MLB: Blue Jays Sign Dylan Cease, Red Sox and Rangers Make Moves

MLB Free Agency: Analysis and Grades of the First Signings

The MLB 2025-26 movement season has begun! Here we offer you analysis and ratings of each key signing and trade this winter. From major free agent signings that could change the course of your team to spectacular trades, we’ll keep you informed of everything it means for next season and beyond. We will be updating this coverage with the experts from Alofoke Deportes to offer you the freshest analysis until the start of spring training.

Toronto Blue Jays Secure Dylan Cease

The Blue Jays have made the first big move in the market, securing pitcher Dylan Cease.The agreement: Seven years, $210 million

Rating: B

One of the interesting dynamics in MLB free agency is that the number of teams interested in a player doesn’t always correlate directly with their value on the field. After all, there are few teams willing and able to spend nine-figure sums. In recent years, we’ve seen excellent players like Pete Alonso, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell settle for short-term deals at the end of the offseason, waiting for a big long-term offer that never came, or that was taken off the table. In the case of Dylan Cease, it makes a lot of sense that he signed early, while the money was available. He is a pitcher with clear skills and ability, but also with frustratingly inconsistent results, which was going to lead to a wide variation in how teams evaluated him, and therefore in the offers he would receive. The $210 million deal that the Toronto Blue Jays gave Cease is close to the upper end for him, given Kiley McDaniel’s projection of five years and $145 million.

Positive Aspects

• Pure Ability: The “Stuff+” metric (which several sites calculate based on many factors such as spin, movement, and velocity) rates Cease’s pitches as some of the best in the majors, including a fastball that averages 97 mph. Among pitchers with at least 100 innings in 2025, he tied for 12th in Stuff+ according to FanGraphs.
• Durability: Cease is on a streak of five consecutive seasons with at least 32 starts. Since 2021, he is first in the majors in games started and seventh in innings. Considering that the best predictor of future injuries is past injuries, that health record and projected durability give him a high margin for any future deal.
• Age: He is entering his 30th season, clearly in his prime years.

Negative Aspects

• Inconsistency: His earned run average (ERA) has risen from 2.20 to 4.58 to 3.47 to 4.55 in the last four seasons, with corresponding changes in his value, from 6.4 WAR in 2022 with the Chicago White Sox to only 1.1 with the San Diego Padres in 2025, when he had a high ERA despite pitching in a good park for pitchers. His ERA on the road in 2025 was 5.58, which is certainly worrying, as he is now going to a division with better offense and a more hitter-friendly park.
• Inefficiency: His lack of efficiency not only leads to too many walks (he leads the majors in the last four seasons), but also to short outings due to the high number of pitches. Cease failed to last five innings in 10 of his 32 starts, which is too much for a pitcher who just received $210 million.

In his best season, in 2022, Cease’s slider was untouchable, while his four-seam fastball and knuckle curve were also effective, making him a three-pitch pitcher. The curve hasn’t been as effective since then, with hitters batting .576 against it in 2025, .444 in 2024, and .538 in 2023, making him a two-pitch pitcher now. He began throwing a sweeper and a sinker a bit more often last season, and perhaps the continued development of those pitches will help him return to being one of the best starters in the majors. The Blue Jays are counting on that. They’ll likely note that their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which considers only strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, has been fairly consistent over the last four years: 3.10, 3.72, 3.10, and 3.56, respectively. That averages 3.36, with their actual ERA going up and down depending on the variations of their batting average on balls in play (.261 and .266 in ’22 and ’24, .331 and .323 in ’23 and ’25). At a minimum, the Blue Jays get a solid mid-rotation starter to go with Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, and José Berríos. The good version of Cease is a number 2 starter who sometimes looks like an ace. If Bieber is healthy all season and Berríos’ elbow inflammation at the end of the season was only temporary, that’s a rotation that could be as good as any in the game. We knew the Jays were going to make a big move this offseason. This might not be their only consequential move.

Red Sox Bolster Rotation with Trade for Sonny Gray

The Red Sox bolster their rotation with a trade with St. Louis.

Red Sox receive:

• Right-handed pitcher Sonny Gray
• $20 million in cash

Cardinals receive:

• Left-handed pitcher Brandon Clarke
• Right-handed pitcher Richard Fitts

Red Sox Grade: B+

The Red Sox had three-fifths of a standout rotation in 2025, with Garrett Crochet leading the way and Brayan Bello and Lucas Giolito producing solid campaigns as the second and third starters. That was enough for the Red Sox to return to the postseason for the first time since 2021, but after Giolito declined his portion of a $19 million mutual option, the Red Sox were looking for a veteran starter to replace him. They landed on Gray, who is 36 years old but is coming off a second consecutive season of 200 strikeouts, in addition to leading National League starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Red Sox have restructured Gray’s deal to pay him $31 million in 2026 with a $10 million buyout on a mutual option for 2027, essentially turning this into a one-year rental for $41 million (with the Cardinals covering half of that bill). It’s certainly a great deal for Gray, who undoubtedly happily waived his no-trade clause to get out of St. Louis. As for Gray, the pitcher, he’s an interesting mix. When he can get to two strikes, he’s one of the best in the game, ranking fourth in the majors among starters with a strikeout rate of almost 52% (Crochet was first with 54.3%), while holding batters to a .135 average. His sweeper is his strikeout pitch, recording 111 of his 201 strikeouts. His curveball generated a whiff rate of 34%. His problems arose against his fastballs, as hitters batted .370 and slugged .585 against his four-seam fastball (which he uses more against left-handed hitters) and batted .281 and slugged .484 against his sinker (which he uses more against right-handed hitters). He also throws a cutter, which takes off some velocity, but which was also equally ineffective, with hitters batting .387 against it. The damage against his fastballs led to 25 home runs allowed and an ERA of 4.28, despite excellent walk and strikeout numbers.

Can that be fixed? With a fastball averaging 92 mph, maybe not. Gray threw his three fastball variants 53% of the time, so maybe the Red Sox will suggest a different mix of pitches: the four-seam fastball, although it gives him the only pitch that Gray throws in the zone, has been punished for two years in a row, but it was still the pitch he used the most in 2025.

In general, Gray plugs a big hole without the Red Sox paying a long-term contract, and the Red Sox didn’t give up anyone projected to be an impact player for them in 2026 (like starters Payton Tolle and Connelly Early, who debuted last season and could be in the rotation in 2026).Cardinals Rating: C It’s not exactly a salary dump, but it feels like one, although the Cardinals at least contributed $20 million to get a little more return on the player’s side. Fitts could be a back-end rotation player, and given the gaps in St. Louis’ rotation, he’s almost certain to get that opportunity. His four-seam fastball, which sits between 95 and 96, was an effective pitch in the 10 starts he made for the Red Sox in 2025, but he hasn’t really developed a reliable secondary offering. His slider was hit hard and didn’t generate enough swings and misses. Maybe his sweeper/curve combination will eventually elevate his game, but he threw both less than 11% of the time. Clarke, a hard-throwing lefty who has reached 100 mph, was drafted from a Florida college in 2024. He underwent Tommy John surgery in high school and missed a year at Alabama due to another injury. The Red Sox limited him to 14 starts and 38 innings in 2025 in Class A, where he recorded both high strikeout numbers (60) and walk totals (27). ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked him as the No. 9 prospect in Boston’s system in August, and while there is obvious potential if everything goes well, he is not close to the majors and the profile screams reliever risk. For the Cardinals, at least they have made their intentions clear: If 2025 was a “reset”, 2026 is going to be a rebuild. Nolan Arenado, Brendan Donovan, and Willson Contreras could also be traded before the winter ends.

Rangers and Mets Trade Veterans

The Rangers and the Mets make a trade between veterans.

Mets receive:

• Second base Marcus Semien

Rangers receive:

• Gardener Brandon Nimmo

Mets Grade: C+ One-for-one exchanges of quality veterans are rare enough these days that when one lands, and people are familiar with both players, the “blockbuster” tag starts to get thrown around in a way that would make Frantic Frank Lane roll his eyes. This deal, which brings Semien to New York in exchange for career Met Nimmo, is interesting. It’s also a trade involving two players over 30 carrying expensive multi-season contracts. Tarnished would be a better description than blockbuster. The valuations of this deal on Baseball Trade Values illustrate the underwater contracts involved very well.

For the Mets, it’s important to underscore the fact that Semien is 35 years old. Although he competed for the AL MVP during Texas’ championship season in 2023, his offensive numbers have since declined, as often happens with middle infielders with his expanding timeline. In the last two seasons, his bat has been just below the league average, and while there is much value in being roughly average, it’s still a precarious base for a player on the downside of his career. His offensive outlook is not as good as that of the presumed regular player at second base for New York, Jeff McNeil, who could still play a lot in other positions.

That said, Semien is a much better defender than McNeil. Semien is coming off his second Gold Glove of his career, an honor backed by consistently strong fielding metrics that have marked his play at the base since he moved from shortstop. Although Semien’s contract presents a higher average annual value than Nimmo’s ($25 million in terms of luxury tax calculation versus $20.5 million), it is of shorter duration and the move will reduce New York’s considerable long-term obligations. One thing that is perplexing here: The Mets have a lot of depth in high-quality infield prospects, from Luisangel Acuña to Ronny Mauricio and Jett Williams, all of whom have considerably more potential than Semien at this moment.

Rangers Rating: C+

If you ignore positional adjustments, Nimmo is a better hitter than Semien and should be a considerable upgrade for Texas in the outfield compared to what the Rangers had been getting from Adolis García, recently non-tendered. He is not as good a defender as García, especially in terms of arm strength and, in fact, is more likely to play in left field in Texas instead of García’s old position in right. As mentioned, Semien was a Gold Glove winner at his position and, therefore, now, in their effort to remake an offense that needed an overhaul, you worry that the Rangers are affecting their defense.

We’ll see how that turns out as the offseason unfolds, but for now, we can focus on Nimmo’s bat and the possibility that his numbers could get a boost from the change of venue. He has generally hit better on the road than at pitcher-friendly Citi Field, and Globe Life Field, though strangely stingy overall last season, has typically been a good place to hit for left-handed hitters. The project in Texas is clear. It’s not just about improving offensive production, but also about pursuing that goal by changing the focus of the attack. Nimmo’s power bat is a slight improvement over Semien and a downgrade from García. But Nimmo is a much better hitter in terms of average than both, and has the best plate discipline of the trio. These are both characteristics that the Rangers’ offense sorely needed. Nimmo’s contract is a problem, but it’s more of a long-term problem than it will be in 2026, when he’ll be earning $5.5 million less than Semien. Texas is looking to reorganize while controlling spending, and this is the kind of deal that helps that agenda. The Rangers can worry about the real inconvenience of Nimmo’s deal later. For now, they can hope that moving to a new view for the first time will boost Nimmo’s numbers, which have settled a level below where they were during his best time with the Mets.

The Orioles Trade Their Former Star Prospect for the Offensive Power of the Angels

The Orioles trade their former star prospect for the offensive power of the Angels.

Orioles receive:

• Left fielder Taylor Ward

Angels receive:

• Right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez

Orioles Grade: D

The first big trade of last offseason came on November 22, when Cincinnati traded Jonathan India to Kansas City for Brady Singer. This was leaked on November 18, so we’re starting earlier. Given the relatively tepid nature of this year’s free agent class, the hope is that this deal will be the vanguard of an upcoming baseball trade market. Trades are fun.

Unfortunately, while it was easy to understand the reasoning of both sides in the aforementioned agreement between the Reds and the Royals, I’m not sure I understand this one so much from the Orioles’ side. The caveat is that perhaps the Baltimore front office, which obviously knows much more about Rodriguez than I do, has good reason to think that Gray-Rod (I just made that up) is not likely to live up to his considerable pre-MLB hype.

I don’t like to be too actuarial with these things, but one has to be in this case because Ward will be a free agent after the 2026 season, while Rodriguez has four seasons of team control remaining on his service time clock. Therefore, even if Rodriguez is likely to need an adjustment period this season while trying to recover from the injuries that cost him all of 2025, Baltimore would have had plenty of time to let that develop.

Ward turns 32 next month, which likely puts him on the outer edge of his career prime. He’s been a decent player (averaging 3.0 bWAR over the last four years), but his skill set is limited. Ward has been a fixture in left field the past two years and has shown a decline in both defense and on the bases. He’s someone you acquire for his bat. On that front, Ward hit a career-high 36 home runs in 2025, but his underlying expected numbers generated by Statcast suggest he was a bit lucky in that area. The right-handed hitting Ward generates power to the opposite field, but his power game will likely still see a negative impact from the move to Camden Yards. He is patient at the plate to the point of occasional passivity, as he is almost always looking for a pitch to drive, even if that means taking a couple of strikes. That’s not a bad thing, but that approach, combined with a heavy distribution of fly balls, has led to a constantly falling average: .281 to .253 to .246 to .228. It’s a “take and rake” type that doesn’t generate enough fear from pitchers to keep them out of the zone, which could overload their walk rate enough to raise their OBP to an acceptable level, which won’t be given the trend of the batting average.

And would all this be okay for a year of a productive hitter who would probably earn between $12 and $14 million through the arbitration process? But at the cost of four years of a pitcher with Rodriguez’s ceiling? I don’t see it.

Angels Rating: A-

This is about the potential for an Angels pitching staff desperate for a true No. 1 starter. Expecting Rodriguez to fill that need in 2026 is a lot, and perhaps, given his durability issues, he may never get there. His results in the major leagues (97 ERA+, 3.80 FIP in 43 starts in 2023 and 2024) are solid but nothing special. Rodriguez’s appeal remains the combination of high ceiling and controllable seasons. And the ceiling is very high. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Rodriguez as the best pitching prospect in the game in 2022 and rated him almost as highly in 2023. The mere possibility of Gray-Rod (I did it again) fulfilling that potential in an Angels uniform is an exciting notion for fans in Anaheim.

Whether or not there’s much of a chance of Rodriguez getting there is almost irrelevant. I’d feel better about this if he were headed to an organization with a better track record of transforming underperforming / injury-prone pitchers, but maybe the Angels can make some headway in this area.

The deal opens a hole in the outfield for the Angels without an obvious organizational plug-in solution. But finding a free agent replacement that approximates or surpasses Ward’s production shouldn’t break the bank. Here’s a vote to go after Cody Bellinger.

The possibility of that kind of improvement and maybe someday a fully realized Gray-Rod, all for the incredibly low price of a season of Taylor Ward? Sign me up.

Sailors Begin Winter with Naylor Re-Signing

The Mariners begin the winter with the re-signing of Naylor.The agreement: 5 years, $92.5 millionRating: A-

If there were an award for the free agent prediction most likely to come true, Josh Naylor’s return to the Seattle Mariners would have been the favorite, so it’s no surprise that this is the first significant signing of the offseason (pending a physical). As soon as the Mariners’ season ended with that heartbreaking Game 7 loss in the American League Championship Series, the front office made it clear that re-signing Naylor was their top priority. Such public vocalizations at that level are rare, and the Mariners backed them up with a five-year contract.

It’s easy to understand why they wanted Naylor back. The Mariners have been looking for a long-term solution at first base for, well, about 20 years, really, since they traded John Olerud in 2004. Ty France gave them a couple of solid seasons in 2021 and 2022, but since 2005, only the Pirates’ first basemen have produced a lower OPS than Seattle’s. Naylor, for his part, arrived on the trade deadline from Arizona and provided a great spark down the stretch, batting .299/.341/.490 with nine home runs and 33 RBIs in 54 games, earning him 2.2 WAR. Including his time with the Diamondbacks, he finished with .295/.353/.462 with 20 home runs in 2025. Given the pitcher-friendly nature of T-Mobile Park, it’s not easy to attract free agent hitters to Seattle, but Naylor talked about how he loves to hit there. The numbers back it up: In 43 career games at T-Mobile, he has hit .304 and slugged .534. It’s important for a Seattle lineup that relies heavily on strikeouts, Naylor is a high-contact hitter in the middle of the order; he finished with the seventeenth-best strikeout rate among qualified hitters in 2025. Naylor’s whole game is a bit of a contradiction. He ranks in the seventh percentile in chase rate, but still had a nearly league-average walk rate (46th percentile) with an excellent contact rate. He can’t run (third percentile!), but stole 30 bases in 32 attempts, including 19 of 19 after joining the Mariners. He doesn’t seem like he’s fast on the field, but his Statcast defensive metrics have been above average in each of the last four seasons.

He’s not a star (3.1 WAR in 2025 was the peak of his career), but he’s a safe and predictable player to rely on in the coming years. This deal extends to his 33rd season, so there may be some risk at the end of the contract, but for a team with World Series aspirations in 2026, the Mariners needed to bring Naylor back. The front office will be happy with this signing, and so will Mariners fans.