New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has given them a solid chance of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand finished the series one step away from the number 1 position in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory by innings in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some drama. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s predictor tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused confusion in the cricket community. This appeared to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia holds the number 1 position with 116.461 ranking points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could increase their lead if they win the home series against India, but the two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will end up with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Tests (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the criteria for classification from absolute points to a percentage of points played. In other words, points per series played. Australia currently tops the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia is also scheduled for a series of three Tests in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.By the time India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played.
Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand. In terms of rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
