Orioles Champions, Skubal to Dodgers: MLB 2026 Predictions

alofoke
14 Min Read

Happy New Year, baseball fanatics!

With the calendar marking 2026, what surprises will the king of sports bring us after an epic 2025? Our Alofoke Deportes experts venture to predict the most outstanding events of the coming year. From revealing teams to trends that will dominate the scene, we analyze the predictions that will give much to talk about in 2026.

Revelation Teams

The Baltimore Orioles will be crowned World Series champions in 2026. Despite finishing last in the American League East in 2025, the Orioles managed 75 wins, the most for a fifth-place team. Since then, the franchise has bolstered its roster with key veterans, including Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Shane Baz, Zach Eflin, and closer Ryan Helsley. Gunnar Henderson is expected to regain his 2024 form. Trevor Rogers could maintain his 2025 level. In addition, the promising Samuel Basallo aims to be a rising star. The Orioles are serious, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Jackson Holliday excel as an American League All-Star and achieve a 30/30 season. The Seattle Mariners will win their first World Series title. This will be the year Julio Rodriguez establishes himself as one of the best players in baseball, Cal Raleigh continues his dominance as the best catcher in the Major Leagues, and Colt Emerson is called up to the majors in May, winning the American League Rookie of the Year award. The Mariners are at the beginning of a period of dominance that could resemble that achieved by the Astros between 2015 and 2024.

Dominican Republic Imposes its Law in the World Baseball Classic Final Rematch

Japan, the defending champion, will have Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The United States will present a stellar team with figures like Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh, Bobby Witt Jr., Kyle Schwarber, Tarik Skubal, and Paul Skenes. Everything points to a repeat of the 2023 final. However, the Dominican Republic will emerge victorious. Their powerful lineup, a real headache for pitchers, includes Juan Soto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., José Ramírez, Geraldo Perdomo, Julio Rodríguez, Ketel Marte, Junior Caminero, Fernando Tatis Jr., Elly De La Cruz and possibly Manny Machado. The challenge for manager Albert Pujols will be deciding who to put in the lineup. The key will reside in a more solid pitching staff, which could include Cristopher Sánchez, Freddy Peralta, Framber Valdez, Luis Castillo, Sandy Alcantara, Jhoan Duran and Bryan Abreu, as long as everyone is available. After winning in 2013, the Dominican Republic had early exits in 2017 (second round) and 2023 (group stage), with a record of 6-4. Memorable home runs, great “bat flips” and, possibly, an undefeated path to the championship are expected.

The Year of the Pirates?

The Pittsburgh Pirates will reach the postseason for the first time since 2015. The top priority for the Pirates this offseason was clear: improve an offense that ranked last in the majors in runs scored to avoid wasting another year of Paul Skenes and the rest of a solid pitching staff. So far, things are looking good. The Pirates failed to sign one of the most prominent hitters available this winter, despite showing real interest in Kyle Schwarber and Josh Naylor, among others, but still managed to greatly boost the lineup with first baseman/designated hitter Ryan O’Hearn and second baseman Brandon Lowe, in addition to speedy outfielder Jake Mangum and promising outfield prospect Jhostynxon Garcia on board. The numbers illustrate the potential for substantial improvement: Spencer Horwitz led the Pirates with a wRC+ of 119 and Joey Bart was the only other Pirate above the league average with a wRC+ of 101 last season. Meanwhile, O’Hearn, a first-time All-Star in 2025, recorded a wRC+ of 127. Lowe recorded a 114. O’Neil Cruz led Pittsburgh with 20 home runs, while Bryan Reynolds finished second with 16. Only Lowe hit 31 home runs and O’Hearn hit 17. Then there’s shortstop Konnor Griffin, the promising prospect who turns 20 in April and could be on the Pirates’ roster by then after arriving and excelling in Double-A last season. Pittsburgh finished 12 games behind the Cincinnati Reds, who won 83 games, for the third wild card spot. It’s likely that 83 wins won’t be enough to make the postseason in 2026, so the Pirates will need a big jump to break their postseason drought. But if the pitching staff continues where it left off (the group recorded the seventh-best ERA in baseball, with Skenes compiling a 1.97 ERA and winning the National League Cy Young award) and the lineup additions perform according to their potential, the Pirates could make a lot of noise. Konnor Griffin wins the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2026, and the Pirates win the National League Central Division. Griffin, the top baseball prospect entering 2026, has already been considered a candidate to get the shortstop job on Opening Day, and he’s a five-tool player who should force his way into the Pirates’ lineup, perhaps on a similar fast track to Paul Skenes. Griffin’s arrival will continue the Pirates’ youth movement, and although the team will need to make the right free agent moves for the rest of this winter, as well as before the trade deadline in season, they should take a notable step forward in 2026. With the National League Central Division open in my opinion, an early start by the Pirates gives them the momentum to advance to October.

Bomb Movements

Skubal will be traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers in July. For several reasons, from the rarity of a three-peat to the potential for a new economic landscape starting in 2027, the Dodgers will surely play all their cards in their quest for another title. They may even be able to trade for Skubal as a “rental” if the move takes them to a third consecutive championship, while almost any other team would need to immediately sign him to a long-term contract to justify giving up the prospects they would undoubtedly need to get a back-to-back Cy Young winner. If the Tigers are out of the race, Los Angeles simply makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for Skubal, that is, assuming he is not traded in the coming weeks. Kyle Tucker will settle for a “pillow contract”. As the offseason begins, Kiley McDaniel projected an 11-year, $418 million deal for Tucker, the most important free agent on the market according to consensus. But history suggests caution: the vast majority of mega-contracts for free agents are completed in early winter, with Manny Machado (February 21, 2019) and Bryce Harper (March 1, 2019) as notable exceptions. At the dawn of 2026, if Tucker shifts his course towards a short, high-AAV deal, almost every club in the big market would have a reason to participate.

Topics You Will Master in 2026

It will be a year of progress for small market clubs.

At least half of the 12-team playoff group next season will be made up of teams in the bottom half of the payroll standings, including at least three in the bottom 10. Top low-payroll contenders among the bottom 10: Pittsburgh Pirates, Miami Marlins, Cleveland Guardians, Cincinnati Reds, and Athletics, although the actual payroll hierarchy is still to be seen. But there are many smaller market teams that seem to be trying, and it would be great to see a surge of those teams next October. And it would be really interesting to see what kind of effect a large-scale postseason collapse by revenue-sharing beneficiaries would have on the shady labor negotiations.

Going from the basement to the postseason will become the latest trend. Two of the teams that will reach the 2026 playoffs will have finished last in their division in 2025, and neither of them will be the Orioles. While changes from last to first are not unheard of, the six teams in the basement last year averaged only 64.5 wins and 28.5 games out of first. Just to earn a wild card spot would likely require an improvement of 18 to 20 wins. For Baltimore, just a year removed from a 91-win season, turning things around isn’t such a far-fetched concept, even playing in a stacked AL East… but let’s take a gamble and predict that there will be at least a couple of postseason appearances ahead for the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels, the Washington Nationals, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Colorado Rockies. There will be a 50-home run season… from someone who hit less than 40 in 2025. Last year around this time, predicting that Cal Raleigh, with his then personal record of 34 home runs, would hit 60 home runs in 2025 would have drawn a lot of laughs. While I’m not willing to go that far, I will say that history repeats itself by giving us a new member of the 50-home run club who has never gone over 30 before. Three main candidates to consider: James Wood, Riley Greene, and Nick Kurtz. Green hit 36 home runs last season and Wood hit 32 even though both finished in the bottom five in K%. While neither will lead the league in batting average, both are young and if either can reduce their strikeout rate from the 30% range to the Kyle Schwarber or Cal Raleigh range (26-27%), 50 home runs can become a distinct possibility. Kurtz, on the other hand, is a simple mathematical bet after a rookie season in which he hit 36 home runs in just 117 games. Shohei Ohtani will win the National League Cy Young. He won the World Series in his first postseason trip, then another, and started the 50/50 club in a year in which he couldn’t pitch, becoming the first full-time designated hitter to win an MVP. Now he has four of those trophies, all in a span of just five years. But there’s one thing left for Ohtani to establish himself as the best baseball player of all time, and that is to assert his dominance as a pitcher.

Don’t think for a second that he hasn’t noticed that either. Because, despite all the praise he has received for his offensive dominance and two-way personality, Ohtani’s pitching has long been considered inferior to his hitting. Some have wondered if he should give it up altogether. This year, as he shares rotation with two of his compatriots and benefits from the resources of the Dodgers, will be the moment when Ohtani asserts his dominance on the mound like never before.

In the end, there will be no doubt: no one is or will be like Shohei Ohtani.
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