F1 2026: Driver market in turmoil, who will change teams?

Formula 1 in Recess: Key Movements in the Drivers’ Market

The summer break in Formula 1 always brings with it one of the most important questions: Who will race for whom? Traditionally, the August break marks the beginning of the “silly season”, or what in other sports would be the transfer market. Unlike other sports, in F1 there is no defined deadline for a driver to decide to change teams.

A notable example is Lewis Hamilton, who signed his contract with Ferrari for 2025 before even starting pre-season with Mercedes in 2024. However, the return of the season is often hectic. This year, the European double header, the Dutch Grand Prix (August 31) and the Italian Grand Prix (September 7), promise to be dominated by negotiations for 2026. This year’s “silly season” has a new flavor, with the incorporation of a new team, Cadillac, which will join the grid next year, meaning two additional available seats, expanding the field from 20 to 22 drivers.

Confirmed Teams for 2026

• McLaren: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri
• Ferrari: Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton
• Aston Martin: Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll
• Haas: Esteban Ocon and Ollie Bearman
• Audi: Nico Hülkenberg and Gabriel Bortoleto

Traditionally, the weeks and months before and after August are the busiest. Until recently, a major factor seemed to slow down the pace: the future of Max Verstappen. Toto Wolff, Mercedes team principal, confirmed the team’s interest in the four-time world champion. A signing of this magnitude would have had repercussions throughout the grid. Other teams were waiting in the shadows, ready to act if Verstappen’s move to Mercedes left George Russell available. In the end, Verstappen confirmed that he will remain at Red Bull until 2026. This leads us to analyze the current situation.

Mercedes

Now that Verstappen has entered the summer break in third position in the championship, without activating the performance clause in his contract that would allow him to leave Red Bull, the Mercedes driver lineup for next season seems clear. Russell, whose contract expires at the end of the season, did not have a new agreement on the table when he left the Hungarian Grand Prix for the summer break, but the process to sign an extension is underway. The duration of that extension is an aspect to consider. Sources from the pilots’ market expect Mercedes to offer Russell a one-year contract to keep open the possibility of signing Verstappen next season. While Russell is looking for a longer deal, his situation is complicated by the fact that he both races for Mercedes and is managed by them, which limits his influence in the negotiations. His teammate, rookie Kimi Antonelli, has struggled recently, but is expected to be retained for 2026. With the growing internal belief that Mercedes will be competitive under the new regulations coming into effect in 2026, Wolff finds himself in an advantageous position. Granting Russell and Antonelli short-term deals will give the team flexibility next year in a driver market that is likely to be more open. Hamilton’s contract with Ferrari expires at the end of next season, and any departure or retirement of the seven-time world champion could create a domino effect on the grid, while Verstappen is likely to want to leave again if Red Bull remains uncompetitive within 12 months.

Cadillac

With Verstappen and Mercedes’ situation resolved, the arrival of Cadillac, which will become the eleventh team on the grid next season, will dominate attention in the “silly season”, with two seats available in a completely new project. The American team, overseen by General Motors and led by former Manor boss Graeme Lowdon, has made it clear that announcing its drivers has been a low priority this year, as it focuses on building the operation from scratch.

Lowdon has set out to speak to as many drivers as possible since the team’s entry was confirmed in March, but two have stood out from the beginning. Although Cadillac wanted an American driver on board when their interest in joining the grid was made public, the reality of Formula 1 has made this option less likely. With experience as the key for the new team, it is understood that the race-winning free agents Sergio Pérez and Valtteri Bottas are at the top of the team’s wish list for the new season. Sources have reported that Cadillac approached Pérez almost as soon as they could after he was let go by Red Bull last year, while talks with Bottas have been ongoing for some time. News about one of them could even arrive before the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August.

Valtteri Bottas joked about a switch to Cadillac earlier this year in a viral clip in which he approached a parked Cadillac road car and commented on how nice the seat was. The Finnish driver, who won 10 races in five seasons at Mercedes, hasn’t had a race seat since leaving Sauber at the end of last year.

There could be an unexpected option for Bottas (see below), and if Cadillac fails to secure one or both of its main targets, it could be complicated to find the same experience. Another obvious race winner has ruled himself out: Daniel Ricciardo has reportedly considered himself retired from motor racing altogether.

There are other backup options to Pérez and Bottas. Lowdon also manages former Sauber driver Zhou Guanyu, who has gained experience as a Ferrari reserve driver this year, but has also spoken very highly of former Haas driver Mick Schumacher, son of seven-time champion Michael, who has been pushing hard for another opportunity in F1. Schumacher has been out of F1 since being fired by Haas at the end of 2023.

As for the Americans, options are scarce. IndyCar’s Colton Herta was touted as a prime candidate when Cadillac’s bid, then led by Andretti, was first made public, but he has distanced himself from the opportunity and seems unlikely to end the year with the IndyCar championship finish required for the superlicense points he would need to be eligible for an F1 seat. Formula 2 championship contender Jak Crawford is a possibility and said last month that he would consider himself a prime candidate if he could win the development series title this season; he is currently second in the standings.

Alpine

Pierre Gasly has scored 100% of Alpine’s points this season, highlighting not only how much he has developed since leaving Red Bull, but also how much his team has struggled to find a suitable teammate in the other car. Jack Doohan was put under immediate pressure when Alpine signed Franco Colapinto as a reserve driver before the season began, and the Australian driver did not deliver. Doohan was replaced at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, but Colapinto has not had better results. The Argentinian driver is on loan from Williams, where he became an overnight sensation as a replacement for Logan Sargeant last year, but the shine of that campaign has quickly faded with a series of very poor results and accidents since he made the jump. However, his financial influence has not diminished. Colapinto arrived at Alpine with significant backing from a group of Latin American companies, which has been vital in his rise to the main team. There have been conflicting reports about Colapinto’s position in the team. Publicly, Alpine’s executive advisor, Flavio Briatore, has said that the Argentinian’s performance must improve rapidly if he wants to stay in the seat, and the team was linked last month with a mid-season move for Bottas. Such a move would likely tie the Finnish driver in 2026 as well, and it wouldn’t be an exaggeration given Bottas’ long connection with Mercedes, which will supply engines to Alpine from next year, but that seems to depend on whether he takes the Cadillac seat. Reserve driver Paul Aron could also have the opportunity to prove himself at the end of the year. Before the break, sources with knowledge of the team’s thinking suggested that Colapinto could stay beyond 2025, regardless of whether his performance improves, given the importance of the money he brings.

Red Bull and Racing Bulls

Almost forgot about this one? While much of the attention in the last two months has focused on Verstappen, it’s worth remembering that the future of his teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, is not clear beyond this season. Tsunoda was promoted to the team instead of Liam Lawson after only two races this season, but has had brutal struggles in the seat alongside the four-time world champion.

The imminent end of Red Bull’s association with Honda, which gave the team a discount on engine supply as part of the deal to promote Tsunoda in the first place, made it unlikely that the Japanese driver would continue beyond 2025, but that picture is harder to understand now that Christian Horner no longer leads the team. Horner had been one of the biggest obstacles to Tsunoda’s internal progress, but the former’s replacement, Laurent Mekies, is a big fan, as he worked with Tsunoda as team principal of Racing Bulls last year and in early 2025. Interestingly, Tsunoda’s difficult situation could also be favored by what has become a consensus in F1: Red Bull has built a horribly difficult car to drive for anyone other than Verstappen. The fact that Gasly, Pérez, Lawson and Alex Albon have failed alongside the world champion before Tsunoda, who was sublime in 2024 for the junior team, has only reinforced the feeling that Red Bull needs to work on the car as well as the driver. The technically inclined Mekies has already hinted at this, which means that Tsunoda may well have a path to stay long-term. Red Bull junior driver Arvid Lindblad, 18, seems to be on a rocket ship in the lower categories. The Briton became the youngest winner in F2 by winning in Jeddah as a rookie earlier this year. However, it has been a mixed season, and Red Bull might be reluctant to promote him too soon. If the path to Formula 1 is the one they choose for the exciting teenager, there is an obvious scenario. Sources within Red Bull have said that the only thing almost certain within the company’s two F1 teams at the moment is that Lawson will not get another chance in the senior team, which would suggest that he would be the one on the chopping block if there was a strong desire to promote Lindblad in 2026. Mekies could also offer Lawson a similar path to Tsunoda. Mekies managed Lawson when he replaced Ricciardo last year, and it was his form at the end of the season that earned the New Zealander his fleeting promotion to Red Bull; Mekies was also the man who waited for Lawson with open arms when he was demoted. Sources close to Lawson have said that the Kiwi has only recently shown glimpses of his former self on and off the track, suggesting that the blow to confidence was enormous. With Mekies now in a position that should have influence on the company’s broader driver decisions, the prospect of Lindblad having another year to develop and Lawson having one more season (his first uninterrupted F1 campaign) doesn’t seem as far-fetched as it might have been a few months ago.

Of course, if Tsunoda were to be fired anyway at the end of the year, then everything would change: the likely scenario would be that Isack Hadjar would move up and Lindblad would partner with Lawson in the junior team. With no big names on the market and the desire to rebuild both the perception of Red Bull’s driver decisions and the strength of its overall production line, don’t expect to see hasty decisions here: the Austrian company can take its time before deciding the best way to proceed.