New Zealand close to the World Test Championship final
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies gives them a solid chance of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was a step away from reaching the number 1 position in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. The situation generated some initial confusion, as the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table for several hours after the match. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia remains in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia will look to consolidate their lead in the home series against India. Meanwhile, New Zealand’s two wins over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will finish with 420 points from five series. This implies that India will need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final, which will be played at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to modify the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played.Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%.
If New Zealand wins both matches against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points at stake.When India finishes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
