Judge vs. Raleigh: MVP in the final stretch, Ohtani dominates. Alofoke Analysis

As the baseball regular season heads into its final stretch, the competition for individual awards intensifies. This is our fourth and final regular season analysis, and we’ve adjusted the format to focus on the main contenders in each category.

Most Valuable Player

American LeagueMain contenders: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees vs. Cal Raleigh, Seattle MarinersOther contenders: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals; Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians; Julio Rodriguez, Mariners; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays; Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins; Corey Seager, Texas Rangers; Jeremy Pena, Houston Astros, Cody Bellinger, Yankees, Maikel Garcia, Royals.Race Analysis: The competition is fiercer than the odds suggest. Judge has had a better offensive season, despite Raleigh’s historic home run pace and RBI leadership. Judge has a considerable advantage in OPS+ and wRC+. Raleigh has played more games, but Judge has created more runs with fewer outs. Judge also leads American League hitters in win probability and added championship probability. Raleigh ranks fifth in both statistics. Raleigh, as a catcher, plays a valuable defensive position and has done very well. He could be having the best season a catcher has ever had. He has broken the home run record for a catcher and is close to surpassing the switch-hitter record set 64 years ago by Mickey Mantle. If that happens, and Raleigh reaches 60 home runs, how could he not win the MVP?How he could change: Raleigh has hit .208 since the All-Star break, and his season average could decrease. He’s a catcher and could be fatigued. If he falters and the Mariners don’t make the playoffs, a typical Judge finish could be enough to convince voters.Prediction: Raleigh surpasses Mantle’s record, doesn’t reach 60 home runs, but maintains his numbers strong enough to beat Judge at the finish line.

National League

Main contenders: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Juan Soto, New York MetsOther contenders: Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies; Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs, Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres, Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks; Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks, Francisco Lindor, Mets; Kyle Tucker, Cubs; Will Smith, Dodgers, Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks, Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers, Nico Hoerner, Cubs, Kyle Schwarber, Phillies.Career Analysis: Ohtani seems to be in control, especially since the betting markets favor Schwarber as his main competitor. Ohtani combines Schwarber’s power in the slugging and home run categories with Soto’s mastery on base. Ohtani also adds 36 innings of excellent pitching (2.17 FIP), giving him defensive value. Ohtani leads the National League in win probability and added championship probability. Soto is second in both categories, and Schwarber is outside the top 10. Ohtani seems to be getting his fourth MVP trophy, and the third in a row.How it could change: Of the names on the list, Turner has been the most prominent lately, so he could end up in second place at the end of the season.Prediction: Ohtani wins by a landslide.

Cy Young

American LeagueMain contenders: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers vs. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red SoxOther contenders: Hunter Brown, Astros; Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers; Trevor Rogers, Baltimore Orioles; Framber Valdez, Astros, Joe Ryan, Twins; Max Fried, Yankees, Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox; Michael Wacha, Royals, Drew Rasmussen, Tampa Bay Rays.Race Analysis: Skubal has the edge in all the main metrics. Both left-handed pitchers have gained momentum as the season has progressed. In the last month, Crochet is 2-0 with an ERA of 3.00 and an astonishing K-to-BB ratio of 40 to 2 in 33 innings. However, he hasn’t gained ground on Skubal, who is 2-1 with an ERA of 1.04 in the same period with a more human ratio of 35 to 7. Both WAR versions give Skubal an edge of more than a full win over Crochet. Crochet has a slight edge in added win probability, but Skubal tops the American League in added championship probability.How it could change: Skubal needs to keep doing what he’s doing, because the margins are narrow enough for Crochet to surpass him. Every start from here on out is crucial for both pitchers.Prediction: Skubal should maintain his epic pace. Unless Skubal falters, there doesn’t seem to be any opportunity for Crochet to break through, no matter how well he pitches.

National League

Main contenders: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cristopher Sanchez, PhilliesOther contenders: Zack Wheeler, Phillies; Freddy Peralta, Brewers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers; Nick Pivetta, Padres, Ranger Suarez, Phillies; Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds; Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants; Jesus Luzardo, Phillies, Nick Lodolo, Reds.Race Analysis: Betting markets see Skenes with almost similar dominance to Ohtani in this race. The metrics see it as a tie. Both versions of WAR give Skenes a slight advantage over Sanchez. Skenes has an advantage in the aggregated win probability over Sanchez, but Sanchez’s aggregated championship probability total leaves Skenes in the dust. Skenes has an effectiveness below 2.00, but his advantage in FIP is narrow, which explains why he and Sanchez are close in WAR. Their volumes are similar.How it could change: If both starters faltered, Peralta would still have a chance to sneak in. But they would have to fight because volume (i.e., innings pitched) is a significant factor in the current pitching environment. Skenes and Sanchez have separated themselves in terms of combining quantity and quality.Prediction: Skenes is the best pitcher in the National League. The Pirates haven’t reduced Skenes’ usual workload, so if he makes the rest of his starts and maintains that ERA below 2.00, Sanchez faces a tough battle.

Rookie of the Year

American LeagueTop contenders: Nick Kurtz, Athletics vs. Roman Anthony, Red SoxOther Contenders: Jacob Wilson, Athletics; Noah Cameron, Royals, Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox; Colson Montgomery, Chicago White Sox; Kyle Teel, White Sox; Luke Keaschall, Twins; Mike Vasil, White Sox; Jack Leiter, Rangers, Will Warren, Yankees, Shane Smith, White Sox.Race Analysis: Anthony is on the list for exhibition purposes only, because this race is already over. Kurtz was the heavy favorite, but the injury that is expected to keep Anthony out for the rest of the regular season sealed the deal. Kurtz had a four-home run game against Houston on July 25, in which he had six hits, scored six runs, and tied the record for total bases in a single game. His 1.021 OPS ranks fifth among American or National League rookies since 1900. His 162-game line currently is .301/.397/.624 with 47 home runs, 118 RBIs, and 123 runs. Kurtz is 22 years old.How it could change: It’s hard to see any scenario that doesn’t end with Kurtz becoming the Athletics’ ninth Rookie of the Year.Prediction: Kurtz in a unanimous vote.

National League

Main contenders: Isaac Collins, Brewers vs. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta BravesOther contenders: Caleb Durbin, Brewers; Cade Horton, Cubs, Jakob Marsee, Miami Marlins; Chad Patrick, Brewers; Braxton Ashcraft, Pirates, Matt Shaw, Cubs, Jack Dreyer, Dodgers; Hurston Waldrep, Braves, Nolan McLean, Mets.Race Analysis: The markets recently propelled Horton to favorite status, but they don’t seem very convinced about it. This race has been a mixed bag all season. The White Sox have gone all-in on rookie deployment this rebuilding season, but the Brewers are the better baseball team. Three Brewers rookies are in the top 10 above, and Jacob Misiorowski isn’t far off the pace. Collins, as the leading representative of the best class of rookies in the National League, is deserving for now. Horton is the most outstanding pitcher on the planet. The markets have realized how good Horton is, and if all current trends continue, he will probably win. In his last nine outings, Horton is 6-1 with an ERA of 0.77.Prediction: Horton has allowed less than one run every other start since the All-Star break. If he keeps up anything like that pace, he’ll win. Otherwise, give it to a Brewer.

Manager of the Year

American LeagueMain contenders: A.J. Hinch, Tigers vs. John Schneider, Blue JaysOther contenders: Joe Espada, Astros; Warren Schaeffer/Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels; Stephen Vogt, GuardiansRace analysis: The situation seems like a coin flip between Hinch and Schneider at the moment.How it could change: It will likely come down to which team gets the best overall seed in the American League group. The end of the season will determine this race. Hinch’s club has a hold on the American League Central Division title, while Schneider’s Blue Jays have a lot of work to do to keep the Yankees and Red Sox at bay.Prediction: Hinch’s Tigers will secure that top seed and give him the edge in the awards voting. It would be his first Manager of the Year award after five previous top-five finishes in the voting.

National League

Main contenders: Pat Murphy, Brewers vs. Clayton McCullough, MarlinsOther contenders: Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals; Rob Thomson, Phillies; Craig Counsell, CubsRace Analysis: Murphy will win his second consecutive National League Manager of the Year award. The Brewers have exceeded their preseason projections and are likely to enter the playoffs as the top overall seed. They are 26-17 in one-run games. They have all those rookies. They play a team-oriented style based on contributions from several anonymous role players.How it could change: The only way this outlook changes is a Brewers collapse combined with an epic Cubs finish that allows them to overcome their large National League Central Division deficit and win the division. Otherwise, Murphy will again overshadow the man he coached at Notre Dame and later worked with as a bench coach in Milwaukee.Prediction: An easy win for Murphy.