before the losing streak really got going:
- May 17 to June 6: 1-18
- July 10 to August 5: 0-21
- August 17 to September 13: 3-22
To the White Sox’s credit, they managed to win five of their last six games, so while they have the most losses since 1900, their winning percentage of .253 is not the worst, with the 1916 Athletics (.235), the 1935 Braves (.248), the 1962 Mets (.250), and the 1904 Senators (.252) all worse.
But the Rockies are playing from behind with such a historically bad start. They have the opportunity to set a new record for losses in a single season. And here are the three reasons why they could catch the White Sox:
1. The Starting Pitching is Terrible
The Rockies have an ERA of 7.09 after 40 games, which is the worst in the National League since… the 2004 Rockies had an ERA of 7.33. Only two other teams, the Baltimore Orioles and the Miami Marlins, have a rotation ERA above 4.62 this season. On the other hand, the 2024 White Sox managed to rank 25th in the majors in rotation ERA. They had two excellent starters in Garrett Crochet (6-12, 3.58 ERA, 4.1 WAR) and Erick Fedde (7-4, 3.11 ERA, 4.6 WAR), at least until Fedde was traded at the trade deadline.
Meanwhile, the Rockies still rely on Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, and Antonio Senzatela, the same trio that appeared in the rotation when the Rockies reached the playoffs in 2017 and 2018. They were worth a combined total of 13.2 WAR in 2018, but that was seven years ago, and the Rockies’ loyalty in contract extensions to the three has not paid off. Freeland signed a five-year, $64 million extension in 2022, but has an ERA of 5.01 and only 3.4 WAR since then. Marquez signed a two-year, $20 million extension coming off Tommy John surgery in 2023, but has an ERA of 8.27 this season. Senzatela has won four games since signing a $50.5 million contract in 2022.
In 2025, they have a combined 2-17 with an ERA of 6.79 while allowing an average of .349. Chase Dollander was the team’s top prospect at the start of the season, but he has an ERA of 6.88 in seven career starts and the poor Bradley Blalock was left to allow 12 runs on Saturday. And it’s not just that they’re pitching at Coors Field either. Certainly, injuries have played a role with Marquez and Senzatela, but Freeland has been mostly healthy… and has an ERA of 4.51 on the road since 2022.
In other words, while the White Sox’s rotation at least kept them in games at times, the Rockies are often out of the game before they can get to their bullpen.
2. The Offensive Could Be Worse
The White Sox batted .221/.278/.340 while scoring only 507 runs in 2024, a remarkable 97 fewer than the next-lowest team. The Rockies are batting .219/.286/.360 in their first 40 games and are on pace for 539 runs. They have marginally better raw stats, but that doesn’t account for Coors Field. They are batting .189 in 20 road games.
The 2024 White Sox were a historically bad offense. The only player with regular playing time who finished with an above-average OPS+ was Tommy Pham, who posted a 103 OPS+ in 297 plate appearances. Their top three players in plate appearances were Andrew Vaughn (98 OPS+), Andrew Benintendi (94), and Gavin Sheets (89). The players at the bottom of the roster were even worse than that, with players like Miguel Vargas (.104 average in 135 at-bats), Martin Maldonado (.119 average in 135 at-bats), and Dominic Fletcher (.206 average, one home run in 223 at-bats).
The Rockies have two players with an above-average OPS+ in catcher/DH Hunter Goodman (127) and outfielder Jordan Beck (131). While I’m skeptical about whether either player can sustain that, they have other hitters who could improve, including Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle, and Michael Toglia, who posted an OPS+ above 100 last season (though, barely).
Chicago finished with a wRC+ (weighted runs created plus) of 75. That figure is adjusted for the home park and the era, and is tied for the 13th worst since 1947 and ranks third worst since 2000. Meanwhile, Colorado currently has a wRC+ of 66. That would be the worst since 1947, worse than the 1963 Mets, who hit .219/.285/.315 on their way to a wRC+ of 69.
Even so, the Rockies had the second-worst wRC+ last season, only ahead of the White Sox, and brought back almost entirely the same group of players. Like the White Sox, the Rockies are not particularly young either. Chicago’s average age in 2024, adjusted for playing time, was 27.8 years old, right at the MLB average of 27.9; Colorado is 28.0 years old, just below the MLB average of 28.2.
Is help on the way? Prospect infielder Adael Amador is in the majors now and batting .173 in his first 20 games. Former first-rounder Zac Veen was up for a time and hit .118 in 34 at-bats. Outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez is one of the team’s top prospects and is batting .208 in Triple-A. And the rest of their hitting prospects are further away. They will get a boost when Tovar returns from the injured list, but any improvement will have to come from the players already on the roster.
3. They Have a More Difficult Schedule
While the American League Central saw three teams make the playoffs and four teams finish above .500 in 2024 (beating the White Sox helped in that regard), the National League West Division of 2025 looks like a much tougher division. Some numbers:
In 2024, the other four American League Central teams went 226-213 outside the division (.522). So far in 2025, the other four National League West teams are 80-58 outside the division (.579).
The trap here is that the Rockies have only played 13 games so far within their division, and they have gone 2-11. They still have 39 of their remaining 52 division games to play. It doesn’t help that, with the Rockies playing their worst baseball right now, they are in the middle of a tough stretch: their only series between now and June 12 against teams with losing records are the current series against Texas (the Rangers entered the series 20-21) and one against the Marlins from June 2-4.
So, can the Rockies lose 122 games?
They weren’t predicted to be this bad. In fact, FanGraphs projects they will play near .400 the rest of the way and finish 55-107.
The biggest difference between the 2025 Rockies and the 2024 White Sox is the bullpen. Chicago had a bad bullpen that went 15-49 with a 4.73 ERA and was particularly bad in close games, finishing with minus 11.22 win probability added, the worst total for any bullpen since 2000.
Colorado ranks 19th in bullpen effectiveness with a 4.07 ERA, and their high-leverage relievers have been solid, with the Rockies also ranking 19th in the majors with a bullpen WPA of 0.57, although they are 0-3 in extra-inning games (the White Sox were 4-10 in extra-inning games). Jake Bird and Seth Halvorsen have been effective, while Zach Agnos has a couple of saves and only one earned run allowed in 10 ⅓ innings, although he has only struck out four batters. If the Rockies can hold onto the leads they get, they should be able to avoid the fate of the White Sox.
However, they will have to earn those advantages to begin with. Eleven of the Rockies’ 34 losses are considered “blowout” losses, by five or more runs. That’s around 32%. The 2024 White Sox had a blowout loss rate of 31%. The 1962 Mets were also at 31%. That tells us the Rockies have a chance to catch up to last year’s historic White Sox club.
It’s an astonishingly bad start to the season. But here’s perhaps the most astonishing number of all: the Rockies drew 38,423 fans for that 21-run loss on Saturday.
Give the marketing managers of the Rockies a raise.
