The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies in the test series has strengthened their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was on the verge of reaching the top spot in the test ranking, finishing just 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
After the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused some confusion. However, this turned out to be an error, as the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia is in first place with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India. With two wins over the West Indies, New Zealand has 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan, they will finish with 420 points from five series.
This would mean that India needs five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to change the criteria for absolute points classification to a percentage of points played, that is, points per series played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points disputed.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining victories will be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will put them above New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
