New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies in the cricket series has boosted their aspirations of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC). This final will take place at Lord’s in June 2021. After their victory in Wellington, New Zealand was very close to reaching the number 1 position in the Test rankings, being only 0.086 points behind Australia. The outcome of the match was marked by some uncertainty. For several hours, the ICC’s predictive tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused confusion. However, the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia maintained first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand had 116.375. The predictive tool finally reflected this ranking. Australia could cement its leadership if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points, obtained in four series of the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will add 420 points in five series. This would leave India needing to secure five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to score points in a series in Bangladesh. However, due to the suspension of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, switching from absolute points to a percentage of points played, i.e., points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they draw 2-2 against India, they will maintain the lead with a percentage of 74.17%. If they lose 1-2, their percentage will decrease to 70%. New Zealand, if they win their two Test matches against Pakistan, will finish with 84 points per series played, which is equivalent to 70% of the points played.By the time India finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series, totaling 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to overtake New Zealand, which has 84 points per series, or 70% of the points played.
Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws, 10 points. They need five victories, or four victories and three draws, to surpass New Zealand. Regarding the rankings, depending on the results of the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
