New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their aspirations in the World Test Championship (WTC), with the final scheduled for June 2021 at Lord’s.
New Zealand was very close to the top spot in the Test ranking, just 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington.
The situation initially generated some confusion, as the ICC’s prediction tool showed New Zealand at the top for several hours. However, the ICC clarified that Australia maintains the first position with 116.461 points, while New Zealand has 116.375.
Australia could consolidate its leadership position if it wins the home series against India. For their part, New Zealand’s two victories over the West Indies gave them 300 WTC points from four series in the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021.If New Zealand repeats the 2-0 result against Pakistan in their summer, they will add 420 points from five series.
This means India will need five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to prevent New Zealand from reaching the WTC final at Lord’s.
In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to obtain points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC modified the classification criteria, going from absolute points to a percentage of points disputed, that is, points per series played.
Currently, Australia leads the WTC table with 82.2% of the points won. If they draw 2-2 against India, they will continue to lead with 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70%. Australia also has a three-Test series scheduled in South Africa.
If New Zealand wins its two Test matches against Pakistan, they will finish with 84 points per series played or 70% of the points at stake.
When India completes its series against Australia and England, they will have played six series or 720 points. They will need to surpass 504 points to exceed New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played.
Each remaining Test victory will be worth 30 points, and draws will earn them 10 points. They will need five victories or four victories and three draws to surpass New Zealand.
Regarding the rankings, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series unfold, Australia could consolidate its lead at number 1 or cede ground to New Zealand.
