MLB Trade Deadline Closing Analysis
The MLB trade deadline this year did not see moves of star players of the caliber of Juan Soto in 2022, nor the same amount of transactions as last year, when 68 trades were made. However, the 6 p.m. ET deadline was full of activity. Two surprising transfers were finalized: The Astros got Carlos Correa back, while the Athletics sent closer Mason Miller to the Padres in exchange for Leo De Vries, one of the best prospects in the game. Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber, still in rehabilitation in the minors, moved from Cleveland to Toronto, and the Orioles and Diamondbacks were very active, as expected. And the Twins? Well, we’ll get to them. Who were the biggest winners of this deadline? And who were the biggest losers, leaving much to be desired? Let’s delve in.The Big Winner: Seattle Mariners
The Mariners acquired the two best hitters available at the deadline: Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, in two separate trades with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and surprisingly didn’t have to give up any of their top 10 prospects. Excellent management by baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto, who has always been an aggressive negotiator, but has also been limited by a group of stingy owners who have restricted the Mariners’ payroll. With approval to add some dollars, Dipoto has built one of the best lineups in the majors, with the home run duo of Cal Raleigh and Suarez. The Mariners have only had one playoff appearance since 2001, losing them by a single game in each of the last two seasons after qualifying in 2022, so there was certainly urgency to go big in a season where the American League is wide open. They are still fighting for a wild card spot and trying to catch the Houston Astros in the American League West Division, so October is not guaranteed, and they will need more consistency from a rotation that was among the best in the majors in 2024, but ranks 14th in the majors in effectiveness this season (and 23rd on the road). The only drawback for Seattle on this deadline: Dipoto had said he wanted to add an impact reliever, and although he got left-hander Caleb Ferguson from the Pittsburgh Pirates, getting a high-caliber reliever for Andres Munoz would have crowned an even better trade deadline.Other Winners
Philadelphia PhilliesWith an aging roster and three starters performing at their peak in Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez, the Phillies are in win-now mode, and the arrival of Jhoan Duran addresses their biggest Achilles’ heel. Jordan Romano and his 6.81 ERA lead the team with eight saves. They will get Jose Alvarado back from his PED suspension, but he is not postseason eligible. Phillies fans don’t need to be reminded of the 2023 National League Championship Series (when Craig Kimbrel lost two games) or last year’s National League Division Series (when Jeff Hoffman lost twice). In Duran, baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski acquires not only an immediate upgrade for his closer, but also a long-term solution, as Duran is under team control until 2027. It cost the Phillies their number 4 and 5 prospects, catcher Eduardo Tait and pitcher Mick Abel, but Tait is still only 18 years old and years away from reaching the majors, while Abel had some struggles in six starts with the Phillies. With the need to improve their high-caliber relief, this was a deal the Phillies had to make. In a second trade with the Minnesota Twins, Dombrowski also added useful outfielder Harrison Bader, who provides a necessary right-handed bat and could end up being the starter in center field if he continues to hit as he did with Minnesota.New York MetsThe Mets’ bullpen had been struggling for two months, at least, aside from Edwin Diaz, who has been impeccable lately. So the president of baseball operations, David Stearns, used the deadline to remake it, turning it into what, at least on paper, now looks like one of the best in the game. Tyler Rogers is unconventional with his underhand delivery and his men’s league velocity, but he gets hitters to pound that sinker into the ground and has been one of the best relievers this season with an ERA of 1.80. Ryan Helsley and Gregory Soto provide a power arsenal from the right and left sides, respectively. With Diaz, Reed Garrett, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley already on the roster, this bullpen is now loaded. October baseball is a different game than the regular season: there are more off days, making it even easier to use the bullpen a lot. We’ve seen the 2021 Atlanta Braves, the 2022 Houston Astros, and the 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series thanks to their bullpens. The deals cost the Mets two of their top 10 prospects, infielder Jesus Baez (No. 5) and outfielder Drew Gilbert (No. 7), plus pitcher Blade Tidwell, who was number 10 on Baseball America’s list. Dombrowski and Stearns have shown why they are considered two of the best executives in the game: they are not afraid to make a bold move, acting a day before the deadline to make sure they get the best available relievers. To top it off, the Mets added center fielder Cedric Mullins, who gives them more offense than Tyrone Taylor but less defense. That will likely become a platoon situation or allow the Mets to distribute some DH at-bats to Juan Soto. Nothing wrong with improving the depth.Houston Astros
The Astros added Carlos Correa to play third base, outfielder Jesus Sanchez to give them a much-needed left-handed bat, and utility infielder Ramon Urias. They will get shortstop Jeremy Pena back on Friday, so suddenly the lineup has improved a lot compared to the makeshift group Houston has been using for much of July. Correa is shaping up to be one of the key players in these last two months, as the Astros seek to keep the Mariners and the Texas Rangers at bay in the American League West Division. He hasn’t been an impact hitter in 2025, batting .267/.319/.386 with only seven home runs in 93 games, but he is one season away from a 151 OPS+, when his OPS was 200 points higher than this year. It will be fascinating to see what happens in his return to Houston. The Astros have one of the best bullpens for the end of the game in the majors and one of the best 1-2 starting duos in Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown. They have been winning without Yordan Alvarez. They don’t necessarily need a great offense with their pitching, but they have a better one with Correa, Sanchez (.814 OPS against right-handed pitchers) and Urias.AthleticsThe Mason Miller trade for Leo De Vries was one of the most surprising we’ve seen in years, not only because top-100 overall prospects rarely get traded at the deadline, let alone a top-five prospect according to consensus in De Vries, but because the A’s got him for a reliever. Yes, a very good one in Miller, whom the San Diego Padres could try as a starter next season, but anytime you can trade a reliever for a potential superstar, you make the move. With 18 years old, De Vries is holding steady in High-A, with an OPS 60 points above the Midwest League average despite being the youngest player in the league (and one of only two teenage position players). You could say he’s where Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor were at this age, although you could also point to a long list of promoted teenagers who didn’t make it. Still, everyone thinks De Vries is the real deal and his precocious results suggest he should become at least an above-average regular player. This is a move that could change the franchise.New York YankeesGeneral manager Brian Cashman promised the Yankees would “go to town” at this deadline. They added third baseman Ryan McMahon, infielders Jose Caballero and Amed Rosario, closer David Bednar, outfielder Austin Slater, and reliever Jake Bird, which is… a lot of pieces. But is that going to town? McMahon could end up being one of the surprise acquisitions of the deadline, as escaping Colorado for a more analytical organization could be good for the psyche and the numbers. Caballero gives them an option to play at shortstop over the struggling Anthony Volpe or at least gives them one of the best base stealers in the game. But the Yankees didn’t get Eugenio Suarez or Jhoan Duran or a starting pitcher. In short: This wasn’t the Death Star strategy we always expect from the Yankees, but, in reality, they haven’t operated like that in a long time. Their most important moves at the deadline in recent years were Jazz Chisholm Jr. last year and Andrew Benintendi in 2022. Don’t remind Yankees fans of Joey Gallo in 2021. They have dramatically improved their depth and versatility, so we’ll call them winners, but did they do enough to catch the Toronto Blue Jays in the division?The Big Loser: Minnesota Twins… Fans
What a sad and brutal day to be a Twins fanatic. They were gone in this deadline period: Carlos Correa, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Louis Varland, Danny Coulombe, Harrison Bader, Willi Castro, Brock Stewart, and Chris Paddack. That’s nine players off the 26-man roster, including the back end of a championship-caliber bullpen. At least they kept Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton.Sure, some of those guys, Bader and Castro in particular, were heading to free agency. It’s more the message here: we’re cheap and we don’t care about winning. Was that likely this season? Probably not, as the Twins are 5 1/2 games out of the wild card race. But it wasn’t an impossible idea. A hot streak and they’re back in it. Is it likely next year? Probably not now. The Twins will need to build a complete bullpen from scratch, to start. They have a legitimate star position player in Buxton and he struggles to stay healthy.
Did they do well in the trades? Time will tell, but it’s not like they loaded up on top 100 prospects or anything like that. Catcher Eduardo Tait is the most interesting prospect they got, but he’s 18 in High-A and probably years away from making an impact. It’s possible that the Twins, if they spend some of the savings from trading Correa’s contract, could reallocate their resources to build a more competitive and complete team. It’s also possible that, with the team for sale, the Twins are entering an era of frugality similar to that of the Rays or the Pirates, pocketing more profits while the losses pile up. This Twins era began with a 101-win team in 2019. They signed Correa in 2022, but the Correa era will have only produced one playoff season in four years. It could be a few years before the Twins even think about the playoffs again. Twins fans can only hope that assessment is incorrect.Other Losers
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs weren’t inactive: they added infielder/utilityman Willi Castro and a couple of fringe pitchers in Michael Soroka and Andrew Kittredge, but it was a surprisingly unaggressive deadline for a team battling the Brewers for the National League Central title. No Eugenio Suarez. No impact starting pitcher like Merrill Kelly. None of the impact relievers who switched teams. The Cubs have a pretty good farm system, so they had the resources to make a trade for one of those players, but they erred on the side of caution. We’ll see if that costs them a division title or haunts them in October.Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox added pitchers Dustin May and Steven Matz. Meh. May had an ERA of 4.85 while starting for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Matz had an ERA of 3.44 pitching in relief for the St. Louis Cardinals. Both have some utility: May gives them a rotation option and Matz has been a multi-inning reliever, but they don’t really alter Boston’s playoff odds, especially considering the moves the Yankees and Blue Jays made or even the Tampa Bay Rays adding a couple of higher-impact pitchers in Adrian Houser and Griffin Jax. The Red Sox could have traded for a first baseman or gotten creative and traded from their outfield logjam. It’s understandable why they didn’t want to do that now, given that they’ve gone 17-7 in July. Why mess with that momentum? Still, a better starting pitcher than May or an impact reliever would have helped.Cincinnati RedsWe applaud the Reds for making a couple of deals; after all, they haven’t reached the playoffs in a full season since 2013, but Ke’Bryan Hayes and Zack Littell are strange. As my colleague Brad Doolittle wrote, Hayes is an excellent defensive third baseman, but he bats like a shortstop from the 1970s (he has the lowest slugging percentage of any player with 600 plate appearances in the last two seasons). The Reds will try Noelvi Marte in right field to clear space for Hayes, but since Marte had no experience in the outfield until 11 days ago, the gains Hayes provides in defense could be offset by Marte in right field. Yes, this can be seen as a long-term deal as much as a move to win now, as Hayes is signed until 2029, but once his defense declines a bit, he will be unplayable. Littell is also a strange acquisition, as the rotation has been a strength for the Reds and his home run tendencies, he leads the majors in home runs allowed, are an especially bad combination for the cozy confines of Great American Ballpark. He has only allowed 21 walks in 22 starts, so at least plus-plus command eliminates some of the damage from home runs. But Littell doesn’t seem like an upgrade over what the Reds already have and, unlike Hayes, he is a free agent after the season.Detroit TigersThe Tigers were busy adding pitching at the deadline, with starters Chris Paddack and Charlie Morton and relievers Kyle Finnegan, Paul Sewald, Rafael Montero, and Codi Heuer, but that group doesn’t do much to address the bullpen issues that have plagued the Tigers for two months and Paddack or Morton simply replace the injured Reese Olson without providing an upgrade. It’s true that, with a comfortable nine-game lead in the American League Central Division and their division rivals doing nothing to improve, the Tigers weren’t under any intense pressure to improve. Still, in a season in which the American League is so open, it was a disappointingly conservative approach to the trade deadline, especially since Detroit has one of the best farm systems in the majors. The Tigers didn’t have to trade Kevin McGonigle or Max Clark or Bryce Rainer to improve, but they should at least have added an impact reliever.Milwaukee BrewersThe Brewers are hardly losers in the grand scheme of things, as this is arguably the best team in baseball, and it can be argued that they already made their two big additions with the return of Brandon Woodruff a couple of weeks ago and the June call-up of fire-throwing rookie Jacob Misiorowski. It’s also true that their needs, a power bat for the lineup, didn’t match what was available, although Eugenio Suarez would have been a good addition. They got reliever Shelby Miller from the D-backs, who is having a good year, but the Brewers already had one of the best bullpens in the majors. And if Andrew Vaughn keeps hitting, they’ll be fine at first base, although he was terrible for the Chicago White Sox before the Brewers got him for a song. Ryan O’Hearn would have also been a good addition, able to play first base or the outfield and improve the bench, but he was traded to the San Diego Padres. The Brewers are battling the Cubs for the division title, and avoiding that wild card series will be huge. We’ll see if the Brewers can do it without making big deals.
