Wow, what a regular season finale for the 2025 MLB! Now it’s your turn, October.The 2025 MLB playoffs begin on Tuesday (1 p.m. ET on ESPN), and we’re here to get you ready for what’s shaping up to be an exciting postseason.Will Shohei Ohtani’s Los Angeles Dodgers meet Aaron Judge and the New York Yankees in a World Series rematch? Will this be the year the Seattle Mariners and Milwaukee Brewers finally make it to the World Series? Will the Philadelphia Phillies have another great run after a solid regular season? Or will the chaos that ruled September continue to reign?MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan, and David Schoenfield prepare you with the odds for each round, why each team could win it all, or go home early, and a name to watch for the 12 World Series contenders.Note: World Series odds and matchups come from Doolittle’s formula which uses power rankings as a basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James’ formula to determine how “hot” or “cold” a team is at a given time; the average is 72°.
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American League
Toronto Blue Jays
Seeded No. 1 | 94-68 | American League East Division ChampionsDivisional Series Rival: Yankees (46.7% chance of advancing) or Red Sox (51.3% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 11.4% | ESPN BET Odds: +750Equipment temperature: 91°Why they can win the World Series: The Blue Jays don’t strike out and field as cleanly as any team in the postseason. Toronto has struggled lately, yes, and the culprit is a powerless offense. But Toronto has spent much of the season with one of the best units in runs scored, as well as in wOBA, and although Bo Bichette’s return from a knee injury is questionable, the Blue Jays still have enough to overcome teams. They will need good pitching, and although there is no clear ace or a sure bullpen piece, they have a lot of arms capable of excellence. There’s a reason the Blue Jays have spent much of the season fighting for the best record in the American League. Excellence is not accidental. And not striking out in the postseason is an excellent predictor of success. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: George Springer. At 35 years old, Springer was Toronto’s best hitter this season, changing his approach to focus more on his “A” swing at all times to generate more consistent bat speed and a higher hard-hit percentage. That resulted in nearly doubling his average launch angle while keeping his strikeout rate steady anyway. Oh, and he’s been a great postseason hitter in his career, batting .268/.346/.529 with 19 home runs in 67 games and earning World Series MVP honors with the Astros in 2017. — SchoenfieldIf they go home early it will be because… the offense doesn’t wake up. The Blue Jays’ recipe for scoring runs this season focused on putting the ball in play and not striking out, while also showcasing some power. But that pop disappeared down the stretch before igniting the final weekend. Their problems correspond to Bo Bichette going to the injured list with a knee sprain. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Springer were two of the best hitters in the American League this season, but Toronto clearly missed Bichette, who has not been cleared to start running. — CastilloReady for his October close-up: At some point in these playoffs, the Blue Jays will have a narrow lead, the ninth inning will arrive, the microscope will zoom in on Jeff Hoffman, and nobody will know what to expect. Hoffman was really bad in May, July, and August, pretty good in the other months, and overall, he’s allowed too many home runs and blown too many saves in the first season of a three-year, $33 million contract. How far the Blue Jays advance in this year’s postseason will depend heavily on Hoffman’s right arm. A close-up, indeed. — GonzalezWhy you should root for them: Does three-true-outcome baseball depress you? Tune into Blue Jays baseball to satisfy all your balls-in-play needs. Toronto put the ball in play on 81.7% of their plate appearances, first in the majors and the highest percentage by an American League team since the 2017 Astros. There’s a connection here, of course: Springer played for both clubs. If that means anything, it bodes well for Toronto because Houston won the 2017 World Series. We won’t get into what came after. — DoolittleSeattle Mariners
Seeded No. 2 | 90-72 | American League West Division ChampionsDivisional Series Rival: Guardians (62.8% chance of advancing) or Tigers (50.9% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 9.7% | ESPN BET Odds: +500Equipment temperature: 88°Why they can win the World Series: They’ve had the best offense in baseball in September. Their rotation is packed with starting pitchers who, on any given night, can throw seven scoreless innings. The back end of their bullpen features two of the nastiest relievers in the game. And they have the Big Dumper. Regardless of his power this year, Cal Raleigh alone can’t carry an entire team, so it’s good to have Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor and Jorge Polanco and Dom Canzone and J.P. Crawford in the lineup as well. And as long as Bryan Woo stays healthy, the rotation with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Luis Castillo could be the best in the postseason. Finish with Matt Brash in the eighth and Andres Muñoz in the ninth, and you can see why FanGraphs has the Mariners with the best odds to win the World Series of any team in baseball. — PassanIf they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Julio Rodríguez. Wait, not Raleigh? Sure, that’s the most obvious choice, but after his historic power season, teams may pitch around Raleigh in October and force other hitters to beat them. That would open the door for J-Rod, who heated up the last two months and hit after Raleigh in the lineup. Add spectacular center field defense and he could join Springer as the only center fielder to win World Series MVP honors since… well, this is pretty shocking: Springer and Reggie Jackson in 1973 are the only center fielders to win since the award began in 1955. — SchoenfieldIf they go home early it will be because… Woo’s injury is a real problem. The All-Star, who left his start on September 19 with inflammation in his right pectoral, did not make his scheduled start on Thursday. Mariners general manager Justin Hollander told reporters that the club did not believe the setback warranted putting Woo on the injured list and that he has responded well to treatment, but Woo will enter the postseason without having pitched in a game in more than two weeks. While Seattle’s rotation is one of the deepest in baseball, Woo emerged as the ace this season with a 2.94 ERA in 30 starts. He is critical to their chances in the World Series. — CastilloReady for his October close-up: Woo didn’t debut until 2023, the year after the Mariners made their last trip to the playoffs. By 2024, he had established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the game. And in 2025, he cemented it by entering his first All-Star team, the highlight of a regular season in which he won 15 games, recorded an ERA of 2.94, compiled 186⅔ innings, and was the most consistent starter in a Mariners rotation that wasn’t found until recently. Woo came out of his last start with pectoral strain. The hope is that he will be fit to play for the playoffs. — GonzalezWhy you should root for them: Consider the first historicals… or at least the possibility of them. Raleigh’s home run counter resets to zero when the playoffs begin, and while he will continue to attract a lot of attention, that zero number looms over the Mariners franchise as a whole. Seattle remains the only franchise with zero World Series appearances. Three of the Mariners’ five playoff trips have ended in the American League Championship Series, culminating in two losses to the Yankees and one to Cleveland, possible obstacles this year as well. — DoolittleCleveland Guardians
Seeded No. 3 | 88-74 | American League Central ChampionsWild card rival: Tigres (47.4% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 1.5% | ESPN BET Odds: +2000Equipment temperature: 104°Why they can win the World Series: Well, why can’t they? Couldn’t they make the playoffs after a 64-66 start and trade for Shane Bieber at the deadline? They could. And while it’s a wild, out-of-nowhere run, its explainability isn’t the point. Sometimes, teams just get hot and win. The Guardians stole the Central from Detroit in historic fashion. During September, the offense was good, led by José Ramírez, who added to his Hall of Fame case with another master class of power and speed. However, the Guardians are here, because of their pitching. There’s no Sabathia, no Lee, no Kluber, and no Emmanuel Clase, out since the investigation into alleged links to illicit betting. And yet, the Guardians, again and again, produce pitching. And if they can maintain a 2.25 ERA during the month, it doesn’t matter what their names are. They’re the ones who win, and that’s all that matters in October. — PassanIf they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: The correct answer is probably “the bullpen”, but we have to choose an individual, so let’s go with the easy answer here and say Ramírez, even though he hasn’t hit well in his postseason career (.239, 4 home runs in 42 games). However, he has the type of offensive game that should translate well in October, with his power and one of the best contact rates in the game. If the Guardians win, it’s hard to imagine them doing it without a locked-in Ramírez. — Schoenfield
If they go home early it will be because… the offense retreats to the form prior to September. Only two Guardians finished the season with an OPS+ above the league average: perennial All-Star Ramírez and first baseman/DH Kyle Manzardo. But Cleveland’s offense was better down the stretch, ranking fourth in the American League in runs scored in September to fuel this improbable postseason run. Perhaps the momentum will continue into October. If it does, the Guardians are a dangerous ball club. — CastilloReady for their October close-up: The Guardians are a team built on pitching, a truth that has never been more obvious than during this last month. But at some point, they’ll have to hit. And it can’t just be Ramírez and Steven Kwan. Enter Manzardo, who just finished his first full season in the Major Leagues and will play an important role in the Guardians’ power production in October. Manzardo emerged last September, solidified a spot in the starting lineup, and produced in the postseason, collecting six hits in 19 at-bats. It’s critical that he provides something similar this time. — GonzalezWhy you should root for them: Everyone loves a Cinderella story, and the Guardians are wearing glass slippers this October. Their lowest point in my simulations came near the end of August: a 1.5% chance of making the playoffs. They were done, with no underlying elements suggesting a rebound was likely. Yet here they are, back in the playoffs, with another chance to break baseball’s longest active championship drought. This team was 15.5 games out in July! Readers of the Brothers Grimm know that not all fairy tales end well, but you have to see how this one ends. — DoolittleNew York YankeesSeeding No. 4 | 94-68 | American League Wild CardWild Card Rival: Red Sox (41.9% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 9.1% | ESPN BET Odds: +850Equipment temperature: 120°Why they can win the World Series: They hit home runs. And, no, that won’t be the only reason. But it’s the most compelling. The Yankees have the best home run hitter in the game today in Aaron Judge, and he’s bound to show up in one of these Octobers and unleash the full extent of his power in the postseason. The mere possibility of that makes New York dangerous. The Yankees complement that with a lineup of hitters who, even subtracting Judge’s 53, combined for 221 home runs, which would put them in seventh place in MLB. That disincentivizes pitching around them. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodón, the Yankees have one of the best starting pairs in the game, and their relief pitching is showing good signs during the last week. Ultimately, the Yankees will go as far as the long ball takes them. If they keep hitting home runs, they will be hard to stop, regardless of deficiencies elsewhere. — PassanIf they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Look, Judge’s postseason history isn’t great. It’s not even good by his regular season standards, with a career line of .205/.318/.450 and just .169/.283/.360 in his last three postseasons in 24 games. But he’s the best hitter in baseball, and he certainly owes himself a big October. It helps that, with a team that led the majors in home runs, he has more help around him than some of those other playoff lineups. — SchoenfieldIf they go home early it will be because… the relievers don’t perform according to their records. The names in the New York bullpen appear: David Bednar. Devin Williams. Luke Weaver. Camilo Doval. The four have been successful closers at the Major League level; Weaver, the only one without an All-Star nod, was the closer for the Yankees’ World Series push last year. But the Yankees’ relief corps has been mercurial since they added Bednar and Doval at the trade deadline. Bednar established himself as the closer, but Doval has been sporadic. The group’s ceiling is high. But the second half showed that their floor is surprisingly low. — Castillo
Ready for his October close-up: Ben Rice carried the Yankees in their final regular season game, collecting four hits, including the tenth-inning grand slam that sent them to victory in Baltimore. The 26-year-old has emerged as a crucial part of the lineup and will be in it often in October, whether at first base or behind the plate. This lineup looks deeper than the one the Yankees fielded in last year’s World Series run, and Rice is a key reason why. Said manager Aaron Boone: “I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order power bat.”Why you should root for them: Well, let’s be real, you’re rooting for them because you’re already a Yankees fan, but other than that, the fun actually lies in rooting against the Yankees. But it’s hard to root against Judge, and sometimes even great players have a negative postseason narrative that follows them. If the Yankees win, and it’s because Judge finally comes through in October, it’s a good, solid baseball story that, as a baseball fan, you won’t want to miss. — DoolittleBoston Red SoxSeeding No. 5 | 89-73 | American League Wild CardWild card rival: Yankees (41.9% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 4.7% | ESPN BET Odds: +1800Equipment temperature: 83°Why they can win the World Series: As much as the Red Sox have swung this season between looking like they’re ready to be fitted for rings one day and likely spending October watching games on television another, the good is good enough to get through a relatively porous American League program and take their chances against the National League. As long as Roman Anthony is out with a strained oblique, the Red Sox won’t be at their best, considering they’re 44-27 when he plays and 45-46 when he doesn’t. But with the closest thing to Tarik Skubal in the American League in Garrett Crochet and an underrated bullpen that can help win games, Boston’s path to victory narrows. The Red Sox aren’t the best team in the American League, but to dismiss them, particularly if Alex Bregman can get going, would be short-sighted. — Passan
If they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: This is a remote possibility, as the last closer to win MVP honors was Mariano Rivera in 1999, but Aroldis Chapman had one of the most unhittable relief seasons of all time and has only blown one save all season, way back in May. Given that most other playoff teams have concerns about the reliability of their late-inning relievers, Chapman’s ability to secure leads could be the difference. – SchoenfieldIf they go home early it will be because… the lineup doesn’t accumulate enough runs without Anthony. Postseason teams generally don’t rely on 21-year-old rookies to drive their offense, but Anthony is different. From July 1 to September 2, the day Anthony twisted his oblique, the Red Sox ranked sixth in the majors in runs scored and eighth in wRC+. Without him, production plummeted and the Red Sox became a .500 team. Anthony’s return doesn’t seem imminent, he hasn’t resumed baseball activities, so the Red Sox will have to figure it out without him at least to survive the wild card round. — CastilloReady for his October close-up: When Crochet first appeared in October, he was a White Sox reliever, not the ace of this Red Sox pitching staff and one of the top five pitchers in all of baseball. Crochet made his thirty-second and final regular season start on Wednesday, throwing eight scoreless innings in Toronto to put him at 18-5 with a 2.59 ERA in his second year as a starter. His last four starts saw him allow just six runs in 27 innings. With the season winding down, Crochet only seems to be getting stronger. Next up: a Game 1 start. — GonzalezWhy you should be excited: This is your chance to watch possibly baseball’s newest postseason legend be born. Yes, Crochet already has some postseason history under his belt, having pitched three scoreless innings in four relief appearances with six strikeouts while with the White Sox. But this is a completely different Crochet, a full-fledged ace who has seemingly gotten stronger as the season has gone on, despite never having had anything close to such a heavy workload. Crochet will be must-see viewing every time he takes the mound in the playoffs. — DoolittleDetroit Tigers
Seeding No. 6 | 87-75 | American League Wild CardWild Card Rival: Guardians (52.6% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 4.8% | ESPN BET Odds: +1800Team temperature: 42°Why they can win the World Series: Because once upon a time, this was the best team in the American League. It’s easy to forget after their historic collapse, but the Tigers entered May, June, July, August and, yes, September with the best record in the American League. Despite recent problems, this is a good baseball team, and even with several pitchers and infielder Colt Keith on the injured list, the Tigers have the depth, and in manager A.J. Hinch, the acumen, to do damage in October. It starts with Tarik Skubal, the best pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons and a hellish assignment for the Guardians in Game 1 of a three-game series. Win that, get the good feeling back, hope the hitting of Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Spencer Torkelson appears, find the top form of Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty and pray that the bullpen finds some strikeout elixir. More than anything, remember what it’s like to win after spending too much time without knowing the feeling. — PassanIf they win it all, the 2025 World Series MVP will be: Skubal would be the easy answer, but Stephen Strasburg is the only pitcher to win World Series MVP honors in the last 10 years and only he, Madison Bumgarner, and Cole Hamels have won the award in the last 20 postseasons. So, maybe Greene? He can run hot and cold with the bat and strikeouts are a concern, but he can also hit some important home runs. — SchoenfieldIf they go home early it will be because… the starting rotation around Skubal doesn’t live up to its weight. Skubal, the favorite for the American League Cy Young, recorded an ERA of 2.42 in four September starts. And yet, the Tigers’ rotation ERA for the month was 4.84. That helps explain the team’s almost monumental collapse, although the offense and bullpen didn’t help. Flaherty and Mize, the team’s number 2 and 3 starters, must give the Tigers some effective length to avoid an early exit. — CastilloReady for his October close-up: Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 draft, didn’t pitch for the Tigers in last year’s wild-card round and was left off their American League Division Series roster. He was marking his first season back from a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, and Mize never really felt right. This year, he made his first All-Star team and, with the help of a fairly solid September, established himself as a key member of the postseason rotation. If the Tigers are going to go from nearly missing a playoff spot to playing deep into October, other starters will need to step up beyond Skubal. It’s Mize’s turn to show he can.Why you should root for them: Want to see how bouncy a baseball team can be? Check out the plummeting Tigers, who entered the playoffs largely because they weren’t the only American League contender in a freefall at the end of the season. Detroit’s .291 winning percentage in September doesn’t bode well. In fact, if the Tigers can rebound from here to the heights of a title, it would be an unprecedented turnaround. Only 10 eventual champions have sported a last-month winning percentage below .500. The worst was the .414 (12-17) mark of the 2006 Cardinals, who beat Detroit in that year’s World Series. — DoolittleNational League
Milwaukee Brewers
Planted No. 1 | 97-65 | National League Central ChampionsDivisional Series Rival: Cubs (55.7% chance of advancing) or Padres (59.2% chance of advancing)Doolittle World Series Odds: 19.8% | ESPN BET Odds: +800Team temperature: 67°Why they can win the World Series: They have been the best baseball team for six months. In the modern game, that requires a combination of depth, player development, and fidelity to an ethic that runs through the organization expecting excellence. If the deck is stacked against you, take it off and restack it to better suit you. It’s easy to say, but how the Brewers play, disciplined and intelligent and totally committed, is an enviable brand of baseball. They are a fun team to watch because they were better than everyone, of course. But really fun because they intimidate without the home run, which is something of a novel concept in the current game. Milwaukee embraced it as it embraces any impediment. There is always the possibility that a team that consistently wins will never make it to the World Series. But the cavalry of live arms, the nine hitters with OPS+ above 111 (and two more above 100), the 164 steals, the best in the National League, the glove work that
