MLB: Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease, Red Sox and Rangers Make Moves

MLB Offseason 2025-26: Analysis and Key Moves

The MLB 2025-26 season of changes is already here! Alofoke Deportes offers you a detailed analysis of the most important signings and transfers this winter, with ratings and expert comments. From big contracts that will redefine the future of the teams to shocking transfers, we will keep you informed of everything that means for the next season and beyond. We will analyze each move as it materializes, offering fresh and updated perspectives until the start of spring training.

Toronto Blue Jays Strike First With Dylan Cease

The agreement: Seven years, $210 million

Rating: B

One of the most interesting aspects of free agency in MLB is the lack of direct correlation between the number of suitors and the actual value of a player on the field. There is only a limited number of teams willing and able to invest nine-figure sums. In recent years, we have seen prominent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell settle for short-term contracts at the end of the offseason, waiting for a long-term offer that never arrived or was withdrawn. In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes sense for him to sign early, while money is available. He is a pitcher with clear skills and abilities, but also with inconsistent results, which was going to generate a wide range of evaluations from teams, and therefore different offers. The $210 million deal that the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is close to the upper end for him, considering Kiley McDaniel’s projection of five years and $145 million.

The positive:

• Pure Quality: The “Stuff+” metric (which several sites calculate based on aspects such as spin, movement, and velocity) rates Cease’s pitches as some of the best in Major League Baseball, including a fastball that averages 97 mph.
• Durability: Cease has accumulated five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. Since 2021, he leads the Major Leagues in games started and is seventh in innings pitched.
• Age: He is entering his 30th season, clearly in his prime years.

The negative:

• His earned run average (ERA) has fluctuated from 2.20 to 4.58, then to 3.47 and finally to 4.55 in the last four seasons, with corresponding changes in his value.
• His lack of efficiency not only leads to too many walks, leading the majors in the last four seasons, but also to short outings due to the high number of pitches. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts.

In his best season, in 2022, his slider was untouchable, while his four-seam fastball and knuckle curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curve has not been as effective since then, and this has made him a two-pitch pitcher. The Blue Jays hope that the continued development of their other releases helps Cease return to being one of the best starters in the majors. At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid starter to complement Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos. The best version of Cease is a number 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy all season and Berríos’s elbow inflammation was only temporary, that’s a rotation that could be as good as any other in the game. We know the Blue Jays were going to make a big move this offseason. This might not be their only major move.

Red Sox Bolster Rotation with Trade from St. Louis

Red Sox get:

• Right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray
• $20 million in cash

Cardinals get:

• Left-handed pitcher Brandon Clarke
• Right-handed pitcher Richard Fitts

Red Sox Grade: B+

The Red Sox boasted three-fifths of an exceptional rotation in 2025, with Garrett Crochet leading the way and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito producing solid seasons as the second and third starters. That was enough for the Red Sox to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021, but after Giolito declined his portion of a $19 million mutual option, the Red Sox were looking for a veteran starter to replace him. They decided on Gray, who is 36 years old, but is coming off a second consecutive season with 200 strikeouts, in addition to leading National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox, according to reports, restructured Gray’s deal to pay him $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027, essentially making it a one-year contract for $41 million (with the Cardinals covering half of that amount). It’s undoubtedly a great deal for Gray, who undoubtedly happily waived his no-trade clause to leave St. Louis. As for Gray as a pitcher, he’s an interesting mix. When he can get to two strikes, he’s one of the best in the game, ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a strikeout rate of almost 52% while holding batters to a .135 average. His sweeper is his signature strikeout pitch, recording 111 of his 201 strikeouts. His curveball generated a 34% whiff rate.

His problems arose against his fastballs, as hitters batted .370 and slugged .585 against his four-seam fastball (which he uses more against left-handed hitters) and batted .281 and slugged .484 against his sinker (which he uses more against right-handers). He also throws a cutter, which takes off some velocity, but was also similarly ineffective, with hitters batting .387 against it. The damage against his fastballs led to 25 home runs allowed and an ERA of 4.28, despite excellent walk and strikeout numbers.

Can that be fixed? With a fastball averaging 92 mph, maybe not. Gray threw his three fastball variations 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox will suggest a different mix of pitches; the four-seam fastball, although it gives him the only pitch Gray throws in the upper zone, has been punished for two years in a row, but it was still the pitch he used the most in 2025.

In general, Gray fills a large void without the Red Sox paying a long-term contract, and the Red Sox didn’t give up anyone projected to be an impact player for them in 2026.Cardinals Rating: C It’s not exactly a salary dump, but it has that feeling, although the Cardinals at least contributed $20 million to get a slightly better return on the player’s side. Fitts could be a back-end-of-the-rotation player, and given the gaps in St. Louis’ rotation, he’s almost certain to get that opportunity. His four-seam fastball, which sits between 95 and 96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn’t really developed a reliable secondary offering. His slider was hit hard and didn’t generate enough swings and misses. Perhaps his sweeper/curveball combination will eventually elevate his game, but he threw both less than 11% of the time. Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty who has reached 100 mph, was drafted from a Florida junior college in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in high school and took a gap year in Alabama with another injury. The Red Sox limited him to 14 starts and 38 innings in 2025 in Class A, where he recorded both high strikeout numbers (60) and high walk totals (27). ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him as the No. 9 prospect in the Boston system in August, and while there is a clear upside if everything clicks, he’s not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk. For the Cardinals, at least they have made their intentions clear: if 2025 was a “reset”, 2026 is going to be a rebuild. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, and Willson Contreras could also be traded before the winter ends.

Rangers and Mets Swap Veterans

Mets get:

• Second base Marcus Semien

Rangers get:

• Outfielder Brandon Nimmo

Mets Grade: C+

One-for-one exchanges of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one arrives, and people are familiar with both players, the “blockbuster” tag begins to be used in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York in exchange for Nimmo, who spent his entire career with the Mets, is interesting. It’s also a trade involving two players over 30 who have expensive multi-season contracts. Mediocre would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations of this deal on Baseball Trade Values illustrate the underwater contracts involved very well.

For the Mets, it’s important to emphasize the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Although he competed for the American League MVP award during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have declined since then, as is often the case with middle infielders with his expanding timeline. In the last two seasons, his bat has been just below the league average, and while there is a lot of value in being more or less average, it remains a precarious base for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive outlook is not as good as that of the presumed regular player at second base for New York, Jeff McNeil, who could still play a lot in other positions. That being said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second Gold Glove of his career, an honor backed by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at second base since he moved from shortstop. Although Semien’s contract presents a higher average annual value than Nimmo’s ($25 million in terms of luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it is of shorter duration and the move will reduce New York’s considerable long-term obligations. One thing that is perplexing here: the Mets have a lot of depth in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuña to Ronny Mauricio and Jett Williams, all of whom have considerably more potential than Semien at the moment.

Rangers Rating: C+

If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared to what the Rangers had been getting from the recently non-tendered Adolis García. He is not as good a defender as García, especially in terms of arm strength and, in fact, is more likely to play in left field in Texas instead of García’s old position in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glove winner at his position and now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, he is concerned that the Rangers are affecting his defense. We’ll see how that turns out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a boost from the change of venue. He has generally hit better on the road than at Citi Field, a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and Globe Life Field, though strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a good place to hit for left-handed hitters. The project in Texas is clear. It’s not just about improving offensive production, but also about pursuing that goal by changing the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slight improvement over Semien and a downgrade over García. But Nimmo is a much better hitter in terms of average than both, and has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are two characteristics that the Rangers’ offense badly needed. Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a long-term problem than it will be in 2026, when he’ll be making $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to retool while controlling spending, and this is the type of deal that helps that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the true downside of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new view for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a level below where they were during his prime with the Mets.

Orioles Trade Former Top Prospect for Angels’ Power Hitter

Orioles get:

• Left fielder Taylor Ward

Angelinos get:

• Right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles Grade: D

The first big trade of last offseason occurred on November 22, when Cincinnati traded Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This was leaked on November 18, so we’re starting earlier. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal will be the vanguard of an upcoming baseball trade market. Trades are fun.

Unfortunately, while it was easy to understand the reasoning of both sides in the aforementioned agreement between the Reds and the Royals, I’m not sure I understand this one so much from the Orioles’ side. The caveat is that perhaps the Baltimore front office, which obviously knows much more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (I just made that up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.

I don’t like to be too actuarial with these things, but one has to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season, while Rodríguez has four seasons of team control remaining on his service time clock. Therefore, even if Rodríguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season while trying to recover from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that develop.

Ward turns 32 next month, which likely puts him on the outer edge of his prime. He’s been a decent player, averaging 3.0 bWAR over the last four years, but his skillset is limited. Ward has been a fixture in left field the last two seasons and has shown a decline both defensively and on the bases. He’s someone who is acquired for his bat. On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 home runs in 2025, but his expected underlying numbers generated by Statcast suggest he slightly exceeded his expectations in that area. Ward, who bats right-handed, generates power to the opposite field, but his power game is likely to still see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He is patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he is almost always looking for a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes. That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a heavy distribution of elevated balls, has led to a constantly falling average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. It’s a type of “take and rake” that doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which could overload his walk rate enough to raise his OBP to an acceptable level, which won’t be given the trend of the batting average.

And would all this be okay for a year of a productive hitter who would probably earn between $12 and $14 million through the arbitration process? But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I don’t see it.

Angels Grade: A-

This is about potential for an Angels pitching staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. Expecting Rodríguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he may never get there. His results in the Major Leagues (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP in 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. Rodríguez’s appeal remains the combination of high potential and controllable seasons.

And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodríguez as the best pitching prospect in the game in 2022 and ranked him almost as high in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (I did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.

Whether or not there’s much chance of Rodríguez getting there is almost irrelevant. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of turning around underperforming/injury-prone pitchers, but maybe the Angels can make some headway in this area.

The deal opens a hole in the outfield for the Angels without an obvious organizational fill-in solution. But finding a free agent replacement that approximates or exceeds Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote to go after Cody Bellinger.

The possibility of that kind of improvement and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the incredibly low price of a season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up.

Sailors Begin Winter with Naylor’s Renewal

The agreement: 5 years, $92.5 millionRating: A-

If there were an award for the free agent prediction most likely to come true, Josh Naylor’s return to the Seattle Mariners would have been the favorite, so it’s no surprise that this is the first major signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking Game 7 loss in the American League Championship Series, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was their top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare, and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.

It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been looking for a long-term solution at first base for, well, about 20 years; actually, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple of solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005 only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s. Naylor, for his part, arrived at the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a great spark in the final stretch, batting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, earning him 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished with .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor talked about how he loves to hit there. The numbers back it up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534. Important for a Seattle lineup that relies heavily on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the seventeenth-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s complete game is a bit contradictory. He ranks in the seventh percentile in chase rate, but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!), but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19 of 19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t seem like he was fast on the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the last four seasons. He’s not a star (3.1 WAR in 2025 was a personal record), but he’s a safe and predictable player to count on in the coming years. This deal extends to his 33rd season, so there may be some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing, and so will Mariners fans.