MLB: Who Will Sign Million-Dollar Contracts? Analysis and Rumors

MLB Movement and Signing Analysis: Implications for Fantasy Baseball

The MLB offseason is in full swing, with teams reinforcing their rosters and generating expectations for the upcoming season. At Alofoke Deportes, we keep you informed of the most important moves and their possible impacts on the world of fantasy baseball. As contracts are signed and trades are finalized, we analyze the implications for fantasy players and managers. While players were able to start signing with new teams from November 6th, the action intensified during the league’s annual winter meetings in Orlando, Florida, from December 7th to 10th. More news about transfers and signings is expected as we move towards 2026. Some of the most prominent players who could still join new teams include J.T. Realmuto, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman, and Framber Valdez. Here’s a breakdown of the most relevant transactions, separated by position and ordered chronologically, with the latest news first. We also include analysis and videos about the main signings and transfers.

Catcher

Nationals acquire Harry Ford from the Mariners: Ford, the No. 12 pick in the 2021 amateur draft, had a blocked path in Seattle by Cal Raleigh, but should have a legitimate opportunity with the Nationals, where Keibert Ruiz did not meet expectations in recent seasons. Questions remain about Ford’s power potential and defensive prowess (he could leave the catcher position), but there is little concern about his ability to get on base. Ford had a 16% walk rate and a .408 OBP in 97 Triple-A games last season, which matches previous results and is good news for investors in points leagues. In addition, Ford was a solid base-stealing threat for most of his minor league career, although he only stole seven bases in 11 attempts in Triple-A. Stealing more than a few bases in the Major Leagues would set him apart from other catchers, where only two (including Raleigh) reached double digits. It might be premature to call Ford a top-10 fantasy catcher when he begins his season at age 23, but he could certainly get there with volume and the reasonable appeal of home runs and double-digit stolen bases.Players to watch: J.T. Realmuto, Mitch Garver, Christian Vazquez

First base

Ryan O’Hearn signs with the Pirates: O’Hearn, 32, was an All-Star and a top-100 hitter in ESPN points formats last season, hitting 13 home runs for the Orioles and then four more for the Padres, with a solid walk rate. Perhaps most notably, he was far from a liability against left-handed pitching, with an .832 OPS against lefties in 109 PA. That’s a good sign for O’Hearn to have a chance to play full-time in Pittsburgh, where he can play first base, in the outfield, or as a designated hitter. O’Hearn is unlikely to become a 25 HR player, playing half the time in that picturesque, but pitcher-friendly, park. Still, he’s worth drafting in the late rounds of fantasy in many standard formats, perhaps providing similar production to much bigger and more popular names.Red Sox acquire Willson Contreras from the Cardinals: Contreras, no longer eligible as a catcher in fantasy leagues (sigh), finished outside the top 100 hitters in ESPN points formats with his 20 home runs, 80 RBIs, and a declining walk rate. Fantasy managers expected more with Contreras moving behind the plate, but Gavin Sheets, Ryan O’Hearn, and Miguel Vargas were among the unrecognized first base-eligible options that outperformed him in scoring. Contreras should see an increase in production when heading to Boston, batting in the middle of a stronger lineup and connecting countless doubles against the left field wall of Fenway Park. It would also be good to see his walk rate return to double digits. While his younger brother, William Contreras, is the one you want among the top 100 (and perhaps the top 50), Willson, starting his season at 34 years old, can still matter in ESPN formats. He should go in a draft spot similar to first base options Christian Walker, Spencer Torkelson, and Alec Burleson.

Josh Bell signs with the Twins: Bell, 33, hit 22 home runs and received 57 walks for the Nationals in 2025, which matches recent numbers, as he continues what appears to be a quest to play with every MLB franchise. These numbers hardly make Bell a fantasy star, but they are enough to make him one of the top 25 point scorers at first base. A contact-oriented first baseman is rare, but Bell recorded an 81.2% rate in 2025, with a low strikeout rate of 16.5%. Every at-bat that doesn’t end in a strikeout matters in points formats!

Bell, who signed a one-year contract and seems a candidate for another mid-season trade to a contender, will likely remain a free agent in ESPN’s shallow formats. However, in deeper and more traditional leagues, he has a role as a late-round pick, as his consistency has value. Bell is in a similar range in NFBC ADP to Jeff McNeil, Nathaniel Lowe, and Mike Yastrzemski, outside the top 400 overall.

Pete Alonso Signs with the Orioles: A year after testing the free agency waters only to return to the Mets on a two-year deal with an opt-out clause (which he predictably exercised), Alonso finally found his big payday, becoming the latest star to migrate to the American League East. Alonso gives the Orioles the big hitter they haven’t had, not just last year, but in a decade, as he has hit 34 or more home runs in each of his six full seasons in the Major Leagues, while no Oriole in history has more than four such campaigns (Boog Powell, Rafael Palmeiro). The Orioles’ home run leader in 2025 had 17, less than half of Alonso’s 38.

The incorporation of Alonso into the fourth spot, or possibly number 3, in the order, depending on the construction of the new manager Craig Albernaz’s lineup, provides a significant boost to the Orioles’ offense, especially to the team’s rising stars. If, and, really, when, the team sees an increase in run scoring as a result of the signing, perhaps closer to the 4.85 per game average he had in 2024, it will not be a coincidence that it came in years when the Orioles had a power bat in those productive lineup spots (it was Anthony Santander in 2024). Gunnar Henderson enjoyed a breakthrough 2024 that catapulted him into the first round in many fantasy drafts last season, scoring 118 runs split between the number 1 and 3 lineup spots, and is now a much more attractive bounce-back candidate with a stronger core around him. As for Alonso’s own numbers, the move to Baltimore’s Camden Yards could represent a notable boost to his power potential, as after the team moved the left field fence last season, the venue ranked second in home runs and seventh in run scoring among park factors. I prefer to use a three-year analysis, but with the dimensions changing, a reasonable assumption would be to slightly regress last season’s numbers, which would mean a decent increase in home runs. The number 27 player in terms of fantasy points and number 37 in the Player Rater (rotisserie scoring), Alonso should deliver similar numbers, if not a better round, in 2026.

One last thought: Alonso’s departure from the Mets, along with the trade of Brandon Nimmo, removes two of the team’s best on-base specialists. Yes, the Mets still have one of the best in baseball in that regard, Juan Soto, as well as an owner who will likely invest payroll in adequate replacements to compensate for the lack of bases, but there could be an adverse impact on the team’s run-scoring potential, depending on how that is addressed.

Josh Naylor re-signs with the Mariners: Among the most unexpected statistical results of 2025 were Naylor’s 30 stolen bases, a total bolstered by the 19 he stole in 54 games following his July trade from the Diamondbacks. With the rapid end, Naylor finished 16th overall in the Player Rater, his production in the stolen bases category made him especially valuable in leagues that use rotisserie scoring. He would also finish 36th in fantasy points, still an exceptional result.

Back in Seattle for the next five seasons, Naylor’s rotisserie value is less likely to regress than almost anywhere else. Under manager Dan Wilson, the Mariners were one of the most aggressive teams on the baseball bases, attempting steals in 8.7% of their opportunities with the most frequency of the season, and 10.0% with the second-highest frequency from the date of Naylor’s debut with the Mariners (July 25) onwards. Although he lacks top-level speed, Naylor has been successful in 85.9% of his career stolen base attempts, a facet of his game that Wilson should surely continue to exploit.

Perhaps the pitcher-friendly nature of Safeco Field will keep Naylor’s home run production closer to the 20 HR number he had in 2025 than the 30 he hit in 2024, but he’s much more likely to steal 20 bases in Seattle than the 7.3 he averaged from 2022-24. Once again, he’ll be a top-10 fantasy first baseman and a near top-50 overall player, valued similarly to fellow first baseman Freddie Freeman.

Players to watch: Paul Goldschmidt, Rhys Hoskins

Second base

Athletics Acquire Jeff McNeil from the Mets: While the real excitement around this trade will center on the Mets possibly pursuing Ketel Marte, McNeil landed in one of the best situations for a player who no longer seemed to have a role in New York. After all, Sacramento’s Sutter Health Park was one of the most hitter-friendly venues in baseball last season, ranking second in run scoring and sixth in home run factors, according to Statcast, setting aside for a moment the volatility involved in single-year park factors, which means that the park change alone should add some value to McNeil’s bat. He will play regularly for the A’s, presumably at second base, and his penchant for contact should keep him at the level of fantasy infielders, regardless of format.

Pirates Acquire Brandon Lowe from the Rays: Lowe hit 31 home runs for the Rays in 2025, tied for the most among all infielders, and it wasn’t a fluke. Lowe, 31, hit 39 home runs in 2021 and has always hit well against right-handed pitching (.500 slugging in his career). He doesn’t hit lefties well (.420 career, .695 OPS). The Pirates might not care. As a team, they hit only 117 home runs in 2025, 31 fewer than the next worst team in MLB (Cardinals). No Pirate reached 21 home runs. Lowe has done it in four of the last five seasons. Hitting at PNC Park can be a challenge, but Lowe’s power is legitimate.

On the other hand, Lowe used to be a better fantasy option, one that got a double-digit walk rate each season. That has decreased dramatically in the last two seasons, although his batting average has increased. It’s strange and potentially a problem. Lowe hit .256 last season, his best mark in a full season. He hasn’t been the most durable type, participating in 135 games only once in his career, and 15 second base eligible players scored more fantasy points last year. Still, Lowe is among the top 175 players in NFBC ADP, and should also appear in ESPN drafts. Just don’t make him a top 100 option.Jorge Polanco signs with the Mets: Well, it’s not Pete Alonso, but it seems the Mets intend for Polanco to replace Alonso at first base (and as a designated hitter) and offer some semblance of his production at a fraction of the price. This is semi-sensible. Polanco was a solid value for the Mariners and fantasy managers in 2025, finishing 61st among hitters in fantasy points when few drafted him on draft day. Polanco hit .265 with 26 home runs, each his best mark since 2021, with his adjusted approach halving his inflated strikeout rate while still increasing power in a challenging Seattle home park (where his OPS was .902). He’s entering just inside the top 250 of NFBC ADP, so he may not be drafted in ESPN formats, but there should be more interest in a left-handed and right-handed option eligible for second base coming off a 26 HR season who should gain eligibility at a second infield spot pretty quickly in 2026.

Mets Acquire Marcus Semien from the Rangers: Semien is coming off what was possibly the worst season of his long career, with an OPS of .669 and only 32 extra-base hits. While he was one of the most durable players in the sport for years, he missed 35 games in 2025, most with a foot injury at the end of the season, when many fantasy managers had already moved on. As recently as 2023, Semien was a fantasy staple.

Now, as he begins his season at 36 years old, Semien continues to see his hard contact rates and exit velocity figures going in the wrong direction. While leaving the pitchers’ haven of Globe Life Field for anywhere else feels like a significant improvement, it’s not like Citi Field is Coors Field either. These ballparks were similar for right-handed hitter power in 2025. Semien finished outside the top 20 second basemen in ESPN points, and he was number 28 in the position in the Player Rater (broken/categories). While it’s possible that Semien, who still runs well and defends, will recover a bit at the plate, he’s far from being a top 100 pick on draft day.

Players to watch: Luis Arraez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Shortstop

Players to watch: Ha-Seong Kim, Bo Bichette, Luis Rengifo, Willi Castro

Third base

Munetaka Murakami Signs with the White Sox: One of the best Japanese hitters heads to Chicago, where fantasy managers will dream of big power numbers. Murakami hit 56 home runs in 2022, and although he hasn’t come close to that number since, he hit 22 home runs in 56 games in a 2025 season that was shortened due to an injury. A third baseman who will likely play first base for Chicago, Murakami will also draw a lot of walks and strike out quite a bit, a quintessential three-outcome hitter. Fantasy managers shouldn’t expect a high batting average when he begins his season at age 26, but there is certainly top-tier potential among the top 200 in the points league. Murakami is among the top 250 in NFBC ADP, but that figure will certainly increase now that he has found a team.

Players to watch: Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suarez, Justin Turner, Yoan Moncada, Kazuma Okamoto

Outfield

Adolis García signs with the Phillies: García, who turns 33 in March, recorded an OPS of .665, the lowest of his career, for the 2025 Rangers, which is worse than what Nick Castellanos achieved, who is heading elsewhere from Philadelphia. García is a much better right fielder, well, all right fielders are, and the Phillies hope he returns, with this one-year contract, to his stellar production of 2023, when he hit 39 home runs with a 10.3% walk rate and an OPS of .836. Fantasy managers loved that version! That seems unlikely, especially since Garcia’s hard contact and barrel rates are going in the wrong direction, but leaving Globe Life Field for Citizens Bank Park seems to help. Garcia failed to finish among the top 50 outfielders in points scoring in 2025, and he’s outside that range in the first NFBC ADP, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised with a 25-homer rebound and an OPS more like his career mark of .734. Ignore Garcia in shallow three-outfielder ESPN formats, but be open to the possibility in traditional five-outfielder leagues.Mike Yastrzemski signs with the Braves: One might initially scoff at this signing for fantasy, but Yaz was a top-50 outfielder in ESPN points formats last season. The 17 home runs he hit for the Giants and Royals were on par with previous results, but the 72 walks and 12.9% walk rate were not. Add in the 558 PA (tying a career high) and this is a reasonable option in five-outfielder formats. The Braves will likely platoon Yastrzemski, as he hit a paltry .223 against lefties last season, but that makes him a live streamer in daily formats as well.Cedric Mullins signs with the Rays: Mullins may seem like someone that fantasy managers can ignore, as he batted only .216 for the Orioles and Mets last season and hasn’t batted above .235 since 2022, but the combination of power and speed remains interesting in deeper formats. Don’t expect another 30 HR and 30 SB season like in 2021, but Mullins has hit at least 15 home runs and stolen at least 19 bases each year since then. That matters, more in roto/category leagues, and compensates for the low batting average. Mullins struggled for the Mets after last summer’s trade, batting a dismal .182 in 42 games, but he has a fresh start in Tampa, presumably as a platoon option, because the Rays are into that sort of thing. That may help Mullins in batting average while he struggles with plate appearances. Either way, expect relevant home runs and stolen bases, which isn’t bad for a final outfielder. Mullins is just outside the top 75 outfielders and among the top 300 players in NFBC ADP. At 31, he’s not too old to bounce back a bit.

Rangers Acquire Brandon Nimmo from the Mets: Nimmo has been a reliable fantasy outfielder for four seasons, and is coming off a career-best 25 home runs in 2025. The problem, at least in points formats, is that his reliable double-digit walk rate plummeted to 7.7%. Still, Nimmo should hit near the top of the Texas lineup and, apparently, replace the late Adolis García, a very different player.

Nimmo has not been a fantastic source of on-base percentage in the last two seasons, but he still finished 2025 as the number 20 outfielder in points formats, and there is room for improvement. Moving to the pitcher-friendly Globe Life Park may not affect him as much as most, if he can rediscover his excellent plate discipline, continue to hit with modest power, and play in more than 150 games for a fifth consecutive campaign. This is not a top 100 player on draft day, but a good and reliable mid-round pick.

Orioles Acquire Taylor Ward from the Angels: In 2025, the Orioles hit 44 fewer home runs than the previous year and no one reached 20, so the franchise coveted power, especially from the right side. Ward helps the offense (although at a high cost of the young and controllable, although fragile, RHP Grayson Rodriguez), achieving a career high (easily) of 36 home runs last season, and also received 75 walks. Only five hitters reached the combination of both figures, and only 13 outfielders (39 hitters) scored more fantasy points.

It took several years, but Ward has finally delivered back-to-back seasons with power, plate discipline, and durability. His 2026 season will be the last before free agency, which is quite a motivating factor and likely a key reason why the Angels made him expendable. While the change in home park may not help, a better lineup around Ward, with SS Gunnar Henderson, who is expected to bounce back offensively, can compensate. Expect another solid power/walk season from Ward, who has been hovering around the 17th round of early National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) drafts.Players to watch: Cody Bellinger, Starling Marte, Kyle Tucker

Designated hitter

Kyle Schwarber re-signs with the Phillies for five years: Schwarber took his typical production to an even higher level in 2025, connecting 56 home runs, batting 132 runs and burning left-handed pitching, while playing all games and obtaining a walk rate of 14.9%. He was among the best options in both points and roto/categories formats, and there are few reasons to believe that Schwarber will have problems in 2026, even when he turns 33 years old. Schwarber is only a designated hitter for 2026, but this is a safe production for the first rounds of fantasy.

Players to watch: Marcell Ozuna, Andrew McCutchen

Starting pitcher

Orioles Acquire Shane Baz from the Rays: A former top prospect, he ranked number 15 in Kiley McDaniels’ top 100 before the 2022 season. Baz underwent a couple of elbow surgeries that year, first to remove loose bodies from his elbow in March and then Tommy John surgery in September, delaying his return to the majors by a year and a half. Forty-five starts later, he appears to be one of the best late-round pitching values of 2026, reflecting better peripherals than his 4.87 ERA last season indicated, with less concern in the health department than one might think.

Of course, I would be more intrigued by what Baz (whose average fastball velocity last season matched his pre-surgery peak of 2021 of 97.0 mph and, in fact, reached 97.5 after August 1) could have done in the pitching paradise Tropicana Field, but there are still reasons to think he’s heading for a growth season, even in Baltimore. The 64th-ranked starting pitcher in fantasy points last season, Baz has breakout potential among the top 50.

Red Sox acquire Johan Oviedo from the Pirates: Another pitcher to keep on spring training watchlists, Oviedo returned last season from Tommy John surgery with a more strikeout-oriented repertoire, although with the same control problems he’s had in 10 years as a professional. He worked higher in the strike zone with more lift on the pitch thanks to his elite extension, this gives his fastball a higher perceived velocity, and he got 4% more swings and strikes with it. He will have better chances of claiming a spot in the back rotation during spring training. Oviedo seems to be more of a streaming fantasy option than a regular mixed league option, but keep an eye on his progress in March as you formulate your potential end-of-staff list.

Cody Ponce Signs with the Blue Jays: The three years and $30 million he received from the Blue Jays might baffle fantasy managers, as the last time we saw Ponce pitch in the United States, he accumulated a 5.75 ERA in five starts and a 5.91 ERA in 15 relief appearances in 2020-21 working in a pitcher-friendly home for the Pittsburgh Pirates. However, this is not the same pitcher we saw then… and it’s not even close. Ponce, who worked for three years in Japan (2022-24), flourished in a move to the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) last season, winning the league MVP award and the Choi Dong-won Award (the equivalent of the US Cy Young) thanks to his 17-1 record, 1.89 ERA, and 252 strikeouts in 180⅔ innings in 29 starts. Ponce is a very different pitcher today than he was half a decade ago, now reaching the upper 90s with his four-seam fastball: he averaged 93.2 mph with it in 2020-21. He has also added a kick change, the pitch that generated a lot of excitement around Clay Holmes when he started using it after signing with the New York Mets last winter. Ponce is not the first pitcher to rebuild himself abroad, with Merrill Kelly being one of the most outstanding success stories among pitchers who returned from the KBO. Many accounts suggest that the KBO is comparable in level of competition to Double-A ball, so expect an adjustment period for Ponce, as was the case for Kelly. Even so, Ponce’s heavy workload abroad and the adjustment make him one of the best pitchers to keep in the last rounds of a 23-man, 12-team mixed draft. If he looks good during spring training, he could also be on the standard ESPN radar.

Dylan Cease Signs with the Blue Jays: Cease is one of the most durable strikeout options in the majors, having made 32 or more starts and surpassed 200 strikeouts in five consecutive seasons, and there are few reasons to believe those streaks end with the Blue Jays, a team that features strong defense. The problem, of course, is that Cease isn’t always that consistent with run prevention. For example, his ERA for the 2025 Padres was 4.55, and it came with a WHIP of 1.33. His last season with the White Sox, in 2023, featured a