Since the All-Star Game, the MLB landscape has undergone significant changes. Injuries, trades, and streaks have reconfigured the standings and the races for individual awards. In this edition of Premios al Día, Alofoke Deportes analyzes the trends and favorites in the different categories.
Unlike previous editions, there is a clear agreement between the predictions of Alofoke Deportes and those of the betting markets, regarding the main candidates.
Despite these trends, the baseball season is unpredictable. A lot can change in a short time. And that’s what makes it exciting!
Most Valuable Player (MVP)
American LeagueFavorite: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (152 AXE)
Leader’s Trend: Judge has decreased his performance in terms of AXE, but still remains at the top. However, Judge has struggled with injuries and his performance has declined. His OPS since the All-Star Game is significantly lower than his slugging percentage from the previous month. The good news is that, both in statistics and in betting, Judge has not been surpassed by Raleigh, but the competition is not over.Biggest riser: Guerrero has had a big boost since the break, and is one of the few who has climbed positions in the table. Guerrero has averaged .366/.443/.688 in the second half, leading Toronto’s offense. If he maintains this pace in the playoffs, the Jays could surprise.Up next: Raleigh hasn’t taken advantage of Judge’s absence, but his power has resurfaced. His average since June is below .200, making him an “all or nothing” hitter. If Raleigh continues like this and hits 60 home runs, he could break records. If Judge doesn’t improve, Raleigh’s home runs could be decisive, especially if Seattle stays in the fight for the West Division title.National LeagueFavorite: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (152 AXE)
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (140)
3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (136)
4. Kyle Tucker, Chicago Cubs (133)
5. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks, Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies, Juan Soto, New York Mets (130)
8. Will Smith, Dodgers (129)
9. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (128)
10. Trea Turner, Phillies (127)
Leader’s Trend: If we had to choose the least likely race to change, it would be this one. Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong were very close, but Ohtani has maintained his level while Crow-Armstrong has had a slump.
Ohtani is having a historic season. He’s on pace for 57 home runs, 152 runs, and 106 RBIs. In addition, in the last month, he has improved on the mound, pitching more innings. He has the opportunity to add value in WAR. It’s a difficult combination to match.Biggest fall: Although they have gone in the wrong direction, Tucker and Crow-Armstrong have had a slump. This has affected their positions in the table and in the narrative. In terms of changes in AXE, Tucker and Crow-Armstrong have had the biggest drops.Up next: Schwarber has maintained an exceptional batting level and could reach 50 home runs, as well as being the leader in RBIs in the National League. It seems that every time the Phillies score, it’s thanks to a Schwarber home run with runners on base. He doesn’t have the value needed to catch up to Ohtani, but Schwarber could be in the top 10 in the MVP voting.
Cy Young Award
American LeagueFavorite: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (143 AXE)
8. (tie) Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays, Michael Wacha, Royals (121)
10. Max Fried, New York Yankees (120)
Leader’s Trend: The Tigers have had a slump, and although it’s not Skubal’s fault, his last month has been irregular, which could open the door for Crochet.
Skubal outdueled Zack Wheeler on August 2, but then couldn’t pitch five innings against the Angels. When Skubal has struggled, it has been after going through the lineup a couple of times, something to keep in mind. Should his replacement be faster? No. It’s Tarik Skubal.Biggest rise: Eovaldi hasn’t had a big rise in AXE, but his ERA continues to decrease, or at least it did until the Arizona offense scored five runs on him on August 11. Before that, his record was remarkable. He allowed one or zero runs in six consecutive starts. Eovaldi had an ERA of 0.90 in 14 starts.Up next: Crochet has been consistent, as if he were a number one opener for years. Before this season, he had never qualified for an ERA title. This season, he leads the American League in wins, innings, and strikeouts. His volume has been essential for the Red Sox, who needed a number one opener that offered quality and quantity. Crochet has given Boston more than it expected.National LeagueFavorite: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (140.4 AXE)
2. Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (140.2)
3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (136)
4. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds (127)
5. Nick Pivetta, San Diego Padres (126)
6. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers (124)
7. (tie) Nick Lodolo, Reds, Ranger Suarez, Phillies, Matthew Boyd, Chicago Cubs (123)
10. Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (121)
Leader’s Trend: The decision, for now, is for Skenes. Betting markets agree, but the situation is still undefined.
Skenes seems like a good bet to qualify for the ERA title and keep his mark below 2.00. His problems will be the volume of pitches. The Pirates have nothing to play for and don’t need to force Skenes, even if he participates in all his remaining starts. In recent weeks, his pitch counts have decreased. We’ll have to see how things develop at the end of the season, but the next eight pitchers on the table are playing for teams vying for a playoff spot.Biggest riser: Sanchez continues to be the standout player. He has a 2.06 ERA since the beginning of May and has pitched into the seventh and eighth innings regularly. The combination of quality and quantity makes him the National League bWAR leader. Wheeler has fallen to third place, and second in his own rotation, behind Sanchez.Up next: Abbott has become the most consistent pitcher in Cincinnati’s rotation. Terry Francona’s confidence in Abbott may have been excessive in his last start against Philadelphia, when he held the Phillies scoreless for seven innings before being outpitched in the eighth. With the Reds seeking a playoff spot, a strong finish by Abbott could impress Cy Young voters.
Rookie of the Year
American LeagueFavorite: Nick Kurtz, Athletics (123 AXE)
2. Noah Cameron, Kansas City Royals (117)
3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (115)
4. Carlos Narvaez, Boston Red Sox (113)
5. Roman Anthony, Red Sox (111)
6. Will Warren, New York Yankees (109)
7. Cam Smith, Houston Astros (108)
8. Mike Vasil, Chicago White Sox (107)
9. (tie) Colson Montgomery, White Sox, Jacob Lopez, Athletics (106)
Leader’s Trend: Kurtz has taken control of this race. Although he has slowed down a bit, his batting average is .304 and his OBP is .435. He’s a real player.Biggest rise: It took Montgomery a while to join the White Sox’s rookie class, but he has met expectations since he reached the majors. His power hitting, especially for an infielder rookie, is real. When he hit his tenth home run in 32 games on August 11, Montgomery was four behind the White Sox team leader. He debuted on July 4.Up next: Warren has been more consistent than spectacular, but the Yankees have needed that stability. After a poor performance on July 2, Warren recorded a 2.84 ERA in his next seven outings, of which the Yankees won four. Without Warren, things in the Bronx would be even worse.National LeagueFavorite: Isaac Collins, Milwaukee Brewers (121 AXE)
2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (114)
3. Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (112)
4. Chad Patrick, Brewers (110)
5. Bradley Lord, Washington Nationals (109)
6. Hyeseong Kim, Los Angeles Dodgers (107)
7. (tie) Jack Dreyer, Dodgers, Cade Horton, Chicago Cubs (105)
9. (tie) Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers, Logan Henderson, Brewers, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins (104)
Leader’s Trend: Collins has risen to the top and created a separation in a race that has been confusing all season. Collins, 28, is not a traditional prospect, but somehow, Collins is an example of why the Brewers keep winning every season. When someone graduates from the Milwaukee system, they are ready to fulfill a role and help the Brewers win. Collins is the latest example.Biggest rise: Collins has risen to the top and has seen an increase in AXE since the last analysis. He has batted .388/.473/.626, while the Brewers have had a 49-16 run.Up next: Shaw appears to be the long-term answer at third base. His defense has been solid, but now he has found his power bat. After the break, Shaw was hitting .198/.276/.280. Since then: .328/.349/.770.
Manager of the Year
American LeagueFavorite: John Schneider, Toronto Blue Jays (108.9 EARL)
2. AJ Hinch, Detroit Tigers (108.6)
3. Joe Espada, Houston Astros (107.2)
4. Dan Wilson, Seattle Mariners (106.5)
5. Ron Washington/Ray Montgomery, Los Angeles Angels (105.6)
Overview: Schneider outperformed Hinch. Wilson is the one who has advanced the most, as the Mariners have closed in on Houston and seem ready to take off.National LeagueFavorite: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers (114.5 EARL)
2. Clayton McCullough, Miami Marlins (108.9)
3. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.1)
4. Mike Shildt, San Diego Padres (105.8)
5. Rob Thomson, Philadelphia Phillies (103.5)
Overview: Murphy won last year, but has become the favorite once again. The last two-time National League winner was Bobby Cox in 2004-05.
