Aaron Judge: HR record and MVP? Yankees experts' predictions

Aaron Judge: Will He Be Able to Keep Up the Pace?

Aaron Judge, the star of the New York Yankees, has had a spectacular start to the season, establishing himself as one of the most outstanding players in MLB. After a season in which he won the American League Most Valuable Player award, Judge has begun the 2025 season with an impressive performance, averaging .412 and accumulating 4.0 WAR in just a quarter of the season.

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Aaron Judge: Will He Be Able to Keep Up the Pace?Expert Analysis

At this pace of play, the question everyone is asking is: Can Judge maintain this level? Will he surpass his own home run record in the American League? Will he achieve the Triple Crown and repeat as unanimous MVP? We analyze the possibilities.

Expert Analysis

Based on Judge’s current pace, our MLB experts have analyzed different scenarios and made predictions about the future of this amazing season.

Batting Average

Judge’s xBA (expected batting average) is .362. Will his actual batting average for the season be above or below that figure?

Jorge Castillo: Below. Since 2010, only one player has batted .350 or higher in a full season: Luis Arraez. Maintaining such a high average is extremely difficult nowadays.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Below. Judge has batted .340 since he changed his batting stance last season. Although he has exceeded .362 in some months, .362 is too high, but .340 is still an impressive average.
Bradford Doolittle

Jeff Passan: Below. Judge’s current batting average is .410 with a .481 average on balls in play. Judge’s strikeout rate (20.9%) limits his ability to maintain such a high average.
Jeff Passan

David Schoenfield: Below. The difficulty of batting so high in this era is considerable. The last right-handed batter to hit .360 was Magglio Ordoñez in 2007.
David Schoenfield

OPS+

Judge’s current OPS+ is 257. Will he finish the year above or below his maximum of 225 set last year?

Jorge Castillo: Above. Judge would have to experience a significant drop to not surpass last season’s number.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Above. His expected stats support an even higher OPS+ than in 2024.
Bradford Doolittle

Jeff Passan: Above. This is the best version of Judge in his illustrious 10-year career. With offense in the league being weak, a number like OPS+ is susceptible to being exploited.
Jeff Passan

David Schoenfield: Above. Seems slump-proof. Even when he had a stretch in April where he only hit one home run in 20 games, he managed to bat .425/.528/.546.
David Schoenfield

Home Runs

Judge is projected for 56.5 home runs. Will he surpass that figure?

Jorge Castillo: Above. The cold weather and rain have affected the Yankees at the start of the season. When the weather improves, Judge will take advantage of it.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Above. I hope his batted ball distribution approaches his career norms, which means more fly balls.
Bradford Doolittle

Jeff Passan: Above. He hasn’t had a home run streak yet, and when that happens, he’ll be in a position to approach the 62 he hit in 2022.
Jeff Passan

David Schoenfield: Above. He averages 10 home runs per month, and half of May is still left. With 5 more home runs in May and 40 from June to September, he would reach 59.
David Schoenfield

WAR

Judge has already recorded 4.0 FanGraphs WAR in 2025. Will he surpass his career high of 11.2 from last season?

Jorge Castillo: Above. If he stays healthy, he will threaten to surpass Bonds’ 11.9 WAR season in 2004 and enter the top 10 all-time.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Above. Playing exclusively in right field should boost his fielding metrics and offset any hit he might take in positional value. He just needs to stay healthy and he’ll reach 12 wins, at least.
Bradford Doolittle

Jeff Passan: Above. The offense will always be there. The question is the marginal elements that can win those differentiating WAR tenths. It would be his third season with an 11 or more WAR in four years.
Jeff Passan

David Schoenfield: Above. He’s on pace for almost 14 WAR. Seems slump-proof. Above 11.2 WAR.
David Schoenfield

Triple Crown and MVP

Judge currently leads the league in all three Triple Crown categories. Will he finish at the top of the American League in more or less than 2.5 of them?

Jorge Castillo: Above. If Judge stays healthy, he will achieve one of the best seasons in history and will come with a Triple Crown. The batting average is the biggest challenge, and the RBI totals always depend on his teammates being on base.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Over. As long as teams don’t do reckless things, like walking Judge when someone is on base, I’m sticking with the over, even though winning a Triple Crown is incredibly difficult.
Bradford Doolittle

Jeff Passan: Below. He will lead in home runs. The batting average element is concerning, and RBIs depend heavily on the lineup. If Judge is in the third spot more often, that element becomes less concerning.
Jeff Passan

David Schoenfield: Triple Crown. He may not drive in 144 runs like last year, but these Yankees are scoring at a higher rate.
David Schoenfield

Judge is the favorite for the AL MVP. Will there be more or less than 0.5 votes for someone other than Judge as the AL winner?

Jorge Castillo: Below. Judge has simply been very good. He is above his peers. It’s his award to lose.
Jorge Castillo

Bradford Doolittle: Below. If I had to choose a team from scratch, I would still choose Bobby Witt Jr. But if Judge doesn’t get injured, it will be a unanimous choice.
Bradford Doolittle