New Zealand Advances to the Final of the World Test Cricket Championship
New Zealand’s recent victory over the West Indies has boosted their chances of reaching the final of the World Test Cricket Championship (WTC), which will be played in June 2021 at Lord’s. New Zealand finished the series very close to the top spot in the Test ranking, being only 0.086 points behind Australia, after their victory in Wellington. However, the news was accompanied by some confusion. For several hours after the match, the ICC’s prediction tool placed New Zealand at the top of the table, which generated uncertainty in the cricket community. The ICC clarified in a tweet that Australia occupies first place with 116.461 rating points, while New Zealand has 116.375. Australia could extend their lead if they win the home series against India, but the two wins over the West Indies took New Zealand to 300 WTC points in four series of the current cycle, which ends on March 31, 2021. If they repeat the 2-0 result against Pakistan later on, they will finish with 420 points in five series. This would leave India needing five wins, or four wins and three draws, in their last eight Test matches (away against Australia and at home against England) to deny New Zealand a place in the WTC final.In a scenario without a pandemic, New Zealand would also have had to obtain points in a series in Bangladesh, but due to the cancellation of some series, the ICC had to change the classification criteria from absolute points to a percentage of points played. That is, points per series played.
Australia currently leads the WTC table, with 82.2% of the points won. If they manage a 2-2 draw against India, they will continue to lead the table with a percentage of 74.17%, but if they lose 1-2, their percentage will fall to 70. New Zealand, if they win their two Test matches against Pakistan, will finish with 84 points per series played, or 70% of the points contested.When India, which currently has 360 points in four series played, finishes its series against Australia and England, it will have played six series or 720 points. It will need to surpass 504 points to surpass New Zealand’s score of 84 points per series or 70% of the points played. Each of their remaining Test victories will now be worth 30 points, and draws will give them 10 points. Five victories, or four victories and three draws, will leave them ahead of New Zealand.
As for the ranking, depending on how the India vs. Australia and New Zealand vs. Pakistan series go, Australia could extend its lead at number 1 or concede ground to New Zealand.
