MLB Free Agent Class Analysis 2025-26: Outlook and Predictions
The MLB free agent class for the 2025-26 season is shaping up to be fascinating, despite the absence of star names like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, or Juan Soto, dominant figures in recent seasons. This edition stands out for its depth in power hitters and closing relievers, with a good number of starting pitchers and third basemen.
The uncertainty about the players’ fate adds excitement to the offseason. Unexpected moves, such as the possible departure of Kyle Schwarber from the Philadelphia Phillies or Pete Alonso from the New York Mets, could generate a domino effect with significant consequences.
Historically, high-profile free agents have maintained their value. In 2024, the top ten domestic agents retained 82% of their value compared to the previous year. In 2023-24, this figure was 57%, and in 2022-23, only 54%.
Here’s a breakdown of the key predictions and analysis for the 2025-26 offseason.
Player with potential to sign with a surprise team: Kyle Tucker
Kyle Tucker is considered the most coveted free agent, with projections of an 11-year, $418 million contract. However, his age and recent injuries could influence teams’ decisions.
Tucker will turn 29, an age that raises questions. Of the contracts of more than $300 million previously awarded, few players were older than Tucker at the time of signing. In addition, Tucker has suffered significant injuries in consecutive seasons, which could affect his value.
Tucker’s high cost limits the number of teams that can aspire to hire him. Although the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, and Blue Jays have economic potential, each faces specific challenges that could influence their decision.
- Los Angeles Dodgers: They have money available, but they need to rejuvenate their roster, especially in the outfield.
- New York Mets: With financial capacity, but they could allocate a large part of their resources to retain Alonso and Díaz.
- New York Yankees: The outfield is already congested, which could make it difficult for Tucker to arrive.
- Philadelphia Phillies: They will prioritize the renewal of Schwarber, in addition to covering other needs in the team.
- Toronto Blue Jays: Considered favorites, but the sum of a $400 million contract with that of Guerrero Jr. could be a factor.
If these teams don’t secure Tucker, others like the Orioles, Giants, Rangers, Reds, and White Sox could be viable options.
Player with potential to help the Dodgers achieve the three-peat: Bo Bichette
Bichette fits the Dodgers’ needs: they need a second baseman, he’s a consistent hitter, and he’s in his prime. With a projected five-year, $130 million contract, Bichette could be an excellent addition to the team.
Player the Reds need to welcome with open arms: Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber, with his offensive power, fits perfectly with the Reds’ needs. His projected contract is more affordable than Tucker’s, and his geographical proximity could be a positive factor.
Player with potential for 40 home runs… or to be the biggest bust: Munetaka Murakami
Murakami possesses a tremendous power, but his high strikeout rate and inconsistent performance could be a problem in MLB. His youth makes him an attractive prospect, but his adaptation to the league is uncertain.
The perfect “Swiss army knife” player: Cody Bellinger
Bellinger offers versatility in the field and a more accessible contract than Tucker. He is a superior defender and a faster runner, making him a valuable option for several teams.
Player Needed to Take the Phillies to the Top: Alex Bregman
Bregman would bring experience and a change of energy to the Phillies. His ability to hit and his history of success would be a great addition to the team.
The Closer Worth the Risk: Devin Williams
Williams, despite an irregular season, continues to show great potential. His ability to strike out batters and his low expected batting average make him an attractive signing for teams looking to strengthen their bullpen.
Best Free Agent Moment Award: Tatsuya Imai
Imai, after a standout season in Japan, could get a lucrative contract. However, his control and reliance on the fastball could be risk factors in MLB.
Player Most Likely to End Up on the Pittsburgh Pirates: Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn, with his offensive potential, could find in the Pirates the opportunity to play regularly and prove his worth.
The 40-year-old starting pitcher to bet on: Justin Verlander
Verlander, despite his age, remains a viable option for a team. His performance in the 2025 season and his experience make him a valuable pitcher, especially in a pitcher-friendly park.
