MLB: Who pitches better? Analysis of pitchers and their effectiveness.

alofoke
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The Art of Pitching: Maximizing the Arsenal in MLB

In modern baseball, pitching is much more than throwing the ball; it’s a game of strategy where every pitch counts. MLB pitchers refine their repertoire with scientific precision, always seeking the advantage over the batter. Pitch selection has become an art, similar to the creation of a gourmet menu. But even with all this sophistication, there are inefficiencies in how pitchers use their resources. Game theory analysis in pitch selection reveals which pitchers are optimizing their game and which could improve their performance with strategic adjustments. This analysis is based on Statcast data on the frequency of each pitch type and the effectiveness of each, using tools like FanGraphs. It seeks to identify discrepancies between a pitcher’s most effective pitches and those they use most frequently. In general, pitchers who rely on their best pitches tend to achieve better results. To evaluate this, the “Nash Score” is used, which compares the number of runs a pitcher saves with each pitch in their arsenal with the average runs saved by all their other combined pitches.

Pitchers with low Nash Scores have achieved a balance in effectiveness between their most used pitches and the rest of their repertoire, implying that any change in the pitch combination would make them less effective overall.

Analysis by Alofoke Deportes
Pitchers with high Nash Scores may be using less effective pitches too often or not taking advantage of their best pitches, suggesting the need to readjust their strategy. Here’s an analysis of the most and least balanced pitchers based on their Nash Scores, highlighting those who are maximizing their potential and those who may be underperforming on the field.
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Between Tommy Kahnle (Tigers), Jake Irvin (Nationals), Paul Sewald (Guardians), and Ronel Blanco (Astros), which pitcher is optimizing his arsenal and who needs to change things?

Pitchers with the Greatest Balance in Their Repertoire

The Washington Nationals’ right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin tops the list of the most balanced pitchers. Despite not being a star, Irvin maximizes his repertoire by primarily using three pitches: four-seam fastball, curveball, and sinker. Each of these pitches has similar effectiveness, demonstrating strategic balance. Other pitchers in the top 15 have also shown an ability to optimize their game. Garrett Crochet, of the [Boston Red Sox](https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox), combines an elite fastball with a dominant cutter, creating a very effective mix of pitches. Kutter Crawford, also of the Red Sox, follows a similar strategy. Others like Jesus Luzardo and Freddy Peralta use more velocity pitches, while Ryan Pepiot and Corbin Burnes rely on their fastballs as primary pitches. Tarik Skubal, recognized as one of the best baseball pitchers, also appears on this list, highlighting the importance of a balanced pitch selection.

Relievers: The Art of Efficiency

Relievers tend to show greater optimization in their pitches because they tend to use fewer types of pitches and the maximum intensity with which they execute them. Paul Sewald, despite an injury, has been one of the best in this aspect, with a fastball and a slider that he uses almost entirely, both with similar effectiveness. Other relievers like Colin Poche, Tanner Scott, Joe Jimenez, and Alexis Díaz also stand out for effectively combining fastballs and sliders. However, there are also pitchers who break this trend, such as Orion Kerkering, who focuses on the slider and uses the fastball as a change-of-pace pitch.
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Launchers with Room for Improvement

On the other hand, some pitchers could improve their performance with adjustments to their strategy. Ronel Blanco and Merrill Kelly, for example, have fastballs that are less effective than other pitches in their arsenal. Joe Ryan, Michael Wacha, Dylan Cease, Chris Sale, and Michael King, although they have dominant pitches, could benefit from a more balanced use of their pitches. Paul Skenes’ case is particular, since, despite being one of the most outstanding pitchers, his main fastball is less effective than other pitches in his repertoire, which suggests room to further optimize his game.

Relievers with Adjustment Potential

Among relievers, Tommy Kahnle stands out for having a changeup that is much more effective than the rest of his pitches, suggesting he could benefit from a more strategic use of his fastballs. Other pitchers like Ryan Helsley, Justin Lawrence, and John Brebbia could also improve by adjusting their pitch usage. In conclusion, although the Nash Score doesn’t capture the full complexity of pitching, it offers a valuable perspective on how pitchers utilize their resources. Some achieve great results with intelligent use of their pitches, while others could improve with strategic adjustments. Ultimately, the path to better performance could be as simple (or difficult) as making the right throw at the right time, a little more often.
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