Ohtani to Toronto: A parallel universe in the World Series?

Parallel Universe: How Would the 2025 World Series Look if Ohtani and Sasaki Had Chosen the Blue Jays?

The 2025 World Series is about to begin in Toronto, and the anticipation is high. Shohei Ohtani, in the Los Angeles Dodgers uniform, prepares for his first at-bat in the Fall Classic. However, there is an alternative reality where Ohtani could be playing for the Toronto Blue Jays, even pitching in the first game. Similarly, Roki Sasaki, who became the closer the Dodgers needed, could be playing for the Blue Jays. How close were Ohtani and Sasaki to joining the Blue Jays instead of the Dodgers? Let’s delve into this analysis.

• Ohtani Timeline
• Sasaki Timeline
• The Jays with Ohtani
• Dodgers’ Plan B?

Ohtani’s Decision and the Blue Jays: A Story That Never Happened

The rumor that Shohei Ohtani would join the Blue Jays spread quickly. On Friday, December 8, 2023, speculation soared when it was learned that a private jet, with tail number N616RH, would fly from California to Toronto. The connection to Oakland, where Ohtani had met with the San Francisco Giants, and the date of December 8, coinciding with the day he signed with the Angels, fueled the expectation.

The media reported that Ohtani was heading to Toronto, and fans gathered at Pearson Airport. However, the plane was carrying Robert Herjavec, and Ohtani announced his decision to join the Dodgers. The rest is history.

Sasaki and the Blue Jays: Another Chapter of “What Could Have Been”

Roki Sasaki, upon announcing his arrival in the Major Leagues, became the most sought-after free agent. After meeting with several teams, including the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Rangers, and Giants, the list was narrowed down to three finalists: Padres, Dodgers, and, surprisingly, the Blue Jays. Sasaki visited Toronto, and the Blue Jays seemed to be a serious contender. On January 17, reports indicated that the Padres were out of the running, which meant that Sasaki’s decision would be between Los Angeles and Toronto. The Blue Jays even acquired Myles Straw to get more space in the international bonus pool, presumably for Sasaki. Finally, Sasaki announced via Instagram that he would join the Dodgers, leaving Toronto once again at the gates.

Simulating the Last Two Seasons with Ohtani in Toronto

Reimagining baseball history, especially with a high-profile move like Ohtani’s choice of the Dodgers, requires decisions. Ohtani’s arrival at the Dodgers triggered a series of moves in the league. You can’t simply reverse the situation and predict the exact outcome.The Dodgers: Ohtani’s absence would affect their performance, but it wouldn’t mean the end. The Dodgers would have reallocated the funds intended for Ohtani to other players. Estimating an impact of five fewer wins per season, their overall performance would be reduced.Blue Jays: The situation in Toronto is more complex, as we know the decisions they made after not getting Ohtani. Financially, Ohtani would have had a similar impact to the Dodgers. Without Ohtani, the Blue Jays signed Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier, and Turner. The difference between their production and Ohtani’s is significant, adding value to the team. Incorporating Ohtani in 2025 would have been more financially challenging. However, Ohtani’s arrival would have been a gain for the Blue Jays, who had superior performance.Simulations: In 2024, the Blue Jays would have won the World Series in only three out of 10,000 simulations. With Ohtani, they made the playoffs more often. The Dodgers, without Ohtani, reached the playoffs in a smaller percentage, but still competed in the World Series in a considerable number of simulations. In 2025, Ohtani’s presence would have turned the Blue Jays into a team with a higher probability of success, surpassing the Dodgers in the World Series simulations. If Shohei had been on that plane, the Dodgers-Blue Jays World Series would have been very different. The Blue Jays would have had a higher probability of winning, which contrasts with the current predictions that favor the Dodgers.

Five Key Moves the Dodgers Could Have Made Without Ohtani

If Ohtani hadn’t chosen the Dodgers, the team would have made other important decisions. Here are five possible moves they might have considered:

1. Dylan Cease: The Dodgers could have sought a trade to acquire Cease, a pitcher with a great arm.
2. Blake Snell: They could have signed Snell, who was coming off winning the Cy Young award, a year earlier.
3. Josh Hader: The need for an elite closer could have led the Dodgers to sign Hader.
4. Jung Hoo Lee: Lee, a star outfielder in Korea, could have been an option to reinforce center field.
5. Matt Chapman: They could have considered Chapman to strengthen third base.