Atlanta’s Dynasty at Stake: What Went Wrong?
Between 1991 and 2005, the Atlanta Braves dominated the league, securing 14 divisional titles in 15 seasons. In a more recent span, between 2018 and 2024, they achieved six divisional titles in seven years, including a World Series in 2021 and consecutive 100-win seasons in 2022 and 2023. Their 2023 lineup was historic, being the first team to record a .500 slugging percentage.
Despite the successes, the last three postseasons ended in early defeats. The Braves built a team envied by other organizations, with young talent and long-term contracts for key players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Sean Murphy and Reynaldo Lopez. With Acuña and Strider recovering from injuries, expectations for the current season were high.
However, the season has been a disaster. The Braves started with an 0-6 road trip, scoring only 14 runs in six games against the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although they managed to get above .500 in May, a losing streak in June sunk them. Despite an improvement in August, the season seems to be heading for its first losing record since 2017.What Failed?
Going from 104 wins to a losing season in two years is unusual, but not unprecedented. Since 1961, 76 teams have won 100 games, and 18 of them had a losing season in the following two years. The 2022 New York Mets won 101 games and had a losing record the following season, although they recovered to make the playoffs in 2024. But that Mets team was a roster of older players and free agents. The Braves seemed to have the foundation to obtain more division titles.Pitching Injuries and Free Agents
The 2024 Braves’ rotation, led by Chris Sale, was excellent, ranking among the league’s best in ERA and innings pitched. The return of Strider and a full season from Spencer Schwellenbach were expected. Added to this were Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez, which seemed to ensure a solid rotation, despite the departure of Max Fried and Charlie Morton as free agents.
Fried and Morton’s departure forced the replacement of 59 starts and nearly 340 innings. Injuries to López, Sale, and Strider, along with the inexperience of Schwellenbach and Holmes, increased the risk. Although the Braves had Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver, all five projected starters suffered injuries. López only pitched one game before undergoing shoulder surgery, Strider didn’t show the same performance, Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery, and Elder had an ERA of 6.12. The rotation was forced to turn to pitchers like Carlos Carrasco, Cal Quantrill, and Erick Fedde, leading the Braves to 23rd in rotation ERA.
By 2026, the Braves expect the return of all their starters, except Smith-Shawver. With the addition of Hurston Waldrep, the team could have a stellar rotation. A veteran starter will likely be sought in free agency.Jurickson Profar’s Sanction
The 80-game suspension of Jurickson Profar, signed for three years and $42 million, complicated the situation. With Acuña not returning until the end of May, the team’s depth was put to the test. Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic didn’t perform, and Alex Verdugo underperformed. The lack of depth became evident in other areas, with Orlando Arcia and Nick Allen struggling at the plate.Widespread Offensive Decline
Several key players have not maintained their 2023 performance. Harris, Olson, Albies, Riley, and Ozuna’s statistics have decreased significantly. The 2023 Braves scored 947 runs, but in 2025, they are on pace to score 714, ranking 15th in runs scored.
By 2026, the Braves will need introspection. The offense, with Acuña and Profar in top form, will need improvements. Harris and Albies’ OBP problems are concerning. Ozuna will need to be replaced.Problems in the Bullpen
Injuries in the rotation added to the bullpen’s problems, especially at the beginning. Raisel Iglesias struggled, and although he improved, the bullpen hasn’t been as strong as in previous seasons.
Iglesias will be a free agent, and the Braves will look for a new closer. Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Devin Williams, Ryan Helsley, and Robert Suarez are possible options.Verdict: The Braves Can Recover in 2026
Optimism for 2026 is based on the core of players in their prime. With the health of the pitchers and the incorporation of young talents, the Braves have the potential to return to contention.
