Australia vs. India: A Crucial Duel with Major Implications
The series between Australia and India, on its own, is a high-caliber event. However, with the final of the World Test Championship (WTC) in June on the horizon, the clash takes on even greater relevance for both teams.
New Zealand’s recent 2-0 victory against the West Indies has positioned them in third place in the championship table. If they manage to replicate that result against Pakistan, both Australia and India will have to work hard to stay above them.
We analyze what this series, and the home series against England, mean for their qualification aspirations.
India
Series played: 4, Points: 360, Percentage of points: 75
India has two series left in the current cycle: against Australia and England. Both are four-match series, which means the point allocation is the same: 30 points for a win and 10 for a draw.
If New Zealand gets the maximum points in their series against Pakistan, their total will rise to 420, and their points percentage to 70. This means that India’s goal is to exceed 70% to stay ahead of New Zealand.
To achieve this, India needs at least 150 points out of the 240 available in these two series. This can happen in two ways: if India wins five matches, or if it wins four (120) and draws three (30).
Given India’s strong home record, they will have a good chance of getting the maximum points against England. This means they will need at least one win, or three draws, in the four matches against Australia to reach that target of 150 points.
For example, if India loses to Australia by a margin of 1-2, they will need 110 points from the series against England. Since a win will award 30 points and a draw 10, the only way to reach 110 is by winning all four matches.
Australia
Series played: 3, Points: 296, Percentage of points: 82.22
Australia currently has 296 points and needs to surpass 420 to have a points percentage above 70, if the series against South Africa takes place. If that series is canceled, its goal will be to surpass 336 points. Given that the series against South Africa is expected to be three matches, there will be 40 points available for a win and 13 for a draw.
Despite numerous injury concerns, Australia remains in a strong position, thanks to the points it has already accumulated. If the series against India ends 2-2, Australia will have 356 points and a percentage of 74.17. From there, even a 1-0 series against South Africa will propel them to 422 points, slightly surpassing New Zealand. If they lose 1-2 against India, Australia will need a 2-0 victory against South Africa to stay above 70%.
