MLB Free Agent Market: What to Expect?
Each Major League Baseball (MLB) offseason brings its own dose of intrigue. This year, the concern centers on the fear of a possible lockout and a prolonged labor disruption in 2026-27, which could influence the free agent market a year earlier than expected. In the winter of 2020-21, the last offseason before the expiration of a collective bargaining agreement, spending on free agents plummeted, alarming the players. While there were factors such as a less attractive free agent class and the persistent uncertainty related to COVID-19, the players saw this as a reminder that labor issues can affect all markets at any time. The 2025-26 free agent class looks promising. It features a player who could secure a multi-million dollar contract, like Kyle Tucker, an MVP-caliber hitter in Kyle Schwarber, a versatile infielder like Alex Bregman (if he decides to opt out of his contract), several interesting starting pitchers, solid bullpen arms, and a lot of depth. However, will this class of free agents generate enough spending to surpass the $3 billion threshold that has been exceeded in each of the last four winters? The answer could depend heavily on three names little known to most baseball fans.The Japanese Revolution in MLB
The Japanese revolution in MLB doesn’t stop, and another impressive group is expected to arrive in the United States for the 2026 season. Right-handed pitcher Tatsuya Imai and two promising third basemen, Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto, aspire to play in MLB, according to sources. However, their participation depends on the willingness of their Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) teams to include them in the “posting” system, which serves as a conduit to the major leagues for those NPB players who have not yet played the nine years required for international free agency. Imai, 27, is the least known of the group and, according to scouts who have seen him pitch this year, perhaps the most intriguing. His talent contradicts his slender figure of 1.80 meters and 70 kilos. He is the hardest-throwing starter in Japan, with a fastball that hovers around 153 km/h and can reach 159 km/h. With an aggressive slider, a changeup, a splitter, a curveball, and a sinker he incorporated this season, Imai has the kind of repertoire that teams crave. Imai’s numbers this year are impressive: an ERA of 1.50 with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks, and only four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. While the dead ball in Japan certainly influences, the quality of Imai’s stuff backs up his exceptionalism. The success in the major leagues of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga, each a few inches shorter than Imai, has also helped dispel fears about shorter starters that have prevailed in baseball for decades. More than 20 major league scouts were present at his start on Tuesday, when he struck out 10 batters in a two-hit shutout. With Imai showing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would make sense for the Saitama Seibu Lions to get a significant “posting” fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance, and top-tier offerings has led front office executives to make elevated predictions. One suggested that Imai could get more than $200 million, although others doubted that figure. A second source said they believe Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another mentioned something similar to Patrick Corbin’s contract with the Washington Nationals in 2018: six years and $140 million. The lowest figure, among the dozen executives and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, given the demand for starting pitchers and the number of years Imai should get due to being the youngest on the market, seems low. The markets for Murakami and Okamoto are not so defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year, but he was not 25 years old and, therefore, would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a cap of around $10 million. Now 25 years old, he is likely to be included in the “posting” system by the Yakult Swallows and has been observed in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, the latter saw Murakami hit three home runs for the Yakult Swallows on Saturday (and was also at Imai’s gem). Limited playing time this season due to an injury, Murakami, who is 1.88 meters tall and weighs 97 kilos, has demonstrated his prodigious left-handed power. In a league where there is a home run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138, one every 9.2 at-bats. Three years ago, Murakami hit 56 home runs, surpassing Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record, which had stood since 1964. Despite all the doubts about Murakami’s game (he strikes out too much and might need to switch to first base or a position in the outfield), the power is transoceanic. If Murakami continues his late-season power surge, the ceiling of his contract is even higher than Imai’s. The last MLB player to reach free agency at age 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age matters significantly, and the prospect of getting a player’s seasons from 26 to 29 years old is tempting, particularly one of Murakami’s caliber. Okamoto, 29, has been the most consistent power hitter in the NPB since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. While a left elbow injury suffered in a collision playing first base (where, like Murakami, he could end up) kept him out for 3 and a half months, Okamoto leads the NPB with a .314 batting average with almost as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. Evaluators consider him the biggest question mark to make the jump, and he is on track to get a shorter-term contract than others, but a contract of more than $50 million is quite realistic, especially with a September that proves his elbow is healed.Other Stories to Follow
Here are other stories to follow heading into winter: 1. How much will Kyle Tucker get?Tucker’s season of ups and downs has led to predictions about his final contract everywhere. At the beginning of the season, Tucker, who will turn 29 in January, seemed like a $350-400 million player due to his incredible consistency and overall production. When Tucker is healthy, he bats, runs, and fields at an exceptional level, a rare combination of skills. If you add to that a good start (his OPS was .931 at the end of June), matching Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million contract didn’t seem unreasonable. Then came July. Tucker disappeared. He was trying to play with a broken finger, and in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, his OPS was .572, lower than his slugging percentage alone last season. The Cubs gave Tucker three games off, and the respite did him good. Even with that slump, only once in his career has he recorded a higher OPS+ than this season, and that was last year, when he missed half the season.Tucker’s best comparable might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities in their games, but because of the level at which they produce while maintaining minuscule strikeout rates. Few players are as good in any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million contract that began in his age-28 season.
So, yes, the figure will be large, probably in the range of $400 million. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately need a big outfield hitter, particularly if the next player on this list takes his talent elsewhere. The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in each class. 2. What will the teams pay for a DH?Kyle Schwarber will begin next season as a 33-year-old designated hitter, which isn’t the kind of resume that often (actually, never) leads to a free-agent bonanza. To which Phillies fans, in unison, would respond: It’s different. And they’re right. Schwarber is. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs. He’s third in MLB in weighted on-base average behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, his two compatriots at the top of almost every measurable offensive category that matters. He plays every day, literally, all 139 Phillies games, and in late and close situations this year he has an OPS of 1.244, almost 100 points higher than the next batter, Ohtani. Beyond that, Schwarber is considered the stickiest of the “glue guys”, a source of knowledge whose interpersonal acumen makes him invaluable in a clubhouse. Because of everything he brings, Schwarber is going to get paid. A lot. Teams will scoff due to age, strikeouts, positional inflexibility. But Schwarber’s total package will ultimately push some of those concerns away and trigger a bidding war. If he wants to, he can get at least four years. The salary, in that timeframe, should be at least $30 million a year. And while staying in Philadelphia is the most sensible thing, enough teams have DH gaps (looking at Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit, Cincinnati) that no amount of labor unrest will cause Schwarber’s market to dry up. 3. Will Alex Bregman stay or go?Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Red Sox on the eve of spring training, and the adjustment has been exceptional. Bregman has taken over the Red Sox clubhouse and become their undisputed leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is surpassed only by his willingness to help his teammates find the best versions of themselves. It’s rare to find a player who has such a broad knowledge base and the ability to teach it as well. Because his deal included opt-outs after each of the first two seasons, Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026. Barring injury or a catastrophic decline, he will opt out and join Tucker and Schwarber at a clear top among this winter’s free agents. Boston recognizes what it would lose if Bregman embarked elsewhere. The excellent at-bats. The glove at third base. The relationships with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell that he forged during spring training. The attitude. The focus. The feeling that in this next incarnation of the Red Sox, he belongs somewhere in the middle. However, complicating things for the Red Sox are the teams that need better production at third base and might be willing to spend for what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers. And this time it will take more than three years, even though he’s going into his age-32 season. After one of the most lucrative pillow contracts in history, Bregman is bound to get the five-year or more deal with an average annual value of $35 million or more that eluded him last winter. 4. Who else will choose to be a free agent?Here are a dozen decisions that players must make within five days after the end of the World Series and the early inclination on them:Pete Alonso, Mets, first base: This one is obvious. Alonso received $30 million to play this year and will forgo $24 million next year after his fourth career season of 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Will you choose to exit: Yes.Edwin Diaz, Mets, closer: Diaz has two years and $37 million remaining on his contract, but with an ERA of 1.87 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.5 to 1, he is heading to free agency, unless the Mets do what they did three years ago when they re-signed him before he hit the open market. Will you choose to leave: Yes, unless you sign again first.Cody Bellinger, Yankees, outfielder: At 30 years old, Bellinger will be one of the best bats on the market when he declines his $25 million player option (which includes a $5 million buyout). He is on pace to record the most home runs and RBIs since his 2019 National League MVP campaign and will seek nine figures this winter. Will you choose to exit: Yes.Robert Suarez, Padres, closer: The 34-year-old right-hander won’t get the kind of long-term contract that Díaz receives, but seeking greater riches than the two years and $16 million owed to him in his current contract makes a lot of sense. Will you choose to exit: Yes.Shane Bieber, Blue Jays, right-handed starter: Being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a free pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and decline a $16 million option, as long as he remains healthy for the rest of the season. Will you choose to exit: Yes.Jack Flaherty, Tigers, right-handed starter: While Flaherty’s 4.74 ERA is unsightly, he has struck out 169 in 142⅓ innings, enough for him to consider turning down $20 million and seeking a larger guarantee in free agency. Will you choose to exit: Yes.Trevor Story, Red Sox, shortstop: The lack of depth at shortstop in the class makes him tempting, but the combination of what is owed to Story (two years, $55 million) and his age (33 next year) is too risky to give up, even after a strong comeback season. Will he choose to leave: No, probably.Tyler O’Neill, Orioles, outfielder: In his first year with Baltimore, O’Neill has played 43 games and has recorded precisely 0.0 wins above replacement. With two years and $33 million remaining on his contract, this is an easy decision. Will you choose to exit: No.Joc Pederson, Rangers, BD: Regardless of his recent rebound, Pederson will not find $18.5 million anywhere in the free agent market. Will you choose to exit: No.Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, outfielder: Even before tearing his ACL on Monday, Gurriel wasn’t declining his $18 million player option. Will you choose to exit: No.Ha-Seong Kim, Braves, shortstop: The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and, in the process, may have solved their shortstop problem in the short term. As good as Kim can be when healthy, he wasn’t this year, and picking up a $16 million player option before hitting free agency again is the most sensible thing to do. Will you choose to exit: No.Frankie Montas, Mets, right-handed starting pitcher: Montas will miss the rest of this year, and perhaps all of next year, after tearing his UCL. He will earn $17 million in rehabilitation. Will you choose to exit: No.A.J. Minter, Mets, left-handed reliever: Minter pitched 11 innings before a side injury ended his season. And as good as those 11 innings were, they weren’t enough to turn down $11 million for next season. Will you choose to exit: No. 5. What about players with club options?Teams love club options. And this list shows why. Most of the time, the options, especially for the best players, ended up being exercised.Will probably be picked up by the team:Shota Imanaga, Cubs, three years, $57 million Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, $20 million Chris Sale, Braves, $18 million Salvador Pérez, Royals, $13.5 million Brandon Lowe, Rays, $11.5 million Max Muncy, Dodgers, $10 million Jose Alvarado, Phillies, $9 million Freddy Peralta, Brewers, $8 million Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million Pete Fairbanks, Rays, $7 million Pierce Johnson, Bravos, $7 million Ramon Laureano, Padres, $6.5 million Andrew Muñoz, Mariners, $6 million Tyler Kinley, Braves, $5 million Tim Hill, Yankees, $3 millionAt the limit:Colin Rea, Cubs, $6 million Brent Suter, Reds, $3 millionThey are unlikely to be picked up:Andrew Kittredge, Cubs, $9 million Scott Barlow, Reds, $6.5 million John Means, Guardians, $6 million Kyle Hart, Padres, $5 million Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees, $5 million Tom Murphy, Giants, $4 million Jose Urquidy, Tigres, $4 million 6. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?It starts with Framber Valdez, who, since joining Houston’s full-time rotation in 2020, holds the following positions among the 61 pitchers who averaged at least 100 innings per season:
Victories: 1st Rolling rate: 1st Home run rate: 2ndEntries launched: 5th
Effectiveness: 8th FIP: 10th The incident on Tuesday with catcher César Salazar, in which Valdez hit the rookie in the chest with a 150 km/h sinker in what both later attributed to a lack of communication in the called pitch, did not go unnoticed by the front offices. Multiple officials noted that when pitchers and catchers cross paths, the pitcher typically looks at the catcher and expresses concern. While Salazar looked towards the mound, wondering what had happened, Valdez had his back turned. It’s also a single data point, and while such an event may make its way into the minds of the front offices, Valdez’s stuff is so good, his numbers so consistent (his highest full-season ERA is 3.45, his lowest 2.82) and his playoff resume so long, even at 32 he’ll find multiple suitors willing to offer nine figures. The other starting pitcher options include:Dylan Cease, Padres, right-handed: The stuff is still elite, and front offices adore him despite a 4.71 ERA. He’ll be 30 entering next season and is likely to be slapped with a qualifying offer, making him a candidate for a short-term deal with multiple opt-outs unless a team falls in love and hands him a bag.Michael King, Padres, right: After a season plagued by injuries, all it would take is a handful of good starts in September for King to remind teams that he was the best-performing pitcher in the group over the last two years when he was healthy.Ranger Suárez, Padres, left-handed: Speed aside, Suárez is good at everything. He throws six pitches, has lowered his walk rate to a career-low, strikes out batters, is on pace to reach a career-high in innings, and, at 30 years old, in a market with a shortage of left-handers, is poised to cash in.Merrill Kelly, Rangers, right-handed: He’s not overpowering, but Kelly’s game is pretty. The combination of pitches, the command, everything has given him the opportunity, at 37 in October, to cash in on a multi-year deal this winter. Bonus: It’s without the pesky qualifying offer because he was traded mid-season.Zac Gallen, D-backs, right-handed: He’s been better lately, maybe good enough to be tagged with a qualifying offer. Could he accept it and then hit the free agent market at age 31 after 2026? Or is this one of the many cases where the fear of a work stoppage drives a free agent to seek something long-term now?Lucas Giolito, Red Sox, right-handed: Giolito has a $14 million club option that will undoubtedly be exercised, but with 14⅔ more innings, it becomes a $19 million mutual option, which Giolito will decline in favor of the multi-year contract he has more than earned. 7. How good are relief pitchers?Beyond Díaz and Suárez, Boston closer Aroldis Chapman appeared poised for a multi-year deal before agreeing to a one-year, $13 million contract with an option for 2027 with the Red Sox over the weekend. Although he took the top-performing reliever of 2025 off the market, many others remain. Among those available:Ryan Helsley, Mets, right-handed: In a month with the Mets, he has erased his entire WAR total from the previous four. Helsley’s stuff will get him a good deal (he’ll get several years at eight figures for), but not as good as he would have liked.Devin Williams, Yankees, right-handed: After entering this season prepared to threaten Diaz’s record deal, Williams has struggled with the Yankees and is looking for a one-year deal to compensate. In his favor: a 2.85 FIP that suggests better things will come.Luke Weaver, Yankees, right-handed: He’s a closer for half the baseball teams. And he’s going to get paid as such this winter. Weaver just needs to keep his home run rate down.Kyle Finnegan, Tigers, right-handed: Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Finnegan hasn’t allowed a run in 14⅔ innings, has struck out 19, and has only allowed three hits and three walks. He’s setting himself up for a nice payday and hopes the groin issue that kept him out of Wednesday’s game isn’t serious.Drew Pomeranz, Cubs Left-hander: Pitching in the big leagues for the first time in four years, Pomeranz allowed only two earned runs for the Chicago Cubs in his first 25⅔ innings. Since the All-Star break, he has given up nine in 13⅔. Some regression was expected, but Pomeranz’s fortune in the offseason will depend on his performance in September and October.Brad Keller, Cubs, Right: Another Cubs reclamation project, Keller, a long-time starter, had the best season of his career out of the bullpen. The best part: At 30, he’s one of the youngest relievers available.Tyler Rogers, Mets, right-handed: The sidearm pitcher entered this season with an ERA of 2.93 and has performed more than a full run better this season with the Giants and Mets. He’s probably not a closer, but he’s exactly the type of pitcher who thrives on facing the middle of the order. Hitters numbers 3, 4, and 5 are batting .213 with 17 strikeouts, one walk, and four extra-base hits against Rogers this year.Taylor Rogers, Cubs, Left-handed: The veteran closer, and twin brother of Tyler, is having a season that makes no sense. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 34 to 19 in Cincinnati, Taylor managed to record an ERA of 2.45 in 40 games. For the Cubs since the deadline, he has struck out 16, walked two, and finished with an ERA of 6.75.Raisel Iglesias, Braves, right-handed: The 35-year-old player has salvaged his season with a strong second half after the home run ball cut him down too often in the first half. Iglesias has allowed just one home run in his last 21 innings after giving up six in his first 20⅔.Kirby Yates, Dodgers, right-handed: The Dodgers nearly doubled Yates’ highest career salary in a single season to pair him with Tanner Scott as a two-headed late-inning duo. He’s been as terrifying as a puppy. And yet, teams will happily accept Yates and his 46 strikeouts in 35⅓ innings.
