MLB Playoffs: Who is Mr. October 2025? Shohei Ohtani and Snell in the fight.

Who is this year’s “Mr. October”? Analysis of MLB Statistics

Although the 2025 MLB playoffs begin in late September and could conclude in November, the essence of postseason baseball is always experienced in October. The key question is: Who will rise as the “Mr. October” of this year? After the divisional round, the landscape has changed, and now only three teams are competing for the World Series title. The previous leader, Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers, is no longer at the top of the list, but the Dodgers’ offense continues to dominate the rankings. This analysis is based on the “Win Probability Added” (WPA) metric, a tool that quantifies the impact of each play on the development of October games. Shohei Ohtani’s unprecedented performance in the Dodgers’ Game 4 victory against the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Championship Series and the continued dominance of L.A.’s rotation, led by Blake Snell, could resonate in baseball history. Let’s analyze the details.

Methodology

The WPA evaluates each play during a game, awarding positive credit if it increases a team’s chances of winning and negative credit otherwise. In small samples, a single play can have a big impact on the WPA. A grand slam in a 10-0 game has little effect, but the same hit in the eighth inning with the team losing 3-0 can change history. In this analysis, the batting and pitching WPA versions are combined, based on the Baseball-Reference.com system. The inclusion of both facets is especially justified by Ohtani’s performance, who inspired a more thorough monitoring of WPA results this postseason.

Top 5 Active Players

Players with the best WPAs on teams still in competition:

• Blake Snell, Dodgers | 1.203
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners | .800
• Alex Vesia, Dodgers | .708
• Andres Munoz, Mariners | .704
• Roki Sasaki, Dodgers | .686

Blake Snell, with a WPA of .622 in his masterful Game 1 against Milwaukee, leads the list. Although Ohtani’s performance was notable, Snell’s game was more intense. Snell has been impeccable in his three playoff starts and his current WPA places him among the top 30 postseason pitchers of all time. If Snell has two starts in the World Series and approaches the WPA average he has maintained so far, he could enter the pantheon of the greats. Cal Raleigh, with a crucial home run in the eighth inning, positioned himself to compete for the title of “Mr. October”. Alex Vesia and Andres Munoz, with consistent performances in close victories, have been key in the Dodgers’ winning streak. Roki Sasaki, despite a less brilliant game, has maintained a good performance.

Day’s Analysis

Shohei Ohtani was the standout player of the day, although WPA doesn’t fully capture his impact in the Dodgers’ sweep over the Brewers. His WPA of .349 is impressive, but the Dodgers’ early lead limited the potential for impact on the game. Ohtani achieved something unprecedented by combining his performance as a pitcher and hitter, including three home runs in the same game. Ohtani demonstrated exceptional ability by throwing the fastest pitches of the game and recording the most powerful hits, all in the same game. His performance not only put his team in the World Series, but also challenged expectations about what a player can achieve in a single game.

The Best in WPA History

These are the players with the highest WPAs in a single postseason season since 1903:

1. David Freese, 2011 St. Louis Cardinals | 1.908
2. David Ortiz, 2004 Red Sox | 1.892
3. Curt Schilling, 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks | 1.748
4. Alex Rodriguez, 2009 Yankees | 1.704
5. Yordan Alvarez, 2022 Houston Astros | 1.646
6. Carlos Beltran, 2013 Cardinals | 1.582
7. Bernie Williams, 1996 Yankees | 1.545
8. John Wetteland, 1996 Yankees | 1.522
9. Eric Hosmer, 2014 Kansas City Royals | 1.443
10. Mariano Rivera, 2003 Yankees | 1.420

Snell’s performance in the Championship Series puts him in the orbit of this select group. With two more starts in the World Series, he could challenge Freese for the title of “Mr. October”. As for Ohtani, here are the only examples of players who have had at least .200 WPA in both hitting and pitching in the same postseason. Ohtani still has work to do to join this list, but at least we know that, in the 2025 baseball season, no one else will be able to achieve it.

• Christy Mathewson, 1913 New York Giants (1.054 WPA | .447 batting; .607 pitching)
• Rube Foster, 1915 Red Sox (.883 WPA | .303 batting; .580 pitching)
• Babe Ruth, 1918 Red Sox (.710 WPA | .209 batting; .501 pitching)
• General Crowder, 1935 Tigers (.923 WPA | .207 batting; .716 pitching)
• Jake Arrieta, 2016 Chicago Cubs (.480 WPA | .218 batting; .262 pitching)