New Zealand advances to the final of the World Test Cricket Championship
The recent victory of New Zealand over the West Indies has given them a real chance of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand finished the series very close to the number 1 position in the Test rankings: they are only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their innings victory in Wellington on Monday.
However, the news was not without drama. For several hours after the match ended, the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top of the table, causing some confusion in the cricket community. This, however, appeared to be an error because the ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia is at number 1 with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia will capitalize on that slender advantage if they win the home series against India, but two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points from four series in the current WTC cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.
If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later in their summer, they will end up with 420 points from five series.
This will leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, from their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final to be played at Lord’s in the English summer.
In a world without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to go to win points in a series in Bangladesh, but because some series could not be played, the ICC had to change the qualification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. Or, in other words, points per series played.
Australia currently tops the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will still lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. Australia also has a three-match Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, it will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points at stake.
When India, currently with 360 points from four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to pass 504 points to surpass New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. Five victories or four victories and three draws will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
On the ranking front, depending on how the India vs. Australia series and the New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could increase its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
