MLB: Who are the favorites? Free agency analysis and more.

MLB Free Agent Market Heats Up: Analysis and Outlook

Concerns about the health of the Major League Baseball (MLB) free agent market for the 2025-26 seasons dissipated during the general managers’ meetings in Las Vegas. With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire and a possible lockout in 2027, teams made it clear that they will move forward without letting the uncertainty of the future affect the present. The focus is on investment and building competitive teams.

A clear example of this trend is the unexpected stance of the [Pittsburgh Pirates](mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates). Despite consistently being a team with one of the lowest payrolls, the Pirates were willing to invest a significant sum in Josh Naylor before he renewed with Seattle. In addition, they are considering other options to strengthen their team, including the possibility of giving young Konnor Griffin, considered the minor league player of the year in 2025, a chance.

The Pirates’ strategy is bold: to consider the debut of Griffin, 19, at shortstop. Griffin impressed scouts with a .333 batting average, 21 home runs, and 65 stolen bases in his first professional season. However, the decision is complex, as the last time a teenage position player debuted in the Major Leagues was Juan Soto in 2018. The uncertainty about the new basic agreement poses risks for a team like Pittsburgh. Despite this, the possibility of lining up Griffin with new hitters and an elite rotation is attractive enough to make the Pirates a team to watch closely this winter. The free agent market is shaping up to be a period of intense activity.

Batters in the Market: Stars and Aspirations

Among the hitters, two Kyles stand out: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber. Tucker, with an OPS+ of 140, is the most sought-after player, while Schwarber, after an outstanding season, generates great demand. Schwarber’s positional flexibility and his discipline at the plate make him valuable to various teams. Teams like the [Philadelphia Phillies](mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies) and the Pittsburgh Pirates are interested in his services.

Schwarber is expected to get a contract with an average annual value exceeding $30 million. On the other hand, the demand for Tucker is also high, with the [Toronto Blue Jays](mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays) as possible favorites to sign him. The [Los Angeles Dodgers](mlb/team/_/name/lad/los-angeles-dodgers) could also be interested, but with a focus on a short-term contract. Bo Bichette, at 27 years old, is another attractive name. His outstanding 2025 season, despite an injury, positions him as a valuable player. While there are doubts about his defense, his ability with the bat makes him a target for teams like the Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers. The market also features players represented by Scott Boras, such as Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso. In addition, Japan’s top two hitters, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, are also attractive options. Murakami, with great power potential, could get a nine-figure contract. Okamoto, known for his ability to hit the ball, could be a more short-term option. Other notable hitters include Eugenio Suárez, Ha-Seong Kim, Jorge Polanco, Ryan O’Hearn, and J.T. Realmuto. There are also a number of short-term options, such as Harrison Bader, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Yastrzemski, Willi Castro, Rob Refsnyder, Rhys Hoskins, Danny Jansen, Lane Thomas, Cedric Mullins, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Kepler, and Michael Conforto. The case of Luis Arráez poses a dilemma: despite his impressive batting average, his lack of power and defense could limit his options in the market.

Launchers: The Key to Success

The rotation of starters remains fundamental to a team’s success. Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Tatsuya Imai are the most sought-after pitchers. Valdez stands out for his consistency and ability to pitch many innings. Cease, with great potential, and Imai, the star of the Japanese league, are also very attractive. In addition to those mentioned, Ranger Suárez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen are also in the spotlight. Suárez, with his unorthodox style, could get a good contract. King, despite injuries, is seen as a pitcher with great potential. Gallen, after a less successful season, is looking to recover. As for short-term options, Merrill Kelly, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, and Cody Ponce are also options to consider. The MLB offseason promises to be exciting, with numerous talented players available and teams eager to reinforce their rosters.