F1 2026: Driver market in turmoil, who will race where?

The Formula 1 Seat Dance: Who Will Move in 2026?

The Formula 1 summer break always brings with it the question that dominates half the year: who is going where? Traditionally, the August break marks the beginning of the “silly season”, similar to the transfer window in other sports. Unlike those sports, there is no defined deadline for a driver to decide to change teams. For example, Lewis Hamilton signed his contract with Ferrari for 2025 before even starting the 2024 pre-season with Mercedes, but it is not surprising that the man with the most records has broken conventions.

The season restart is often hectic. This year, a double European event, the Dutch Grand Prix (August 31) and the Italian Grand Prix (September 7), promise to be dominated by conversations about the 2026 signings. This year’s “silly season” has a new flavor, with the incorporation of a completely new team, Cadillac, to the grid next year, which means two seats available and the expansion of the field from 20 to 22 drivers.

Teams with confirmed lineups for 2026:

• McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
• Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
• Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
• Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
• Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto

Traditionally, the weeks and months around August are the busiest. Until recently, there seemed to be a bottleneck slowing everything down: the future of Max Verstappen. Toto Wolff confirmed the Silver Arrows’ interest in the four-time world champion. Verstappen’s confirmation that he will stay with Red Bull until 2026 is the obvious starting point for analyzing the current state of affairs.

Mercedes

Now that Verstappen is in third position in the championship during the summer break, without activating the performance clause in his contract that would allow him to leave Red Bull, the identity of Mercedes’ driver lineup for next season seems clear. Russell, whose contract expires at the end of the season, did not have a new agreement on the table when he left the Hungarian Grand Prix for the summer break, but the process of signing an extension is underway. The duration of that extension is something to consider. Sources in the pilot market expect Mercedes to offer Russell a one-year contract to keep the possibility of signing Verstappen next season open, and although Russell wants a longer deal, his situation is complicated by the fact that he both races for Mercedes and is managed by them, which limits his influence in the negotiations. Rookie teammate Kimi Antonelli is expected to be retained for 2026. With the growing internal belief that Mercedes will be competitive under the new regulations to be introduced for 2026, Wolff finds himself in a somewhat luxurious position. Giving Russell and Antonelli short-term contracts will give the team flexibility next year in what will likely be a more open driver market. Hamilton’s deal with Ferrari expires at the end of next season, and any departure or retirement of the seven-time world champion could create a domino effect throughout the grid, while Verstappen is likely to want to leave again if Red Bull remains uncompetitive within 12 months.

Cadillac

With the Verstappen-Mercedes situation now clear, the arrival of Cadillac, which will become the eleventh team on the grid next season, will dominate attention in the “silly season”, with two seats available in a completely new project. The American team, overseen by General Motors and led by former Manor boss Graeme Lowdon, has made it clear that announcing its drivers has been a low priority this year, as it focuses on building the operation from scratch.

Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas top Cadillac’s wish list ahead of their F1 debut in 2026.Lowdon has dedicated himself to speaking with as many drivers as possible since the team’s entry was confirmed in March, but two have stood out from the beginning. Although Cadillac wanted an American driver on board when their interest in joining the grid was first made public, the reality of Formula 1 has made this option less likely. Given the experience that will be key for the new team, it is understood that the race-winning free agents Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas top the team’s wish list for the new season. Sources have reported that Cadillac approached Pérez almost as soon as they could after he was fired by Red Bull last year, while talks with Bottas have been ongoing for some time. News about one of them could even arrive before the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August.

Bottas joked about a possible move to Cadillac

There could be an unexpected option for Bottas, and if Cadillac fails to sign one or both of their main targets, it could be difficult to find the same experience. Another obvious race winner has ruled himself out: Daniel Ricciardo has reportedly considered himself retired from motor racing altogether.

There are other alternative options to Pérez and Bottas. Lowdon also manages former Sauber driver Zhou Guanyu, who has gained experience as a Ferrari reserve driver this year, but has also spoken very highly of former Haas driver Mick Schumacher, son of seven-time champion Michael, who has been pushing hard for another chance in F1. Schumacher has been out of F1 since being fired by Haas at the end of 2023. As for Americans, options are scarce. IndyCar’s Colton Herta was touted as a favorite when Cadillac’s bid, then spearheaded by Andretti, was first made public, but he has distanced himself from the opportunity and seems unlikely to end the year with the IndyCar championship result required for the superlicense points he would need to be eligible for an F1 seat. Formula 2 championship contender Jak Crawford is a possibility and said last month that he would consider himself a favorite if he could win the development series title this season; he is currently second in the standings.

Alpine

Pierre Gasly has scored 100% of Alpine’s points this season, which highlights not only how much he has evolved since leaving Red Bull, but also how much his team has struggled to find a suitable teammate in the other car. Jack Doohan was put under immediate pressure when Alpine signed Franco Colapinto as a reserve driver before the season began, and the Australian driver did not deliver. Doohan was replaced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, but Colapinto hasn’t done much better. The Argentinian driver is on loan from Williams, where he became an overnight sensation as a replacement for Logan Sargeant last year, but the shine of that campaign has quickly faded with a series of very poor results and accidents since he made the jump. However, his financial influence has not diminished. Colapinto arrived at Alpine with significant backing from a group of Latin American companies, which has been vital in his rise to the main team. There have been conflicting reports about Colapinto’s position in the team. Publicly, Alpine’s executive advisor, Flavio Briatore, has said that the Argentinian’s performance must improve rapidly if he wants to stay in the seat, and the team was linked last month with a mid-season move for Bottas. Such a move would likely tie the Finnish driver to 2026 as well, and it wouldn’t be an exaggeration given Bottas’ long connection with Mercedes, which will supply engines to Alpine from next year, but that seems to depend on whether he takes the Cadillac seat. Reserve driver Paul Aron could also have the opportunity to prove himself at the end of the year. Before the break, sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking suggested that Colapinto could stay beyond 2025, regardless of whether his performance improves, given the importance of the money he brings.

Red Bull and Racing Bulls

You had almost forgotten about this one, right? While much of the attention in the last two months focused on Verstappen, it’s worth remembering that the future of his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, is not clear beyond this season. Tsunoda was promoted to the team instead of Liam Lawson after only two races this season, but he has struggled brutally in the seat alongside the four-time world champion.

The imminent end of Red Bull’s association with Honda, which gave the team a discount on engine supply as part of the deal to promote Tsunoda in the first place, made it unlikely that the Japanese driver would continue beyond 2025, but that picture is harder to understand now that Christian Horner no longer leads the team. Horner had been one of the biggest obstacles in Tsunoda’s internal progression, but the former’s replacement, Laurent Mekies, is a big fan, as he worked with Tsunoda as team principal of Racing Bulls last year and at the beginning of 2025.

Interestingly, Tsunoda’s difficult situation could also be favored by what has become a consensus in F1: Red Bull has built a horribly difficult car to drive for anyone other than Verstappen. The fact that Gasly, Pérez, Lawson and Alex Albon have failed alongside the world champion before Tsunoda, who was sublime in 2024 for the junior team, has only reinforced the feeling that Red Bull needs to work on the car as well as the driver. The technically intelligent Mekies has already hinted at something similar, which means that Tsunoda could have a lifeline to stay long-term.

Red Bull junior driver Arvid Lindblad, 18, seems to be on a rocket ship through the lower categories. The Briton became the youngest F2 winner by winning in Jeddah as a rookie earlier this year. However, it has been a mixed season, and Red Bull might be reluctant to promote him too soon. If the path to Formula 1 is the one they choose for the exciting teenager, there is an obvious scenario. Sources within Red Bull have said that the only thing almost certain within the company’s two F1 teams at the moment is that Lawson will not get another chance in the senior team, which would suggest that he would be the one in the firing line if there was a strong desire to promote Lindblad in 2026. Mekies could also offer Lawson a lifeline similar to Tsunoda’s. Mekies managed Lawson when he replaced Ricciardo last year, and it was his form at the end of the season that earned the New Zealander his short-lived promotion to Red Bull; Mekies was also the man who waited for Lawson with open arms when he was demoted. Sources close to Lawson have said that the Kiwi has only recently shown glimpses of his former self on and off the track, suggesting that the blow to his confidence was enormous. With Mekies now in a position that should have influence on the company’s broader driver decisions, the prospect of Lindblad having another year to develop and Lawson having one more season (his first uninterrupted F1 campaign at that) doesn’t seem as far-fetched as it might have been a few months ago. Of course, if Tsunoda were to be fired at the end of the year anyway, then everything would change: the likely scenario would be that Isack Hadjar would move up and Lindblad would partner with Lawson in the junior team. With no big names on the market and a desire to rebuild both the perception of Red Bull’s driver decisions and the strength of its overall production line, don’t expect to see hasty decisions here: the Austrian company can wait before deciding the best way to proceed.