MLB: Hot Market 2025-26, How Much Are Tucker and Schwarber Worth?

The MLB Free Agent Market: What to Expect Next Season?

Each Major League Baseball (MLB) offseason brings with it a series of questions and expectations. This year, the uncertainty centers on the free agent market and the possibility that negotiations will be affected by the fear of a lockout and a possible prolonged labor disruption in 2026-27. In the 2020-21 offseason, which preceded the expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, spending on free agents decreased dramatically, causing alarm among players. While there were factors such as a less attractive player class and concerns related to COVID-19, players saw this as a reminder of how labor issues can influence all markets at any time. The class of players available for the 2025-26 season looks promising. It features figures like Kyle Tucker, a high-caliber hitter, Kyle Schwarber, a player with MVP potential, and Alex Bregman (if he decides to exercise his opt-out), as well as several interesting starting pitchers, solid relief arms, and a lot of depth. However, the key question is whether this group of players will be able to surpass the $3 billion spending threshold, a figure that has been exceeded in each of the last four offseasons. The answer could largely depend on three names that are not well known to most baseball fans.

The Japanese Revolution in MLB

The presence of Japanese players in MLB continues to grow, and a new group of talents is expected to arrive in the United States for the 2026 season. Right-handed pitcher Tatsuya Imai and third basemen Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto hope to play in MLB, although their participation will depend on the willingness of their Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) teams to include them in the “posting” system, which serves as a gateway to the Major Leagues for those NPB players who have not yet played the nine years required for international free agency. Imai, 27, is the least known of the group, but according to scouts who have seen him pitch this year, he could be the most intriguing. His talent is notable despite his light physique of 5 feet 11 inches and 154 pounds. He is the fastest starter in Japan, with a fastball that hovers around 95 mph and reaches 99 mph. With an aggressive slider, a changeup, a splitter, a curveball, and a sinker he learned this season, Imai has the combination of pitches that teams are looking for. Imai’s stats this year are impressive: an ERA of 1.50 with 159 strikeouts, 37 walks, and only four home runs allowed in 143⅔ innings pitched. Although the dead ball in Japan influences, the quality of Imai’s pitches supports his outstanding performance. The success in Major League Baseball of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga, both shorter than Imai, has also helped dispel fears about shorter starting pitchers that have existed in baseball for decades. More than 20 Major League scouts were present at his start on Tuesday, where he struck out 10 batters in a no-hit game. With Imai showing excellent control for the first time in his career, it would be logical for the Saitama Seibu Lions to get a significant “posting” fee by allowing him to come to the majors now. Imai won’t get the $325 million the Dodgers gave Yamamoto, but the combination of his age, performance, and top-level pitches has led executives to predict high figures. One source suggested that Imai could get more than $200 million, although others doubted that figure. A second source said he believes Imai will receive a $150 million contract. Another mentioned something similar to Patrick Corbin’s 2018 contract with the Washington Nationals: six years and $140 million. The lowest figure, among the dozen officials and scouts surveyed, was $80 million, which, given the demand for starting pitchers and the number of years Imai should get due to being the youngest on the market, seems low. The markets for Murakami and Okamoto aren’t as defined. Murakami wanted to come to MLB last year, but he wasn’t 25 and, therefore, would have been subject to signing as an international amateur free agent, with a limit of around $10 million. Now, at 25, he’s likely to be included in the “posting” system by the Yakult Swallows and has been observed in person this season by New York Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns and San Diego Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who saw Murakami hit three home runs for the Swallows on Saturday (and then was also at Imai’s outstanding performance). In limited playing time this season due to an injury, Murakami, 6-foot-2 and 213 pounds, has demonstrated his prodigious power with his left hand. In a league where there is a home run every 60 plate appearances, Murakami has hit 15 in 138, one every 9.2 at-bats. Three years ago, Murakami hit 56 home runs, surpassing Sadaharu Oh’s single-season home run record, which had stood since 1964. Despite doubts about Murakami’s game, such as his many strikeouts and the possible need to switch to first base or a position in the outfield, his power is undeniable. If Murakami continues his late-season power surge, the value of his contract could be even greater than Imai’s. The last MLB player to reach free agency at age 25 was Alex Rodriguez. Age is an important factor, and the possibility of having any player in their 26-to-29-year-old seasons is tempting, especially one of Murakami’s caliber. Okamoto, 29, has been the most consistent power hitter in the NPB since joining the Yomiuri Giants full-time in 2018. Although a left elbow injury suffered in a collision playing first base, where, like Murakami, he could end up playing, kept him out for 3 and a half months, Okamoto leads the NPB with a .314 batting average with almost as many walks (21) as strikeouts (23) and 11 home runs in 201 plate appearances. Evaluators consider him the biggest unknown to make the jump, and he is on track to get a shorter-term contract than others, but a contract of more than $50 million is quite realistic, especially with a September that proves his elbow has recovered.

Other Stories to Follow

• How much will Kyle Tucker get?

Tucker’s season of ups and downs has caused predictions about his final contract to vary greatly. At the beginning of the season, Tucker, who will turn 29 in January, seemed like a $350-400 million player due to his incredible consistency and overall production. When Tucker is healthy, he bats, runs, and fields at an exceptional level, a rare combination of skills. Adding a good start (his OPS was .931 at the end of June), matching Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million contract didn’t seem unreasonable. Then came July. Tucker disappeared. He was trying to play with a broken finger, and in his first 26 games after the All-Star break, his OPS was .572, lower than his slugging percentage alone last season. The Cubs gave Tucker three games off, and the respite did him good. Even with that bad stretch, only once in his career has he posted a higher OPS+ than this season, and that was last year, when he missed half the season. The best comparison for Tucker might be Mookie Betts, not because of the similarities in their games, but because of the level at which they produce while maintaining minimal strikeout rates. Few players are as good in any of the three facets of the game as Tucker, let alone all three. Betts is the most obvious, and he signed a 12-year, $365 million contract that began in his age-28 season. So, yes, the figure is going to be big, probably in the range of $400 million. The Philadelphia Phillies could desperately need a big hitter in the outfield, particularly if the next player on this list takes his talent elsewhere. The San Francisco Giants need a complement to Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. Others, including the Cubs, will be in the mix. The market will find Tucker, as it eventually does with the best players in each class.

• What will the teams pay for a designated hitter?

Kyle Schwarber will begin next season as a 33-year-old designated hitter, which isn’t the kind of resume that often, actually, ever, leads to a free agent bonanza. To which Phillies fans, in unison, would respond: It’s different. And they’re right. Schwarber is. He leads the National League in home runs and RBIs. He’s third in MLB in weighted on-base average behind Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, his two compatriots at the top of almost every measurable offensive category that matters. He plays every day, literally, all 139 Phillies games, and in late and close situations this year he has an OPS of 1.244, almost 100 points higher than the next best hitter, Ohtani. Beyond that, Schwarber is considered the stickiest type of glue guy, a font of knowledge whose interpersonal acumen makes him invaluable in a clubhouse. Due to everything he brings, Schwarber is going to get paid. Like, a big payday. Teams will scoff at the age, the strikeouts, the positional inflexibility. But Schwarber’s total package will ultimately pull some of them away from those concerns and trigger a bidding war. If he wants to, he can get at least four years. The salary, in that timeframe, should be at least $30 million a year. And while staying in Philadelphia makes the most sense, enough teams have holes at DH, eyeing them, Texas, San Diego, Atlanta, Houston, Detroit, and Cincinnati, that no amount of labor agitation will cause Schwarber’s market to dry up.

• Will Alex Bregman stay or go?

Bregman signed a three-year, $120 million contract with the Boston Red Sox on the eve of spring training, and the adjustment has been exceptional. Bregman has taken over the Red Sox clubhouse and become their undisputed leader: a baseball rat whose wisdom is surpassed only by his willingness to help his teammates find the best versions of themselves. It’s rare to find a player who has such a broad knowledge base and the ability to teach it as well.

Because his deal included opt-out options after each of the first two seasons, Bregman could be playing elsewhere in 2026. Barring injury or a catastrophic slump, he will opt out and join Tucker and Schwarber in a clear top tier among free agents this winter. Boston recognizes what it would lose if Bregman embarked elsewhere. The excellent at-bats. The glove at third base. The relationships with Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer, and Kristian Campbell that he forged during spring training. The attitude. The focus. The feeling that in this next incarnation of the Red Sox, he belongs somewhere in the middle. However, what complicates matters for the Red Sox are the teams that need better production at third base and might be willing to spend on what Bregman provides. The Phillies. The Yankees. The Tigers. And this time it will take more than three years, although he will turn 32. After one of the most lucrative pillow contracts in history, Bregman is destined to get the five-year or more deal with an average annual value of $35 million or more that eluded him last winter.

• Who else will choose to be a free agent?

Here are a dozen decisions players must make within five days after the end of the World Series and the early inclination on them: Pete Alonso, Mets, first base: This one is obvious. Alonso received $30 million to play this year and will forgo $24 million next year after his fourth career season of 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes. Edwin Díaz, Mets, closer: Díaz has two years and $37 million remaining on his contract, but with an ERA of 1.87 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.5 to 1, he is heading to free agency, unless the Mets do what they did three years ago when they re-signed him before he hit the open market. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes, unless you sign again first. Cody Bellinger, Yankees, outfielder: At 30 years old, Bellinger will be one of the best bats on the market when he declines his $25 million player option (which includes a $5 million buyout). He is on pace to record the most home runs and RBIs since his 2019 National League MVP campaign and will seek nine figures this winter. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes. Robert Suárez, Padres, closer: The 34-year-old right-hander won’t get the kind of long-term contract that Díaz receives, but seeking greater riches than the two years and $16 million he’s due in his current contract makes a lot of sense. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes. Shane Bieber, Blue Jays, right-handed starter: Being traded to Toronto allowed Bieber a free pass from the qualifying offer, which is enough to take his $4 million buyout and decline a $16 million option, as long as he stays healthy for the rest of the season. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes. Jack Flaherty, Tigers, right-handed starter: While Flaherty’s 4.74 ERA is ugly, he has struck out 169 in 142⅔ innings, enough for him to consider rejecting $20 million and seek a greater guarantee in free agency. Will you exercise your exit option? Yes. Trevor Story, Red Sox, shortstop: The lack of shortstop depth in the class makes him tempting, but the combination of what is owed to Story (two years, $55 million) and his age (33 next year) is too risky to give up, even after a strong comeback season. Will you exercise your exit option? No, probably not. Tyler O’Neill, Orioles, outfielder: In his first year with Baltimore, O’Neill has played 43 games and has recorded precisely 0.0 wins above replacement. With two years and $33 million remaining on his contract, this is an easy decision. Will you exercise your exit option? No. Joc Pederson, Rangers, BD: Regardless of his recent surge, Pederson will not find $18.5 million anywhere in the free agent market. Will you exercise your exit option? No. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, outfielder: Even before tearing an ACL on Monday, Gurriel was not declining his $18 million player option. Will you exercise your exit option? No. Ha-Seong Kim, Braves, shortstop: The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from the Rays earlier this week and, in the process, may have solved their shortstop problem in the short term. As good as Kim can be when healthy, he wasn’t this year, and picking up a $16 million player option before becoming a free agent again is the sensible thing to do. Will you exercise your exit option? No. Frankie Montas, Mets, right-handed starting pitcher: Montas will miss the rest of this year, and perhaps all of next year, after tearing his ulnar collateral ligament. He will earn $17 million in rehabilitation. Will you exercise your exit option? No. A.J. Minter, Mets, left-handed reliever: Minter pitched 11 innings before a back injury ended his season. And as good as those 11 innings were, they weren’t good enough to turn down $11 million for next season. Will you exercise your exit option? No.

• What about players with club options?

Teams love club options. And this list shows why. Most of the time, the options, especially for top players, ended up being exercised. They will probably be taken by the team:

• Shota Imanaga, Cubs, three years, $57 million
• Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, $20 million
• Chris Sale, Braves, $18 million
• Salvador Pérez, Royals, $13.5 million
• Brandon Lowe, Rays, $11.5 million
• Max Muncy, Dodgers, $10 million
• Jose Alvarado, Phillies, $9 million
• Freddy Peralta, Brewers, $8 million
• Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million
• Pete Fairbanks, Rays, $7 million
• Pierce Johnson, Braves, $7 million
• Ramon Laureano, Padres, $6.5 million
• Andrew Muñoz, Mariners, $6 million
• Tyler Kinley, Braves, $5 million
• Tim Hill, Yankees, $3 million

In the limit:

• Colin Rea, Cubs, $6 million
• Brent Suter, Reds, $3 million

It is unlikely that they will be collected:

• Andrew Kittredge, Cubs, $9 million
• Scott Barlow, Reds, $6.5 million
• John Means, Guardians, $6 million
• Kyle Hart, Padres, $5 million
• Jonathan Loaisiga, Yankees, $5 million
• Tom Murphy, Giants, $4 million
• Jose Urquidy, Tigers, $4 million

• Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?

It starts with Framber Valdez, who, since joining Houston’s full-time rotation in 2020, holds the following ranks among the 61 pitchers who averaged at least 100 innings per season:

• Wins: 1st
• Ground ball rate: 1st
• Home run rate: 2nd
• Innings pitched: 5th
• ERA: 8th
• FIP: 10th

Tuesday’s incident with catcher César Salazar, in which Valdez hit the rookie in the chest with a 93 mph sinker in what both later blamed on a lack of communication of the called pitch, did not go unnoticed by the offices. Multiple officials noted that when pitchers and catchers cross paths, the pitcher normally looks at the catcher and expresses concern. When Salazar looked toward the mound, wondering what had happened, Valdez had his back turned.

It’s also a data point, and while such an event can get into the minds of the offices, Valdez’s releases are so good, his numbers so consistent, his highest effectiveness in a full season is 3.45, the lowest is 2.82, and his postseason resume is so long, even at 32 he will find multiple suitors willing to offer nine figures. The other starting pitcher options include: Dylan Cease, Padres, right-handed pitcher: The pitches are still elite, and the front offices adore him despite a 4.71 ERA. He will be 30 entering next season and is likely to be affected by a qualifying offer, making him a candidate for a short-term deal with multiple opt-out options unless a team falls in love and hands him a bag. Michael King, Padres, right-handed: After a season plagued by injuries, all it would take is a handful of good starts in September for King to remind teams that he was the best-performing pitcher in the group over the last two years when he was healthy. Ranger Suárez, Phillies, left-handed: Except for velocity, Suárez is good at everything. He throws six pitches, has lowered his walk rate to a career-low, strikes out batters, is on pace to reach a career-high in innings, and, at 30 years old, in a market with a shortage of left-handers, is poised to cash in. Merrill Kelly, Rangers, right-handed: He’s not overpowering, but Kelly’s game is pretty. The combination of pitches, the command, it’s all given him the opportunity, at 37 in October, to cash in on a multi-year contract this winter. Bonus: it’s without the pesky qualifying offer because he was traded mid-season. Zac Gallen, D-backs, right-handed: He’s been better lately, perhaps good enough to be tagged with a qualifying offer. Could he accept it and then enter the free agent market at age 31 after 2026? Or is this one of the many cases where the fear of a work stoppage drives a free agent to seek something longer-term now? Lucas Giolito, Red Sox, right-handed: Giolito has a $14 million club option that will undoubtedly be exercised, but with 14¼ more innings, it becomes a $19 million mutual option, which Giolito will decline in favor of the multi-year contract he has more than earned.

• How good are the relief pitchers?

Beyond Díaz and Suárez, Boston closer Aroldis Chapman appeared poised for a multi-year deal before agreeing to a one-year, $13 million contract with an option for 2027 with the Red Sox over the weekend. Although he took the top-performing reliever of 2025 off the market, many others remain. Among those available: Ryan Helsley, Mets, right-handed: In a month with the Mets, he has erased his entire WAR total from the previous four. Helsley’s pitches will get him a good deal, he will get several years with eight-figure numbers, but not as good as he would have liked. Devin Williams, Yankees, right-handed: After entering this season prepared to threaten Diaz’s record deal, Williams has struggled with the Yankees and is looking for a one-year deal. In his favor: a 2.85 FIP that suggests better things are coming. Luke Weaver, Yankees, right-handed: He’s a closer for half the baseball teams. And he’s going to get paid as such this winter. Weaver just needs to keep his home run rate down. Kyle Finnegan, Tigers, right-handed: Since joining Detroit at the deadline, Finnegan hasn’t allowed a run in 14⅔ innings, has struck out 19, and has allowed only three hits and three walks. He’s setting himself up for a nice payday and hopes the groin issue that kept him out of Wednesday’s game isn’t serious. Drew Pomeranz, Cubs lefty: Pitching in the big leagues for the first time in four years, Pomeranz allowed just two earned runs for the Chicago Cubs in his first 25⅔ innings. Since the All-Star break, he has given up nine in 13⅔. Some regression was expected, but Pomeranz’s fortune in the offseason will depend on his performance in September and October. Brad Keller, Cubs, right-handed: Another reclamation project for the Cubs, Keller, a long-time starter, had the best season of his career out of the bullpen. The best part: At 30 years old, he’s one of the youngest relievers available. Tyler Rogers, Mets, right-handed: The side-armer entered this season with a 2.93 ERA and has done more than a full run better this season with the Giants and Mets. He’s probably not a closer, but he’s exactly the type of pitcher who thrives against the middle of the order. Hitters 3, 4, and 5 are hitting .213 with 17 strikeouts, one walk, and four extra-base hits against Rogers this year. Taylor Rogers, Cubs, left-handed: The veteran closer, and twin brother of Tyler, is having a season that makes no sense. With a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 34 to 19 in Cincinnati, Taylor managed to record an ERA of 2.45 in 40 games. For the Cubs since the deadline, he has struck out 16, walked two, and finished with an ERA of 6.75. Raisel Iglesias, Braves, right-handed: The 35-year-old player has salvaged his season with a good second half after the home run cut him down too often in the first half. Iglesias has allowed only one home run in his last 21 innings after giving up six in his first 20⅓. Kirby Yates, Dodgers, right-handed: The Dodgers nearly doubled Yates’ highest single-season salary of his career to pair him with Tanner Scott as a two-headed duo at the end of the inning. He’s been as scary as a puppy. And yet, teams will happily take Yates and his 46 strikeouts in 35⅓ innings. Michael Kopech, Dodgers, right-handed: Kopech could earn a lot of money with a good September and October. And considering the state of the Dodgers’ bullpen, there is ample opportunity for him to capture high-pressure innings. Kenley Jansen, Angels, right-handed: The old reliable, Jansen, is on his way to obtaining his first ERA below 3.00 since 2021. And although for the first time in his 16-year career he will fall short of double-digit strikeouts per nine innings, Jansen’s effectiveness remains.

Hoby Milner, Rangers, left-handed: Milner, 34 years old, hovers around 87 mph with his sinker, and is almost unhittable. As much as his ERAs in 2023 (1.82) and 2024 (4.73) were atypical, Milner is accumulating his fourth consecutive year of a FIP of 3.16 or better. The only others to do it? Milner’s teammate in Texas, Chris Martin, Williams, and Emmanuel Clase, whose career status is uncertain amid an MLB betting investigation.

Gregory Soto