The 2025 MLB draft is just around the corner, with the first round starting on July 13th. The difficulty of this process lies in projecting young prospects, transforming 18-year-old talents into established Major League players by the age of 25. We analyzed the last 10 drafts, from 2015 to 2024, and re-evaluated the top 10 picks. Leaving aside the two most recent drafts, whose players are still in the early stages of evaluation, only 16 of 80 top 10 picks made the re-evaluated top 10. This situation explains why teams like the Colorado Rockies, the Pittsburgh Pirates, and the Miami Marlins have struggled to move up in the standings, due to poor results in the draft. Let’s review the drafts from the last 10 years to see what the re-evaluations look like.
Draft 2015
Alex Bregman is the number 1 selection in our 2015 redraft.
- 1. Arizona Diamondbacks
New selection: Alex Bregman | Original selection: Dansby Swanson
Where the new selection was originally selected: 2. Houston Astros - 2. Houston Astros
New selection: Kyle Tucker | Original selection: Alex Bregman
Where the new selection was originally selected: 53. Colorado Rockies - 3. Colorado Rockies
New selection: Austin Riley | Original selection: Brendan Rodgers
Where the new selection was originally selected: 414. Texas Rangers - 4. Texas Rangers
New selection: Dansby Swanson | Original selection: Dillon Tate
Where the new selection was originally selected: 15. Houston Astros - 5. Houston Astros
New selection: Ian Happ | Original selection: Kyle Tucker
Where the new selection was originally selected: 96. Minnesota Twins - 6. Minnesota Twins
New selection: Walker Buehler | Original selection: Tyler Jay
Where the new selection was originally selected: 247. Boston Red Sox - 7. Boston Red Sox
New selection: Andrew Benintendi | Original selection: Andrew Benintendi - 8. Chicago White Sox
New selection: Brandon Lowe | Original selection: Carson Fulmer
Where the new selection was originally selected: 879. Chicago Cubs - 9. Chicago Cubs
New selection: Cedric Mullins | Original selection: Ian Happ
Where the new selection was originally selected: 403. Philadelphia Phillies - 10. Philadelphia Phillies
New selection: Tyler Stephenson | Original selection: Cornelius Randolph
Where the new selection was originally selected: 11
Best draft: Houston Astros. They selected Bregman and Tucker with the second and fifth picks, as well as eight others who made it to the majors, including Myles Straw and Patrick Sandoval. While Bregman currently has approximately 17 more career WAR than Tucker, given that Tucker is three years younger, he could end up being the best player from this draft.
Honorable Mention: St. Louis Cardinals, who selected Bader and Jordan Hicks in the third round and then DeJong and Helsley in rounds 4 and 5.Biggest bust: Cornelius Randolph. Considered the best high school hitter in the draft, Randolph ended up being the second high school player selected after Tucker in a first round focused on college. Randolph didn’t hit for average or power and never made it past Double-A, although he still plays professionally in the Mexican League.
Overview: This was not considered a strong draft at the time, and that has held up a decade later, with a dearth of stars and even some of the better players like Swanson, who rely heavily on defense for their value. The Astros had the second pick for not signing Brady Aiken the previous year, and Bregman was in the Major Leagues for them a year later. Tucker was chosen with their regular pick at number 5, and then they used another first-round pick to select Daz Cameron, who became one of the key players used to acquire Justin Verlander in 2017. The strangest story of this draft came courtesy of the short-lived Tony La Russa/Dave Stewart regime in Arizona. After selecting Swanson with the first pick, the Diamondbacks traded him and a good outfielder, Ender Inciarte (after a 5.0 WAR season), to Atlanta for Shelby Miller in December 2015.Draft 2016
Will Smith is the number 1 selection in our 2016 redraft.
- 1. Philadelphia Phillies
New selection: Will Smith | Original selection: Mickey Moniak
Where the new selection was originally selected: 2 - 2. Cincinnati Reds
New selection: Corbin Burnes | Original selection: Nick Senzel
Where the new selection was originally selected: 11 - 3. Atlanta Braves
New selection: Pete Alonso | Original selection: Ian Anderson
Where the new selection was originally selected: 64 - 4. Colorado Rockies
New selection: Bo Bichette | Original selection: Riley Pint
Where the new selection was originally selected: 66 - 5. Milwaukee Brewers
New selection: Zac Gallen | Original selection: Corey Ray
Where the new selection was originally selected: 106 - 6. Oakland Athletics
New selection: Shane Bieber | Original selection: A.J. Puk
Where the new selection was originally selected: 122 - 7. Miami Marlins
New selection: Tommy Edman | Original selection: Braxton Garrett
Where the new selection was originally selected: 196 - 8. San Diego Padres
New selection: Bryan Reynolds | Original selection: Cal Quantrill
Where the new selection was originally selected: 59 - 9. Detroit Tigers
New selection: Sean Murphy | Original selection: Matt Manning
Where the new selection was originally selected: 83 - 10. Chicago White Sox
New selection: Michael King | Original selection: Zack Collins
Where the new selection was originally selected: 353
Biggest bust: Riley Pint. A right-handed pitcher from a Kansas high school, Pint regularly reached 100 mph, hitting 102, and was considered perhaps the fastest high school pitcher of all time. The Rockies took him with the fourth pick, and some considered him to have the highest ceiling in the draft. Pint struggled to throw strikes, and although he temporarily retired in 2021, he at least managed to briefly reach the majors with the Rockies in 2023-24.
Overview: In a draft that lacked a clear No. 1 selection, the Phillies opted for California high school outfielder Moniak, considered the best pure hitter in the draft. He has made more than 1,000 plate appearances in the majors, but has never mastered the strike zone and has a career on-base percentage below .300.
However, it’s not the only first-round pick that didn’t go far. In fact, the top 30 picks have combined for only one All-Star appearance: Ragans, the number 30 pick, achieved it last year with the Royals. But that doesn’t mean there wasn’t talent available. The 10 players we redrafted above have combined for 18 All-Star appearances and two Cy Young awards, from Burnes and Bieber. Both were fourth-round picks, Burnes from Saint Mary’s College and Bieber from UC Santa Barbara. Burnes just underwent Tommy John surgery, though, while Bieber is recovering from his TJ surgery last year, so their career values could now be more limited.Draft 2017
Hunter Greene is the number 1 pick in our 2017 redraft.
- 1. Minnesota Twins
New selection: Hunter Greene | Original selection: Royce Lewis
Where the new selection was originally selected: 2 - 2. Cincinnati Reds
New selection: Daulton Varsho | Original selection: Hunter Greene
Where the new selection was originally selected: 6 - 3. San Diego Padres
New selection: MacKenzie Gore | Original selection: MacKenzie Gore - 4. Tampa Bay Rays
New selection: David Peterson | Original selection: Brendan McKay
Where the new selection was originally selected: 20 - 5. Atlanta Braves
New selection: Royce Lewis | Original selection: Kyle Wright
Where the new selection was originally selected: 16 - 6. Oakland Athletics
New selection: Bailey Ober | Original selection: Austin Beck
Where the new selection was originally selected: 34 - 7. Arizona Diamondbacks
New selection: Brent Rooker | Original selection: Pavin Smith
Where the new selection was originally selected: 35 - 8. Philadelphia Phillies
New selection: Mark Vientos | Original selection: Adam Haseley
Where the new selection was originally selected: 59 - 9. Milwaukee Brewers
New selection: Heliot Ramos | Original selection: Keston Hiura
Where the new selection was originally selected: 191 - 10. Los Angeles Angels
New selection: Jose Caballero | Original selection: Jo Adell
Where the new selection was originally selected: 202
Biggest bust: Keston Hiura. While other picks, such as McKay and Wright, were hampered by injuries, Hiura quickly reached the majors in 2019 and looked like a future star after hitting .303/.368/.570 in 84 games. However, many players had inflated numbers that season, and his high strikeout rate caught up with him in 2020. He has spent most of the last three seasons in the minors.
Overview: In the 2015 overview, we noted that that year’s draft class was viewed as the worst since 2000. Well, 2017 was viewed at the time as perhaps even weaker than 2015.Draft 2018
Tarik Skubal is the number 1 selection in our 2018 redraft.
- 1. Detroit Tigers
New selection: Tarik Skubal | Original selection: Casey Mize
Where the new selection was originally selected: 25 - 2. San Francisco Giants
New selection: Cal Raleigh | Original selection: Joey Bart
Where the new selection was originally selected: 90 - 3. Philadelphia Phillies
New selection: Jeremy Pena | Original selection: Alec Bohm
Where the new selection was originally selected: 102 - 4. Chicago White Sox
New selection: Steven Kwan | Original selection: Nick Madrigal
Where the new selection was originally selected: 163 - 5. Cincinnati Reds
New selection: Nico Hoerner | Original selection: Jonathan India
Where the new selection was originally selected: 24 - 6. New York Mets
New selection: Logan Gilbert | Original selection: Jarred Kelenic
Where the new selection was originally selected: 14 - 7. San Diego Padres
New selection: Jarren Duran | Original selection: Ryan Weathers
Where the new selection was originally selected: 220 - 8. Atlanta Braves
New selection: Joe Ryan | Original selection: Carter Stewart
Where the new selection was originally selected: 210 - 9. Oakland Athletics
New selection: Brice Turang | Original selection: Kyler Murray
Where the new selection was originally selected: 21 - 10. Pittsburgh Pirates
New selection: Lawrence Butler | Original selection: Travis Swaggerty
Where the new selection was originally selected: 173
Biggest bust: Kyler Murray/Carter Stewart. This draft had two of the most curious results in recent draft history. Murray’s story is well known. The Athletics gave a slight surprise by selecting him ninth overall, even though he had only played one full season of baseball at Oklahoma. They gave him a signing bonus of $4.66 million and agreed to let him play one more year of college football before starting his baseball career. Murray won the Heisman Trophy that fall and abandoned baseball for the NFL.
Stewart’s story is less well-known. A great right-handed pitcher from a Florida high school, Stewart reached 98 mph with a high-spin curveball. He was ranked No. 2 on ESPN’s draft board and No. 5 on MLB.com, and was eighth with the Braves. A wrist injury, according to reports, caused the Braves to reduce their bonus offer, which Stewart refused to sign, enrolling in community college instead. However, instead of waiting for the 2019 draft, he signed to play in Japan with the Fukuoaka Soft Bank Hawks in a six-year deal worth $6 million, becoming the first U.S.-born first-round pick to sign his first professional contract with a Japanese team. After some time in the Japanese minor leagues, Stewart had a sensational season in 2024, with an ERA of 1.95 in 120 innings. Along the way, he signed a two-year, $10 million extension. He has been injured so far in 2025 and hasn’t pitched, but he would still only be 27 years old when he becomes an unrestricted free agent after 2026.Overview: While this draft hasn’t necessarily produced a long list of great stars, the overall depth is impressive, even though the top 10 picks have been disappointing, with India leading that group with less than 7 career WAR. Mize was the number one pick without hesitation after a dominant junior season at Auburn and, after a slow start to his career and Tommy John surgery in 2022, is having his best season in 2025. The Giants would have been better off selecting a different ACC catcher than Bart (Georgia Tech) as the Mariners got Raleigh (Florida State) in the third round.
The draft steal, of course, has been Skubal, a ninth-round selection from the University of Seattle. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2016 and missed the 2017 season, although he returned to throw some bullpens before the draft. The Diamondbacks took him in the 29th round, but he returned to school. Despite reaching 95 mph, his wildness scared teams. A key to the long-term value of this draft will be the health of the pitchers. Mize, Rasmussen, and Bubic have already returned from injuries (multiple Tommy John surgeries in Rasmussen’s case). Bradish, McClanahan, and Rodriguez have yet to pitch in 2025, and Gilbert is also currently on the injured list.
