MLB Free Agent Market Heats Up: Analysis and Outlook
Concerns about the health of the free agent market for the 2025-26 Major League Baseball (MLB) season vanished at the general managers’ meetings in Las Vegas last week. With the collective bargaining agreement set to expire and a possible lockout in 2027 that could cripple the sport, teams made it clear that they are moving forward without letting the uncertainty of the future derail the present.A clear example of this is the Pittsburgh Pirates, who surprised everyone with their willingness to invest. Traditionally with a limited budget, the Pirates were ready to spend more than double their largest free agent contract on Josh Naylor, before he signed with Seattle for five years and 92.5 million dollars. In addition, they are considering other options to reinforce their rotation, led by Paul Skenes, who had an outstanding performance in the second half of the season.
The most exciting prospect is Konnor Griffin, 19 years old, considered the minor league player of the year in 2025. The Pirates are seriously considering giving him the opportunity to win the shortstop position on the big team. Griffin impressed scouts with a .333/.415/.527 average, 21 home runs, and 65 stolen bases in his first professional season. The decision is complex, as the last time a teenage position player debuted in the Major Leagues was Juan Soto in 2018. However, the prospect of combining Griffin with a new crop of hitters and an elite rotation is attractive enough to make the Pirates a team to watch this winter. The market could accelerate after Thanksgiving, but a very active offseason is anticipated.Featured Free Agent Hitters
The two Kyles: Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber, despite sharing a name and agent, are in different categories. Tucker, with an OPS+ of 140, is the most sought-after player among free agents, with a potential contract of over 300 million dollars. Schwarber, for his part, is coming off an exceptional season, leading the National League in home runs (56) and RBIs (132). The demand for Schwarber is high, and his annual value is expected to exceed $30 million. Although his age and position are not ideal, his batting ability is undeniable. Teams like the Philadelphia Phillies, and surprisingly, the Pittsburgh Pirates, are interested in him. On the other hand, Tucker could get a contract of more than 10 years, which would limit his options. The Toronto Blue Jays are considered favorites to sign him, and the Phillies could also be a viable destination. The Los Angeles Dodgers could consider a short-term contract, while the New York Yankees and the New York Mets remain in the running.Bo Bichette: The young shortstop for the Blue Jays, Bo Bichette, is another of the most attractive names. At 27 years old, Bichette had an excellent season in 2025, batting .311/.357/.483 with 18 home runs and 94 RBIs. Although a knee injury sidelined him for much of the postseason, he returned for the World Series and had an outstanding performance. Despite some doubts about his defense, Bichette is an elite hitter. The Atlanta Braves and the Detroit Tigers also need a shortstop, and the Yankees could look for an upgrade at that position. The Mets could consider alternatives at second and third base.The Boras 3: Alex Bregman, Pete Alonso, and Cody Bellinger, represented by Scott Boras, are also prominent players on the market. Bellinger, in particular, could be an option for the Blue Jays and the Dodgers.Japanese Sluggers: Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, two of Japan’s best hitters, are also available. Murakami, with his power and potential, could get a nine-figure contract. Okamoto, known for his ability to hit the ball, could be an attractive option for teams looking for immediate production.
Other Free Agent Hitters
- Eugenio Suárez: A home run hitter at an affordable price.
- Ha-Seong Kim: A versatile infielder.
- Jorge Polanco: A standout player for the Mariners.
- Ryan O’Hearn: A first baseman who has performed well.
- J.T. Realmuto: The only available starting catcher, with a lot of interest.
The Big Question: Luis Arraez
Luis Arráez, despite being one of the most outstanding contact hitters, might not receive the offer he expects. His lack of power and defense could affect his market value.Top Free Agent Pitchers
The postseason demonstrated the importance of starting pitching. Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, and Imai Tatsuya are the most coveted pitchers. The three are expected to get big contracts, with the Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays competing for their services. Valdez is known for his consistency and ability to generate ground balls. Cease is a modern pitcher with great strikeout potential. Imai, the jewel of Japanese pitching, could get the most lucrative contract due to his age and potential.Other notable pitchers: Ranger Suárez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen.
Short-term bets for starters: Merrill Kelly, Lucas Giolito, Chris Bassitt, and Cody Ponce.
