MLB: MVP, Cy Young, and More Races Down the Stretch

As the regular baseball season reaches its final stage, the competition for individual awards intensifies. It’s time to analyze the main races for the most prestigious awards.

Most Valuable Player

American LeagueTop Candidates: Aaron Judge, Yankees, and Cal Raleigh, Mariners.Other contenders: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals; José Ramírez, Guardians; Julio Rodríguez, Mariners; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays; Byron Buxton, Twins; Corey Seager, Rangers; Jeremy Peña, Astros; Cody Bellinger, Yankees; Maikel Garcia, Royals.Race Analysis: The competition is fiercer than the odds suggest. Judge has had a better offensive season, despite Raleigh’s home run pace and RBIs. Judge leads American League batters in win probability and championship probability. Raleigh, as a catcher, plays a valuable defensive position, and could break historical records. If Raleigh hits 60 home runs and his team makes the playoffs, how could he not win the MVP?Possible changes: If Raleigh’s performance declines and the Mariners don’t make the playoffs, Judge could capitalize and convince voters.Prediction: Raleigh could break Mantle’s record, but won’t reach 60 home runs, although he will keep his numbers strong enough to surpass Judge.

National League

Main candidates: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers, and Juan Soto, Mets.Other contenders: Trea Turner, Phillies; Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs; Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres; Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks; Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks; Francisco Lindor, Mets; Kyle Tucker, Cubs; Will Smith, Dodgers; Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks; Brice Turang, Brewers; Nico Hoerner, Cubs; Kyle Schwarber, Phillies.Career Analysis: Ohtani seems to be in control, especially with Schwarber as his main competitor according to the bets. Ohtani combines Schwarber’s power with Soto’s ability to get on base. In addition, Ohtani provides valuable innings as a pitcher.Possible changes: Ohtani seems headed for his fourth MVP award, and the third in a row. Only Barry Bonds has won more, and only Bonds has won three seasons in a row.Prediction: Ohtani will win by a wide margin.

Cy Young Award

American LeagueTop Candidates: Tarik Skubal, Tigers, and Garrett Crochet, Red Sox.Other contenders: Hunter Brown, Astros; Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers; Trevor Rogers, Orioles; Framber Valdez, Astros; Joe Ryan, Twins; Max Fried, Yankees; Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox; Michael Wacha, Royals; Drew Rasmussen, Rays.Race analysis: Skubal has the edge, although Crochet has gained momentum. Skubal has a significant advantage in key metrics. Each outing is crucial for both pitchers.Possible changes: The start is Skubal’s, but Crochet could surpass him if Skubal struggles. Both need to maintain their performance.Prediction: Skubal should maintain his pace, unless he has a slump. There doesn’t seem to be room for Crochet to catch up.

National League

Top prospects: Paul Skenes, Pirates, and Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies.Other contenders: Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Freddy Peralta, Brewers; Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers; Nick Pivetta, Padres; Ranger Suarez, Phillies; Andrew Abbott, Reds; Logan Webb, Giants; Jesus Luzardo, Phillies; Nick Lodolo, Reds.Race Analysis: Skenes has an edge, but the metrics suggest a technical tie. Both pitchers are close in WAR, and Skenes has an advantage in win probability, although his team’s poor performance affects championship probability.Possible changes: If both pitchers fail, Peralta could sneak in. The volume of innings is an important factor.Prediction: Skenes is the best pitcher in the National League, and probably the most deserving Cy Young candidate.

Rookie of the Year

American LeagueTop prospects: Nick Kurtz, Athletics, and Roman Anthony, Red Sox.Other contenders: Jacob Wilson, Athletics; Noah Cameron, Royals; Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox; Colson Montgomery, White Sox; Kyle Teel, White Sox; Luke Keaschall, Twins; Mike Vasil, White Sox; Jack Leiter, Rangers; Will Warren, Yankees; Shane Smith, White Sox.Race analysis: The race seems defined in favor of Kurtz, due to Anthony’s injury. Kurtz had a historic game with four home runs and six hits. His numbers are among the best for a rookie in league history.Possible changes: It’s difficult to imagine a scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz winning the award.Prediction: Kurtz will win unanimously.

National League

Top Candidates: Isaac Collins, Brewers, and Drake Baldwin, Braves.Other contenders: Caleb Durbin, Brewers; Cade Horton, Cubs; Jakob Marsee, Marlins; Chad Patrick, Brewers; Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates; Matt Shaw, Cubs; Jack Dreyer, Dodgers; Hurston Waldrep, Braves; Nolan McLean, Mets.Race Analysis: Horton has become the favorite according to the bets. Collins, as a representative of the best rookie class in the National League, also deserves recognition. Horton has performed outstandingly recently.Possible changes: If Horton keeps his pace, he will win. Otherwise, it could be for a brewer.Prediction: Horton will win if he maintains his pace. Otherwise, the prize could go to a Brewers player.

Manager of the Year

American LeagueTop Candidates: A.J. Hinch, Tigers, and John Schneider, Blue Jays.Other contenders: Joe Espada, Astros; Ray Montgomery/Ron Washington, Angels; Stephen Vogt, Guardians.Race analysis: The competition seems to be a toss-up between Hinch and Schneider. The season’s result will determine the winner.Possible changes: Hinch could have the advantage if the Tigers secure the best American League record.Prediction: The Hinch Tigers will get the best record, which will give them the advantage in the voting.

National League

Top Candidates: Pat Murphy, Brewers, and Clayton McCullough, Marlins.Other contenders: Oliver Marmol, Cardinals; Rob Thomson, Phillies; Craig Counsell, Cubs.Race Analysis: Murphy seems poised to win his second consecutive award. The Brewers have exceeded expectations and will likely make the playoffs with the best record. The team’s playing style, built around the contributions of several players, favors Murphy.Possible changes: The only way this changes is a Brewers collapse and an epic Cubs finish.Prediction: Murphy will win by a wide margin.