New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Championship (WTC), which will be held in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand was very close to reaching the number 1 position in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was not without moments of uncertainty. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, which caused confusion. The ICC clarified via a tweet that Australia is in first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could consolidate its leadership if it wins the home series against India. For its part, the two victories over the West Indies led New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan, it will finish with 420 points from five series. This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final at Lord’s. In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to earn points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played. Currently, Australia leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test match series scheduled in South Africa. If New Zealand wins its two Tests against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points played.
When India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five wins or four wins and three draws will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
